BUY ON WEAKNESS
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

PXT is targeting average production of 45,000 boe/day in 2025. Capital expenditures will be $300M. Cash flow $445M and free cash flow $145M after dividends. This is essentially down a fraction from Q4 production results. The balance sheet is still strong and cash flow good. The dividend can still be paid IF the company wants to. It has renewed its share buyback. Essentially, analysts comments are reflecting 'lacklustre growth' and this forecast is not likely to be a catalyst for the stock, even though it remains very cheap on all metrics. 
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BUY
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

We would consider it a nice little small cap, and priced well at 11X earnings. One analyst covers it. It is a competitive, cyclical business but TGH has managed to grow consistently and keep its balance sheet strong. Gross margin is 18%. Net 7%. Tariffs may be a concern, and in its breakdown the autosector is a big customer which is another cyclical/tariff risk. Insiders own 30% which is good. We could see it owned as part of a small cap basket along with several other small companies. 
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COMMENT
Trevor Rose’s Insights - Trevor’s most-liked answers from 5i Research

Tech themes that created investing opportunities:

Microprocessors

The development of the microprocessor, and semiconductors, truly advanced global technology. Suddenly, personal computers became commonplace, resulting in higher productivity and significant cost savings to customers. The world, and particularly North America, went from building things to becoming a service economy, with resulting loftier profit margins. Companies such as Intel Corp., which became the biggest semiconductor company in the world in 1992, saw their stocks soar. Intel stock rose 11 years in a row from 1989 to 1999, including a 95 per cent return in 1992 and a 132 per cent return in 1996. International Business Machines Corp. (IBM) was another big winner from this trend, though not to the same degree.

The internet

This development is likely much more widely known, since everyone uses the internet now. We know about the dotcom days and how nearly every company in the world was scrambling to make sure they got a piece of the internet action. Certainly, the ‘net helped companies drive costs down and it opened up the entire world as potential customers. Amazon.com Inc. is the poster child of stocks in this era, with a 966 per cent gain in its stock in 1998. It then crashed hard (80 per cent) in 2000, but is up about 250-fold since then.
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COMMENT

The Trump tariffs are a wake-up call. The next government needs to consider how to protect ourselves from this situation without getting rid of the US, but having other options for our natural resources amid all sectors. Mexico and Europe (will) have the same problem.

COMMENT

He prefers the senior gold names. Now is similar to 2010-2012 when gold producers paid more dividends. Is watching which of the smaller companies will pay dividends, which he welcomes. However, AEM has stopped increasing its dividend and has been taken off the dividend aristocrat list.

WATCH

Watch this because shares have fallen far and Brookfield is involved with them in a serious way. Watch their next two quarterly reports.

WATCH

During the Trump tariff sell-off yesterday, TD may have been the best performer among the Big Five banks, partly because shares are down far already, but also because they are diversified outside Canada. The more Canadian-exposed banks got hit worse. Nobody knows the impact of tariffs, but TD is in a better position than peers.

BUY

Likes it short and long term. They touch 30% of all LNG and 25% natural gas in North America. There was data centre hype in this stock, but faded after DeepSeek last week. Pays a 5% dividend yield. Likes it more after spinning off South Bow, a pure play natural gas company.

DON'T BUY

REITs are very correlated to interest rate expectations. Last year, he took a close look at this and was not enthused. Immigration is gone, no longer a tailwind, and its dividend is merely okay. Long-term, office REITs have the best outlook in REITs.

BUY ON WEAKNESS
Will they be exempt from Trump tariffs because they sell FDA-approved products?

He remains a big fan of the company. They've increased margins and revenues. The tariffs have impacted shares. He isn't panicking but rather buying on weakness, including yesterday. Volatility will continue. The US makes up 33% of sales, and because SIS has a lot of manufacturing in the US so those sales should conform with the tariffs. If FDA-approved products, like elevators are exempt, that would raise the US percentage. Ultimately, SIS will navigate tariffs which won't last forever.

BUY

Owns a serious position. Happy that shares have returned to all-time highs after capital projects are now online as they raised the dividend. The only potential impact of tariffs would be spot volumes on the mainline flowing into the US. Would be minor pain. And we don't know how long tariffs will last. Cooler heads will prevails, especially in energy which are so integrated between Canada and the US.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 10/24, Up 54%)

He held this a long time, patiently. Shares finally broke above $28 last year after a long repair period. There remains upside as it raises its dividend and has diversified sales in North America and Asia.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 10/24, Up 27%)

Among the best-managed in Canadian energy. Likes the balance of owning infrastructure, condensate production (prices could rise during tariffs) and LNG development on the west coast.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 10/24, Down 30%)

The bar wasn't high for them last year, but they still didn't exceed it. Wind performance remains an issue and the ambiguous management change caused unrest. Also, they had a problem with a sub-contractor in Taiwan where a death (not their fault) created bad press. They just hired a new CEO, who came from CNQ's board and Total, who will maintain the 7.3% dividend and will hit milestones in offshore wind (not exposed to the US, which is good). He likes the new CEO. They are in the building/development cycle, which they are good at. It's very positive. He would make this a top pick.

HOLD

Share have gone done, but actually rose in the second half of 2024. The new CEO is unknown, so he's TBD with the market. But so far, there's better performance in key metrics. It takes time to turn around a large company, like 2, 4 or even 10 years. But there's little competition among Canadian banks and you collect a nice dividend as you wait. He's happy to stay the course.