DON'T BUY

On the chart it's a buy. But price to growth is unhinged. Don't buy this one.

BUY

Pretty well a value stock. You can go ahead and buy this one.

BUY
META vs. MSFT

A month ago, he reduced his tech holdings a lot. Thirst for AI continues pretty strong. Economic environment would have to be pretty tough for this name to go down too much more, but that could happen.

Both names are great. MSFT is a bit more expensive. META can suffer more on advertising if we go into a tougher economic environment. If you're confident that Trump wants to win the midterms and wants to be popular, and that we're going to avoid the worst-case outcome, you can buy both at these levels. Between the two, META gets the nod.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 0.2%)

Loves the name longer term, but sold a month back. Disappointing when you pick a stock that's the belle of the ball until the Trump wrecking ball comes along. Growing ~19%, trading at 23x. Not expensive. Analysts are assuming clarity; if we don't get it, estimates will fall. 

Be careful. Never forget that lots of people have made stunning amounts of money for a long period of time. These stocks don't owe you anything. If you're going to buy, do it incrementally.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 23%)

Insurance companies have been better insulated from tariffs. Interest rates going up would help them. Really nice beat on Q4, really clean earnings (uncharacteristic after the last 20 years). Growing 12%, trading at 8.2x. Yield is 4%, growing ~8% a year. Asset sales. 

Could still be a Top Pick in an environment like this.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick May 15/24, Up 34%)

Executing so well. High catastrophic losses, but ROE still at 16.5%. Underwriting beat. Strong Q4. Canadian and US commercial beat. Firing on all cylinders, resilient in this environment. Trading ~17.5x 2026, growing ~16%. Not a bad buy, but don't chase -- can probably get at $270.

WAIT

Dangerous name to be out of. Huge run, strong Q1. Reinforced leadership in enterprise AI. Guidance is in line. Concern about government cuts, but overall average deal size up by 1/3. 18% growth, but trading at 40x 2026 and 33x 2027. A bit expensive PEG ratio. Have to pay up for good names, but wait for better entry when PEG closer to 1.

PARTIAL BUY
Sell puts, or stay away?

Last 2 quarters have not been good. EPS is the worst it's been since 2021. Tariff uncertainty, and company's saying it's not doing any M&A this year (but that's one of its embedded catalysts for growth). Earnings down 17-30% for 2025. FCF was up 40%. Management's seeing some accretion from recent acquisition.

All this negative news was said yesterday, and the stock had a great rally. Often a sign that sellers are washed out. But for that thesis to be correct, we need to avoid a darker economic outcome. Very cyclical. Sees 20% growth in 2026-2028, assuming there's a rebound. 

Cheap enough at 11x 2026. On days like today, yes, he'd sell puts with a $90-95 or so strike. Know that growth stocks can go down a lot in dark economic times. This stock is going to go back to former highs and beat them, and you want to be there for that.

HOLD

Start with valuation -- 10x 2026 for 12% growth. A few bad quarters with a weaker US, which caught market by surprise. Outlook improving. Worst-case on the tariff war (which is not his base case), there will be less $$ floating around to buy insurance products. 

Don't buy this name right now. Longer term you're fine. Steady compounder, safe dividend that will grow. Instead, he'd buy MFC on its cheaper valuation (which, for him, makes it safer).

DON'T BUY

Q1 was a much-needed low-drama quarter. Schwab sale. Market appreciated the quicker CEO transition. Wealth management good, strong capital markets. Still trading at a premium to the group, and that's not warranted because of growth limits in US.

All banks are at risk if economy darkens. But if economic environment is OK, he thinks BMO has the best upside.

BUY

All banks are at risk if economy darkens. But if economic environment is OK, he thinks BMO has the best upside. Most exposure outside the US. Good valuation.

TRADE

Trying to diversify. Q4 was steady, improving box office, strong roster of movies. Showing more dependable FCF. Tough stock in a tough industry. Very cheap at 9x 2026. Hasn't had steady earnings for years. Can have a good run when movie slate is strong.

Buy at $6-7, sell on strength. Dividend probably not coming back.

COMMENT
Evaluating stocks.

Know that anything can happen with any stock. But it's a matter of risk/reward and what scenario is more likely.

DON'T BUY

About 27% natural gas. Not sure exactly what their breakeven on oil price is, probably ~$52 or so. Oil's come down quite a bit on Saudi moves and global demand issues. Trades at a premium (7x) to peers (5x). Good production profile this year. Cashflow per share growth. Really good balance sheet, as is payout ratio.

If you think oil's going to $70-80, go ahead and buy. He's not so sure about that. Other places are easier to invest.

TOP PICK

The theme for today is "What wins Stanley Cups is defense." Very defensive name. Rare combination of dividend that grows every year by ~7%, value, resilience. Trades at discount of 23% to NAV; he expects this to narrow to 10-15% as the company scales more into alternative assets. 

Tepid sentiment on GWO has provided an opportunity to buy; now has upwards earnings momentum. Trades at 9x PE, growing at 14.6%. May be able to get it slightly cheaper. Yield is 4.80%. 

(Analysts’ price target is $52.72)