COMMENT
Long-term hold for a 19-year old -- JNJ, KO, or MA? CDR or the actual security?

His preference is to buy in the US market. Use the US exposure and its strong economy to your benefit. Our CAD is weaker because our economy is weaker and not growing as quickly. Canada is also burdened with excess regulation, productivity levels are poor. Could turn around, but he doesn't see any immediate catalyst on the horizon.

For a young person, you want something with growth characteristics. You want something growing faster than the average company in the market. Though the 3 suggestions are all good companies, he'd go with the credit card space, but buy Visa instead of MA. Visa is a better version than MA and at an undemanding multiple, with more international exposure; reported very nice numbers last week.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 13/24, Down 16%)

A cyclical, and last year was poor for them all due to China's weakness. Deferral of EV adoption. Have to be patient. Story is still intact. Copper demand still rising at 2-3x what GDP is growing at, and supply is finite.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 13/24, Up 33%)

Bought on promise of its AI partnerships. Moved up steadily, but he worried that legacy businesses were lagging. He sold when valuations got into low 20s. Have to know when to buy, and when to sell.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 13/24, Up 41%)

Still likes. Earnings last week were very strong. One of every two humans uses a META product every day. Instagram and Threads are growing very strongly. A terrific hold. Trades at only a slight premium to the market, and reasonable against its own history.

COMMENT
Looking for a US income stock.

There are a variety of traditional stocks that pay high dividends, but their purpose in life is to pay out that dividend. So they tend not to be growthy stocks. Be aware of, and avoid, companies that have grown into a high yield; in other words, their stock price has fallen and created a higher yield. WBA is an example of a company that deteriorated, not the company it was, suspended the dividend.

Options would include consumer staples, telecom, or a company like PM. They traditionally pay out nice dividends and are stable.

WATCH

Analyze companies day by day, ask if it's still meeting expectations. He owns this one in his Canadian portfolio, and in his US small-cap. Last week, it reaffirmed 2025 growth expectations. More than 1/2 its business is directed at data centre development. Parabolic move, but fundamentals have also grown very well. Valuation still undemanding. 

Keep an eye on it, and don't get carried away with price momentum. Trim if it gets too big a position in your portfolio. There's a difference between a trim (portfolio management) and a sell (based on fundamental value).

WATCH

Analyze companies day by day, ask if it's still meeting expectations. He owns this one in his Canadian portfolio, and in his US small-cap. Last week, it reaffirmed 2025 growth expectations. More than 1/2 its business is directed at data centre development. Parabolic move, but fundamentals have also grown very well. Valuation still undemanding. 

Keep an eye on it, and don't get carried away with price momentum. Trim if it gets too big a position in your portfolio. There's a difference between a trim (portfolio management) and a sell (based on fundamental value).

DON'T BUY

AI is going to revolutionize the ability to deliver its products in a more dynamic and easier way. But is the company moat going to be as wide? Will we be able to use almost any product to give us what we thought was so special about ADBE? Not top of mind for him right now.

DON'T BUY

Historic growth story of Pepsi was the Frito-Lay franchise. Not the growth company it was. Still trades at a reasonably high multiple for its growth rate. International sources of revenue, so the strong USD is a major headwind.

Companies in the snack space have traded off on the fears of GLP-1. Volumes are starting to drop. Growth metrics just don't support the valuations.

DON'T BUY

These companies have traded off on the fears of GLP-1. Volumes starting to drop. Growth metrics just don't support the valuations in the space. About 60% of revenue from international sources, so strong USD is a major headwind.

BUY
Reports this Wednesday before the bell.

Underpriced, misunderstood. Falls every time TSLA makes a statement about robotaxis, though there's no direct relationship. Will have a piece of a much bigger pie. Coordinating with Waymo. Advertising is untapped. Very well managed. 

Now part of the S&P 500, so it's part of the passive buying of index funds and ETFs. Lots of promise at this price.

COMMENT
S&P 500 -- choose market-cap weighted?

Mag 7 control about 33% of the entire weighting of the index. So a cap-weighted index fund actually adds risk to your investment thesis. He loves some of the Mag 7 companies, but he doesn't have as high a weighting as the S&P 500 does. Drill down into the S&P 493 (so to speak) for good opportunities and good value.

TOP PICK

Finally caught fire, and for good reason. Monetizing their efforts, which is flowing to the bottom line. EPS starting to expand more rapidly. Multiple's fallen from stratospheric levels down to mid-40s; should fall rapidly from here, as EPS likely to grow at 20+% over the next few years. 

On e-commerce, has grown into fulfillment centre development. Mammoth AI opportunity. Reports on Thursday -- watch the AWS cloud number. Last week, MSFT was a bit shy on Azure. No dividend.

(Analysts’ price target is $254.58)
TOP PICK

Loves the money-centre banks. Not quite as expensive as JPM, but more interest-rate sensitive. A gently falling interest-rate environment (which he thinks will come to pass, though it's up for debate), net interest margins will widen and that's traditionally good for banks. Capital markets business has really built up, and will open up post-Biden. Economy in pretty good shape. Undemanding valuation. Yield is 2.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $52.46)
TOP PICK

Catastrophes tend to give pricing power to P&C insurers. Very fine combined ratio (or, in other words, its margins). Makes about a 15% margin on its underwriting. Invests ~$127B of premiums to great advantage in the bond market. Steady. Yield is 1.3%.

(Analysts’ price target is $302.48)