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This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

The airline holds 35% more international capacity than its nearest US competitor and just hit an all time single day volume day.  It trades at 7x earnings, under 2x book and supports a robust 32% ROE.  Cash reserves are growing while debt is aggressively retired.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $41, looking to achieve $72 -- upside potential of 18%.  Yield 0%

(Analysts’ price target is $71.65)
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

The largest offshore oil and gas driller, operating 53 rigs worldwide.  They beat 2nd quarter guidance as drilling contracts have extended longer -- they now hold over $4 billion in contract backlogs.  We like that it trades at 5x earnings, under 2x book and supports a ROE of 59%.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $40, looking to achieve $69 -- upside potential of 27%.  Yield 0%  

(Analysts’ price target is $87.45)
premium

This is a Panic-proof Portfolio opinion which is available only for Premium members

Curated by Michael O'Reilly since 2020.
1550+ opinions with 4.81 rating (one of the best performing expert).

TOP PICK
Stockchase Research Editor: Michael O'Reilly

This pharma company produces clinical stage drugs that aid the delivery of other therapeutics and they have been advancing a portfolio of RNA based programs.  It trades at 6x trailing earnings, under 1.5x book and supports a 32% ROE and has growing cash reserves.  We recommend setting a stop-loss at $13, looking to achieve $21 -- upside potential of 27%.  Yield 0%

(Analysts’ price target is $21.50)
COMMENT

Real estate has performed poorly the last 10 years. 2016-18 saw Trump adopt a growth-on mentality that allowed tech to take off, but at the expense of real estate stocks. Then, RE rebounded only for Covid to crush it in 2020--will people go to the office or mall again? But then, markets invested in data centres and cell towers for a year or two. Then, high interest rates crushed that rally in 2022. Now, the good news is an easing cycle in rates which will feed the appetite for RE stocks.

BUY
Given the housing shortage, is the focus on building new homes a tailwind for REITs?

Long-term, yes, for residential REITs, like apartment ones. They also benefit from more immigration. This leads to higher rents. InterRent, Minto and CAP are his preferreds in this space. CAP is the biggest, and they hold a super-quality portfolio that they've been upgrading in recent years. All these are focused in Ontario. but they benefit from lower interest rates. A caveat: Ottawa is slowing immigration to Canada, which feeds demand for apartments. Expect choppiness, but these are good holds.

WEAK BUY
Given the housing shortage, is the focus on building new homes a tailwind for REITs?

Long-term, yes, for residential REITs, like apartment ones. They also benefit from more immigration. This leads to higher rents. InterRent, Minto and CAP are his preferreds in this space. CAP is the biggest, and they hold a super-quality portfolio that they've been upgrading in recent years. All these are focused in Ontario. but they benefit from lower interest rates. A caveat: Ottawa is slowing immigration to Canada, which feeds demand for apartments. Expect choppiness, but these are good holds. Minto has a great relationship with a private developer who build high-quality homes. They have great capital discipline. But they are exposed to the Toronto market, and their quality homes puts them in competition with the current condo glut in Toronto. This won't hurt Minto's long-term, but the stock will be choppy.

BUY
Given the housing shortage, is the focus on building new homes a tailwind for REITs?

Long-term, yes, for residential REITs, like apartment ones. They also benefit from more immigration. This leads to higher rents. InterRent, Minto and CAP are his preferreds in this space. CAP is the biggest, and they hold a super-quality portfolio that they've been upgrading in recent years. All these are focused in Ontario. but they benefit from lower interest rates. A caveat: Ottawa is slowing immigration to Canada, which feeds demand for apartments. Expect choppiness, but these are good holds.

DON'T BUY

They rank among the top REITs in Canada and the U.S. They have a history of buying and spending well and adding a lot of value. They were a darling until Covid hammered the office market. Now, AP.UN faces a tough office market. Toronto remains a major city that hasn't returned to the office, so vacancy rates remain high. He doesn't know if this huge wave will return. But AP's dividend is sustainable, though it should be cut to do things like buyback stock and paying down debt.

BUY
A buyout possible?

A high-quality company in seniors living, benefiting from aging demographics. Same-location growth is impressive. The stock's momentum can continue. A caveat: the retirement space is vulnerable to disruption, given that no senior looks forward to entering a retirement home. But seniors are healthier now and they have more options. This trend will continue. So competition could enter this space, not now, but in the future. And yes, CSH is attractive to a private buyer. It's possible.

BUY

It's the largest provider of industrial real estate in the world, publicly traded, around 2-3% of global GDP flows through their buildings. E-commerce if fueling industrial RE, such as Amazon. Also, PLD uses analytics to help increase the flow of goods through their buildings. However, many people built such buildings, then higher interest rates drove up those costs. So, more supply and higher rates and slower rent growth weighed on this sector. The silver lining is that higher rates killed some projects, so the current supply will get absorbed and then rents will increase again. PLD is one of the best ways to play this.

BUY

It's had a tough time gaining scale, further hampered by high interest rates. They tried a strategic review, but didn't attract buyer interest. In the past month, they sold half their portfolio for 750 million Euros, which crystallized value and increased analyst views of ERE. They are intent on monetizing assets, and the stock price has a good margin of safety.

BUY

Customers tend to rent these spaces longer than they expected, and the rates are not crazy. So, it's a good business based on demand. Also, PSA doesn't need to spend much money on these buildings (who cares what their storage space looks like?) compared to an office building. Low capex, so cash flow is strong. PSA is a pioneer in this space and they have grown it well in past decades. A caveat is that low fewer home sales means that fewer people are selling their homes and putting stuff in storage, hence decreasing demand. That said, PSA is a quality long-term hold and lower interest rates will increase demand.

BUY

He doesn't like passive investing in REITs, because an ETF REIT can hold laggards like office REITs. He prefers an actively managed one like RIT.

COMMENT
private market in real estate

Private markets used to be for institutional investors, but are increasingly reaching retail investors. Blackstone is the largest player, and they launched a fund for retail investors. More players will enter this space as costs will decline. Public RE stocks will have to catch up to private market values (as they grow more popular) or the REITs will go private.

PARTIAL BUY

Holds quality Loblaw assets and industrial ones mostly located in cities. Same-store net income growth isn't super, but good. It won't shoot the lights out, but you can buy it comfortably for your grandmother.