PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Sep 27/24, Up 13%)

(Note the short timeframe.)
Likes the longer-term chart, so continuing to look for points to leg in. His position is 2% currently. Chart's in an uptrend. Thinks market will pull back in next month or so, question is by how much.

HOLD

Probably his favourite energy stock. Great chart. Consolidating, will probably break out at some point. As long as it doesn't break the low around $22.50, stay in the trade.

COMMENT
Expiration today of stock options, index options, and ETF options -- with a notional value of ~$4.5T. Can often lead to volatility.

He's not a day trader, so is not going to make a decision based on one day's volume. Instead, he looks for patterns.

COMMENT
Volume, how to incorporate?

He does look at volume, as indicated at the bottom of stock charts. He's looking for confirmation of a move. If looking for a breakout, he likes moves off of the trendline, or a breakout from a consolidation. 

If you get a breakout, you absolutely, definitely want to see volume. One way to do it is to just look at the volume bars. But the way he likes to do it is to look at the money flow index (MFI). It's advance/decline x volume, with the momentum indicator of relative strength index (RSI) applied to it. Really, really helpful in helping him determine overbought, oversold, and if the move is legit. You can see examples on his blog.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

How could you not like this chart? It's not gone parabolic. Doing a nice little roundover, may pull back a tiny bit more due to market volatility. See where it is compared to the 200-day MA; if it's 15% or more then worry, and if it's under that don't.

BUY

Likes it. Just broken out past old high, positive. Likes stocks that consolidate, go up, and repeat. That's the pattern for this one. Fundamental analysis from his team gives lots of reasons it'll be a leader of the pack.

COMMENT
Wednesday's selloff.

It was due to the Fed.

The market always builds in expectations, sometimes like a spoiled child ;)  If it doesn't get not just what it wants, but more than what it wants, then it throws a little temper tantrum. So the market was priced for a perfect message, and the message wasn't absolutely perfect. There's not going to be as much softening in 2025 as hoped for.

For him, it's not the biggest issue right now. Rather, it's the overbought market.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Chart shows a nice rounded cup, and then went parabolic. A pullback would be the "handle" to the cup. Pullback might be to the top of the cup, ~$360. It probably won't drop that far, perhaps around $400. And then it will be on its way. Great-looking chart, probably lots of upside.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Good-looking chart, the trend is your friend. Slightly off its trendline, so a correction is probably due and you can buy on that pullback. Perhaps correcting to the $210 level.

DON'T BUY

It's broken. When a stock's broken support, you don't want to buy it.

HOLD

It's moved up, and is probably entering another consolidation phase. And if it's a good company, it'll move up again. Looking at a 1-year chart, it could be breaking down a bit on daily chart. Old resistance becomes new support, so $190-200 could be the potential target for that. Overall, not a bad longer-term picture.

WATCH

Just starting to break support. When it's this early into a break (a few days or a week), you have to cut it some slack. Sometimes you can get head fakes, so be careful. The old low from 2022 is a support level, and there's more support just above that. 

At this point, it's hard to tell. Give it a tiny bit of time. If it doesn't recover quickly, he wouldn't want to own it.

TRADE

Long-term base of support around $16-17, and seems stuck there. Just bounced off resistance. At this point, it's only a trend if there are higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows). Until it starts one of those 2 patterns, it's in consolidation. Not showing any signs of a real trend.

The only thing you can do with a stock that's consolidating is to swing-trade it.

COMMENT
Consolidation explained.

Long-term base of support, and seems stuck there. It's only a trend if there are higher highs and higher lows (or lower highs and lower lows). Until it starts one of those 2 patterns, it's in consolidation. Not showing any signs of a real trend.

The only thing you can do with a stock that's in a consolidation is to swing-trade it.

TOP PICK

Not 100% correlated to the S&P, so tends to have a slightly different profile. And yet, it's a way to play the US markets on a fairly broad basis. Won't necessarily have all the downside if the market falls. In an uptrend, though it's pulled back just like everything else. Worth picking up anytime it pulls back to the trendline. No dividend.

It's one of those things you really can hold on to for a while, and he holds onto hardly anything.

(Analysts’ price target is $491.33)