On the recent pullback, he bought half a position, because he sees downside to the risk. On the pullback, NVDA's PE fell close to the level he wanted. It is one of the highest-quality tech margins, generating enormous free cash flow, 78% gross margins, 65% operating margins, no debt and capex is only 1% of sales.
Shares are down 27% from the June 18 peak. It's an industry leader and market-share taker and the management team even without the CEO who just left for Starbucks. The Interim CEO has been there since 2017 and been involved with the integration with technology, the culture and through-put. He can maintain momentum. She also likes that they re-set numbers: same-store sales are forecast at 6% instead of 7% due to higher food costs which is still an amazing comp. Share buybacks remain solid. Earnings are growing 15-20%.
Today's data corroborated the trends already in place, that inflation across NA is cooling. It gets people wondering when rate cuts will start? Not only is inflation cooling, but there are so many economic indicators (especially on the consumer side) showing how drastically things are slowing.
Inflation and rate cuts are two big things that are capturing investors' attention right now.
He doesn't think it would be 50 bps. Tough period macroeconomically because many signs of consumer weakness and a weakening economy, but on the flipside employment, wages, and stock market valuations are all still quite strong. So it would be difficult to justify a 50 basis point cut.
In a softening cycle versus a hardening cycle, rate cuts can be a lot more gradual. It doesn't preclude that down the road, the Fed could revert and raise again. Historically, that has happened a few times. A shorter, more shallow rate-cutting cycle to get the economy back on track, and then they have to raise again.
It's a potential move that you don't hear much about.
His pick. Let's see if demand broadens out.