COMMENT
Canadian companies amidst the trade war.

Difficult to manage what's happening because there's lots of uncertainty out there. He feels that a lot of businesses are holding off on certain capex spending, front-running some things to get ahead of tariffs. 

Still, markets have been pretty healthy. Since the April 8 lows, we're up about 13-14%. Generally, investor sentiment has been improving. Tariff tension is de-escalating somewhat. Seeing positive economic data and a pause on new tariffs. Steady job growth in the US is restoring confidence in the overall market.

COMMENT
Trade talks.

US and China are going to start talks this week. While that's big news, he's not sure if it's more about de-escalation or about a deal. We'll see. In any light, it's positive.

Looking ahead, we have US mid-term elections coming up. The administration is going to need to get supporters back onside. Need to get the economy relatively strong, and get those votes; otherwise, they'll lose the House.

COMMENT
The Fed.

In a bit of a conundrum. Do they raise rates ahead of possible inflation, or are they concerned about an economic downturn? Right now it's stable, and the market's enjoying that.

COMMENT
Markets.

Expects choppiness to continue. Out of the woodwork, we just saw tariffs on movies that are filmed outside the US. Geopolitical tensions around the world, political uncertainty. But when do we ever have blue skies and clear sailing?

He is constructively optimistic that, as trade tensions come down, we'll see markets slowly melt upwards.

DON'T BUY

Remember that when you look at tech and tech-related stocks, they do make up about 50% of the S&P 500. So you're taking on quite a bit of concentration in that sector. For example, TSLA is in the consumer discretionary space, but we think of it as tech. Same as AMZN.

He'd prefer a more balanced approach such as EQL.

BUY

Likes the equal weight strategy. Gives you a lower valuation than a straight-up S&P ETF, and less exposure to the technology space.

WAIT

200-day MA is moving up a bit, which is positive. However, the price fell below that 200-day in April (as did a lot of stocks). About 30% below March highs. Always commands a premium valuation due to brand. Fallen below 200-week MA. Paying 30x forward PE, but only 8-9% earnings growth for next 3 years. 

Recovery's been slow. Depends on consumer, especially in China. Long term, great name. Wait for better opportunity.

BUY

Big names in banks, energy, utilities. Very nice dividend yield, about 4% and change (going forward, it's ~6% after recent drop in the market). Nice, balanced way to get good dividend yield. Not high growth, but more reliable growth in the 7-8% EPS growth range.

DON'T BUY

Missed 2 key metrics. Past year has been quite sideways, more of a trading stock. Above 200-day MA, but that 200-day MA has been quite flat. Forward earnings estimates have ratcheted down a bit, but you're still paying ~30x forward PE. That's problematic. 200-week MA seems to be steadily moving higher.

Longer term, will face lots of competition in the space as well as regulatory risk.

BUY

Might be affected on today's news that AAPL will be adding some AI-search capabilities to its browsers. Still likes it. Down 27% from highs earlier this year. Still above 200-week MA, which is moving higher. Winner long term. Trades at 18x forward PE for 13-14% EPS growth. Embedding AI solutions across its ecosystem. Still the leader in digital advertising, cloud continues to grow. There will be choppiness against expectations.

While there will be continued competition in AI, this name has so many engines for growth. Not going anywhere.

HOLD

All-time high today. Probably overbought, with RSI at 77, so don't buy more today. Very little competition. Pricing power. Aging demographics. US medication usage can only increase over time, especially weight-loss segment.

SELL

Tariffs aren't in place at this point. Tariff talks are coming up this weekend, and things can change on a dime. A year from now, he doesn't see tariffs in place at the levels first announced. Worries on that front are premature.

Technically, the stock is great -- higher highs, higher lows. Valuation's up there at 38x forward PE, for 7-7.5% earnings growth. Expensive at over 5x PEG.

SELL

Great company and franchise, but valuation got expensive.

BUY

US financials have been one of the better places to be so far this year. Went down with the whole tariff thing in April, but rebounded nicely. Financials should be one of the top places to be by the end of this year. He likes it on deregulation and tax decrease themes. Starting to see technical signs that the sector is starting to make moves to be one of the leaders again. MER is only 8 bps.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 02/24, Down 4%)Reports tomorrow.

Trades at 20x EBIT over EBITDA, about normal. Shares are below a declining 200-day MA, but still above 200-week MA. Rising input costs of labour and commodities, as well as competition, have really held shares back. Question of saturation in Canada. Challenge to scale meaningfully outside NA. Franchise execution risk.