DON'T BUY

Has never owned. The only oil stock he owns right now is CNQ.

BUY

The only oil stock he owns. Earnings this morning were pretty good. Cyclical business, but has never cut dividend. Well run, low-cost producer. Good upside and good downside protection. 

One of the great energy companies in NA, great runway. Long-life reserves. Will be in decent shape even if oil prices soften; break-even is ~$40 WTI. Yield is 5+%.

BUY

This is the one he likes in the space. Part of its business is very utility-like. Steady dividend, which will rise over time. Dividend also looks attractive in the face of an economic slowdown when interest rates would fall. Hold for the long haul.

More pipeline builds would certainly be an opportunity for growth for this name, but that's not why he owns it.

SELL

Has done well over time, but he far prefers ADP.

BUY

Likes it. Largest payroll provider in NA. Outperformed PAYX over the last 1-, 5-, and 10-year periods. Extremely good growth, incredibly efficient. Huge market share. Expanding offerings by expanding services into related areas, but it's all automated so labour costs avoided. Still room to grow.

Huge FCF, buying back shares, raising dividend.

BUY

Best-performing insurer through the financial crisis. Largest foreign insurer in India, so not just in Canada. Great job in life insurance and asset management. Conservatively run. Steady dividend grower. Looking for 7-10% earnings growth over time. Core holding for him.

BUY

Core holding in his global portfolio. Eaten INTC's lunch. Believes there's at least double-digit (10%) annualized upside over the next 5 years. Earnings will jump significantly this year with Arizona plant coming on stream. Growth over the next 2-3 years will be in the 15-20% annualized range.

Companies like NVDA must use TWM.

COMMENT
When to buy?

He'd sell a stock today if he didn't think it offered upside. By owning a stock, and buying it for new clients, he thinks there's more upside.

DON'T BUY

Valuation keeps him out. Some plays you just miss. Amazed by how well it's navigated competition and expanding delivery services. Management's done an outstanding job. 

BUY
CNR vs CP

Owns both, core holdings. No one's building any more rails. Cheaper to ship commodities by rail than any other way. If an economic slowdown, traffic and volumes will slow down but it's still a pretty steady business. 

If the trade war goes on, everything gets more expensive and these two will be impacted negatively. But these events are always temporary. Trade wars are not good for inflation or the economy with US mid-term elections only 2 years away. He's trusting that rational minds will prevail.

BUY
CNR vs CP

Owns both, core holdings. No one's building any more rails. Cheaper to ship commodities by rail than any other way. If an economic slowdown, traffic and volumes will slow down but it's still a pretty steady business. 

If the trade war goes on, everything gets more expensive and these two will be impacted negatively. But these events are always temporary. Trade wars are not good for inflation or the economy with US mid-term elections only 2 years away. He's trusting that rational minds will prevail.

TOP PICK

Positioned higher on the socio-economic side than Visa or MA, so it doesn't have a lot of credit problems. Absolutely spectacular track record. Extremely profitable right through the entire financial crisis. Earnings growth at the 15% annualized level, trades at only 18x. Excess cash generation. Repurchased ~40% of stock in last 20 years. Yield is 1.17%, keeps jacking it up.

Also a core holding of his good friend Warren Buffett ;)

(Analysts’ price target is $324.71)
TOP PICK

Worst-performing Canadian bank over the last decade, and that's one of the reasons he likes it. New CEO has freedom to exit under-performing businesses, especially in Latin America. Proceeds are being reinvested in NA. Earnings poised to rise significantly next year as capital gets properly allocated. 

Not expecting outperformance. But yield is 6.11%, and with improvement in growth and other metrics should deliver at least a 10% annualized return for the next 5 years.

(Analysts’ price target is $78.08)
TOP PICK

Largest producer in the world, focused on premium brands. Stock's at 10-year low. Post-Covid revenues have flattened out, but earnings poised to rise. Wall Street's not enamoured with management, but the company can afford to hire the best -- there are rumblings, though no action yet. Cheap valuation of 16x PE. Looking for a return to 7-10% earnings growth. Hoping the stock will be a double over 5 years. Yield is 2.87%.

Things have slowed down in Latin America. Some brands have underperformed. Lots of articles on how alcohol might not be great for you. People may be drinking less, but they're drinking "better". Consumers tend to return to behaviours over time. (The big trans fat scare of 25 years ago has not stopped people from eating french fries.)

(Analysts’ price target is $126.38)
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Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O’Reilly

This Mexican based oil and gas producer with production in Argentina as well, recently reported a 50% increase in production and revenues.  It trades at 10x earnings, 2.7x book and supports a ROE of 33%. We recommend setting a stop-loss at $35, looking to achieve $59 — potential upside over 28%. Yield 0.4%

(Analysts’ price target is $69.44)