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The next earnings can't be okay but way above average to sustain current valuations. The US economy grew well in Q4, but must translate into earnings. A stronger US dollar will be a headwind for earnings, but expectations for the next few years is low/double-digit growth. He doesn't think earnings can maintain these levels. We've had two strong years in US stocks, but that won't repeat. Microsoft's announcement to spend on AI triggered today's rally. Trump: Canada won't be a 51 state, tariffs are disruptive and that's a headwind. Trump's platform will cost $5-7.5 trillion over the next 4 years and how will he pay for that? World governments have not done a good job with tax dollars, which may explain a shift to the right.
It gives you a 60/40 portfolio and it rebalances for you every few quarters. It's exposed to Canadian and international bonds as well as stocks. It's not a nice vehicle for the average investor looking for a passive solution to markets. Though not the best solution, it is cheap. The problem is the balance; better are risk-managed ETFs that offer more growth without bonds in the mix.
The Bank of Canada is cutting interest rates way faster than the U.S. because our economy has been weaker. So, the bond markets has done a lot better here. That said, everything is priced against what's happening in the US treasury market, and this creates upside pressure which therefore limits the Canadian bond market from getting too much stronger. Rates are decent now. We won't go back to very low rates. We could see a few more rate cuts ahead, but not change the 5-year yield that much.
It makes sense. You can lock in losses, but he can't advise without knowing the caller's tax situation. He expects BCE to cut their dividend, which could be when the stock bottoms. A cut looks inevitable. BCE has made mistakes in recent years.
It's more growth-oriented than the S&P 500. He expects less growth in the US this year than the 20% the last two years, so it's good to look at these buffered ETFs. They give reasonable upside, 8-15%, but also capital preservation around 10-15%. VUG are good to hold in this part cycle to stay invested in stock, with a lot less risk.
It's more growth-oriented than the S&P 500. He expects less growth in the US this year than the 20% the last two years, so it's good to look at these buffered ETFs. They give reasonable upside, 8-15%, but also capital preservation around 10-15%. VUG are good to hold in this part cycle to stay invested in stock, with a lot less risk.
The CAD from the time (8:00 pm EST last night) the Globe and Reported Justin Trudeau would resign the CAD sold off, then rose a little when European markets opened overnight, then jumped higher at 6:00 am after the Washington Post reported that Trump would impose sweeping tariffs, but fewer targeted ones. However, the CAD sank heading into Trudeau's resignation around 10:00 am. Minutes later, Trump tweeted that the Post is wrong and that full tariffs will happen. The CAD sank. So, the CAD will whipsaw in the coming months, based on the forthcoming Canadian election and Trump's tariffs. Over the last 5-0 years, the Canadian dollar has rarely been at levels as in the early-1970s. The last-1900s saw a bottom due to Canada's massive deficits and energy market not working. Today, fair value is around $1.25-1.30 and should return here in a year (or 1.5 years) if US tariffs are moderate and a change in the Canadian government. So, hedge assets with US exposure, including ETFs.
Shares have jumped nearly 50% since the election, which you can't dismiss, but you can't justify its PE now. That won't stop shares from climbing higher though, because PLTR is tight with Trump. According to a Palantir report last October, there used to be 51 defence contractors, but after merging there are now only five major companies. Rather than innovative, these companies are gaming government contracts. Trump appointed Elon Musk to the new Efficency Dept. and Musk is tight with the PLTR co-founder who is also a big Trump donor. There's talk of radically changing the Pentagon's procurement process, which could stir serious problems with defence contractors. This may be why defense stocks have fallen since the election. Then, Musk openly criticized Lockheed Martin, which stirred these fears. For pure defense stocks, wait and see. This sector is untouchable.
There used to be 51 defence contractors, but after merging there are now only five major companies. Rather than innovative, these companies are gaming government contracts. Trump appointed Elon Musk to the new Efficency Dept. and Musk openly criticized Lockheed Martin's F-35's design and should be replaced by drones. However the LMT CEO responded that enemies use fancy fighter jets of their own, and Israel recently effectively used F-35s against Iran. Musk's criticism have put the defence industry under a microscope, an industry that has always been sacrosanct. Nobody wants to be accused of being weak on defence. LMT is -14.77% since Trump was elected. Barclays just stated that defence remains difficult with more budget risk than thought, given Musk. For pure defense stocks, wait and see. This sector is untouchable.
Is up 151% in the last 2 years, but late-October they reported an imperfect quarter and closed the year -2%. Is the pullback deserved or not? Analysts are very mixed. KPMorgan is bearish, that valuations will be capped until Uber better addresses AVs (self-driving), or fears that Trump could pass laws that favour Tesla and Elon Musk. However, he notes that Uber doesn't build its own cars; others do. Bulls see growth in rides, particularly less-dense areas, such as outside London and Paris vs. those cities. Also, bulls say that the adoption of AVs will take years, a long time. Goldman Sachs sees a hybrid of humans and AVs in the sector. Also, Uber has huge cash flow and announced a major share buyback. Verdict: keep an eye on the AV competition like Waymo, but the last quarter had many huge positives, and the stock is cheap vs. its growth rate. Buying now is an opportunity at a discount.
