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COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2019
Market Outlook He expected this year to have a lot of volatility just like last year. US-China trade talks, Brexit, North Korea and Mexico have created that this year. He was fully invested going into the year. He has taken a lot of profit and has built up his cash position -- up to 55%. Anything goes this summer, he thinks. You will probably see a couple of times where corrections could be close to 10%. You need an active manager to keep you nimble.
Market Outlook He expected this year to have a lot of volatility just like last year. US-China trade talks, Brexit, North Korea and Mexico have created that this year. He was fully invested going into the year. He has taken a lot of profit and has built up his cash position -- up to 55%. Anything goes this summer, he thinks. You will probably see a couple of times where corrections could be close to 10%. You need an active manager to keep you nimble.
Kim Bolton
President and Portfolio Manager, Black Swan Dexteritas
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2019
The last 9 months have been a challenge: ultra-low interest rates globally and Trump's sudden tweets. You don't know how to react. He's keeping his clients calm. The US has hit its top range, the S&P at 2,900-3,000. We'll be rangebound between 2,700-3,000 until there's real news, like Trump is re-elected or not. Also, the US Fed has become so politicized and is no longer effective. The fact that Trump is telling the Fed how to manage rates...really? The markets expect a rate cut this summer; it could happen. The big infrastructure spending plan will emerge in the next US campaign. He does not see a recession, but we'll see a rotation out of North America into cheap, cheap markets.
The last 9 months have been a challenge: ultra-low interest rates globally and Trump's sudden tweets. You don't know how to react. He's keeping his clients calm. The US has hit its top range, the S&P at 2,900-3,000. We'll be rangebound between 2,700-3,000 until there's real news, like Trump is re-elected or not. Also, the US Fed has become so politicized and is no longer effective. The fact that Trump is telling the Fed how to manage rates...really? The markets expect a rate cut this summer; it could happen. The big infrastructure spending plan will emerge in the next US campaign. He does not see a recession, but we'll see a rotation out of North America into cheap, cheap markets.
Terry Shaunessy
President & portfolio manager, Shaunessy Investment Counsel
COMMENT
COMMENT
June 12, 2019
High-frequency trading through ETFs. So if investors go short, won't this be reflected in buying at the end of the trading day and hurt retail investors? It creates a lot of volume--and noise. Remember ETFs trade very closely to their NAV, meaning they'll be off by only a little. Don't worry, unless you are trading ETFs a lot. Andi f you are, it's cheaper to trade a lot of stocks than a lot of ETFs, because it's cheaper (given the MERs on ETFs). Unfortunately, in Canada you don't get real-time NAV ticker for ETFs (in America you do)--and this bugs him.
High-frequency trading through ETFs. So if investors go short, won't this be reflected in buying at the end of the trading day and hurt retail investors? It creates a lot of volume--and noise. Remember ETFs trade very closely to their NAV, meaning they'll be off by only a little. Don't worry, unless you are trading ETFs a lot. Andi f you are, it's cheaper to trade a lot of stocks than a lot of ETFs, because it's cheaper (given the MERs on ETFs). Unfortunately, in Canada you don't get real-time NAV ticker for ETFs (in America you do)--and this bugs him.
Terry Shaunessy
President & portfolio manager, Shaunessy Investment Counsel