HOLD

Costs and loan loss provisions were both a bit higher than expected last quarter. Usually get 7-10% compound return over time. Over 10 years, return was 13% annualized. Over 15-20 years, 12%. Likes RY for capital markets and wealth management. HSBC acquisition has turned out well. Dividends are growing for all the banks, but not hugely. Owns this one, doesn't touch the rest.

COMMENT
Canadian banks.

He favours insurance companies over banks right now. What's going to happen to all those people who bought houses in 2020 with 20% down, with 5-year fixed mortgages at 1.5%? The value of their home has dropped 20%, now they have no equity in their house, and they suddenly become high risk. 

Canadian banks haven't yet had to face this problem. If payments double or triple, and more income has to be allocated to debt repayment, that will impact loan loss provisions and profitability. Most banks raised provisions, but not enough. BOC may have to lower rates to keep the economy going, and that's not good for banks either.

BUY

Going back 10-15 years has been excellent. Facing issues of tariffs, FDA approval, manufacturing in US. Revenues are still growing 6%, well above average. Biggest fear is how will AI impact healthcare sector moving forward. Will some fantastic pill come along to fix people? If so, this name would be at risk. Flipside is the aging population.

Pension funds and institutions have shied away from healthcare right now. Things are not as bad as they're made out to be. Portfolio position is 2.5%; he's going to dollar-cost average and buy more. Yield is 3.5%.

BUY

Tariffs, supply chains, and deliveries. Down 40% YTD. Short term headwinds, long term who knows? Will things ease up over time or get worse? Good time to buy a quality name. Metrics hit home, amongst the best in the industry. ROIC is 10%, WACC is ~8% -- still making FCF.

Companies like this one, that can turn profits into free cash, can get through the tough times and continue business as usual. Margins will be hurt in short term, but you have to think long term. Increased dividend.

DON'T BUY

Medicare patient costs went through the roof. Disappointing profits, withdrew financial guidance (which scared Wall Street to death). WSJ article commented that aggressive business practices made it vulnerable to regulatory scrutiny. Medicare and Medicaid changes could mean lower revenues and higher costs. 

Won't rebound anytime soon, especially with the big beautiful tax bill. Will probably go sideways.

BUY

Everyone was shorting it in the 2000s, and now it's one of the most favoured stocks on the TSX. Up 13% YTD. He owns it in TFSAs. Helped by global acquisitions. Combined ratio ~94%. Underwriting has improved, costs kept in line. Almost every operation it has is showing profitability.

Estimated PE for this year is about 10x, normal for insurance industry. Has hit a high, but it's one you want to own for the long term. He continues to buy for clients.

DON'T BUY

Medical equipment. Not performed great in the last while due to competition. Plus, they took their eyes off the ball. Long-term returns not great, 5-year compound annual performance is -4%. He owns SYK instead -- 5-year performance is 15%.

BUY

5-year performance is 15%, creates returns on ROIC, well run, quality.

TOP PICK

Long-term wonderful company. Very little debt. Sells, rents, and leases equipment. If economy slows, can fall back on revenues from servicing equipment. Increases dividend ~10% a year. A stock with a lot less volatility, which can grow slowly over time. Decent time to buy right now.

His 3 Top Picks today are based on ROIC vs. WACC. As inflation and rates go up, things will get tighter. But this company can still generate ROIC (12%) higher than WACC (9%). Even if urban construction slows down, the resource sector is picking up (gold prices are up, so miners are demanding equipment). Yield is 1.74%.

(Analysts’ price target is $128.89)
TOP PICK

If we get a slowdown globally due to tariffs, consumer discretionary will struggle. This name is healthcare, personal care, and cleaning. Wanting to spin off lower-margin businesses. Much more globally intertwined than PG and others; 60% of revenues are outside NA. Global reach to improve margins and cut costs.

Struggling last few years, but over time you still get 10% return and very little risk. In one of the least volatile sectors. (Price target is in pounds.) Yield is 3.27%.

(Analysts’ price target is $59.15)
TOP PICK

Likes the stickiness to both personal and corporate clients -- once you get into the network, it's very hard to get out. Cloud business has improved significantly. If quantum computing ever comes to the forefront, MSFT is there. 

ROIC is 23% vs. WACC of 9%. This gives them lots of cashflow to pour money into the next greatest thing. R&D development is important, given how fast things are changing these days. Yield is 0.72%.

(Analysts’ price target is $513.08)
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It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Stockchase Premium

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

FFH will keep chugging along under fine management, improving combined ratios and pure momentum. Bay Street is flashing buy signals and an 11% price target to $2,600. The main drawback with Fairfax is its share price, currently above $2,300. Don't expect a stock split anytime soon. However, if your pockets are deep and your horizon is long, then FFH is right for you.

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It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Stockchase Premium

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

However, if you want a higher return and can swallow the risk, then SNPS on the Nasdaq could more your speed. The tech company enjoys a duopoly in semiconductor design. Their Anysys acquisition should add value, while AI will continue to be a tailwind. Its EBITDA per share growth lies in the top 10% com-pared with peers globally. Earnings are robust and have beaten in the last four quarters with room to spare.

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It's a Monthly Gems opinion which is available only for Stockchase Premium

Curated by Allan Tong since 2019.
99+ opinions with 4.15 rating.

TOP PICK

This juggernaut is too big to ignore. At the end of May, it reported yet another top and bottom line beat and issued rosy guidance. Numbers are supported by continued strong demand for its chips, particularly in the age of AI and despite Trump's export restrictions to China. Cloud providers, governments and businesses keep buying their stuff. Nvidia is truly an excellent company.

COMMENT
New tariff threats on steel and aluminum.

Markets are becoming somewhat desensitized to the rapidly changing tariff outlook. President "TACO" spoke out on Friday, so markets didn't have a real chance to respond. So last night, as futures opened, they were softening. But this morning, we're right back to an upswell on the day for the US market.

On today's Educational Segment, he'll talk about where he thinks the focus will go and, ultimately, hard economic data and how the economy will play out in the back half of the year with all these things factored in.