COMMENT
VUN vs. VTI

With VUN, you get pretty much the entire US market; not too expensive at 16 bps. Keep in mind that the USD version, VTI, has a MER of 3 bps; be mindful, too, of foreign currency and US estate issues.

Over 3700 positions, market-cap weighted. Top 10 names represent about 20% of the portfolio. Lots of exposure to the tech space. Not all that different from the S&P 500.

COMMENT
VUN vs. VTI

With VUN, you get pretty much the entire US market; not too expensive at 16 bps. Keep in mind that the USD version, VTI, has a MER of 3 bps; be mindful, too, of foreign currency and US estate issues.

Over 3700 positions, market-cap weighted. Top 10 names represent about 20% of the portfolio. Lots of exposure to the tech space. Not all that different from the S&P 500.

DON'T BUY

Valuation's a bit rich for his models, 61x forward PE. Trading below 200-day MA on tough news in May. Shows that there's little margin for error in some of the high-flying tech stocks.

200-day is starting to flatten. Price to sales is about twice that of the S&P. Exciting, 35% growth rate, but you're paying a premium.

WEAK BUY
ZWB (7% yield) vs. Brompton ETF (15%) -- how can this be?

Bank stocks with an overlay of covered calls, which gives you a pretty tax-efficient yield of 7.4%. Canadian banks have been recovering a bit. Especially with rates moving down, dividend payers should improve a bit. 

Investors are attracted to the yield. The buffer zone of the yield can minimize volatility, however you'd get a better total return just owning the underlying banks. Makes sense if you need the income, but you're paying that MER and total return might be less.

He's not familiar with the Brompton strategy, but can only surmise that they're writing calls at the money, rather than out of the money. Or they're issuing return of capital to push the yield higher, until something goes wrong.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 12/23, Up 42%)

Still likes it. Leadership name, with little or no meaningful competition. Fantastic recent earnings report, with revenue growing 15% YOY, EPS growing 62% YOY. $70B USD share buyback. First-ever quarterly cash dividend. 

Ad revenue continues to be very strong as the economy continues to grow. YouTube is strong, Search is good, dominates mobile search. Optimism about AI. Cloud continues to grow, and it has 1/3 of the market share pie.

Clear uptrend of higher highs and higher lows. 200-day MA is moving higher. Still sees 15% earnings growth going forward.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 12/23, Up 44%)

Monopoly in high-end systems, immense pricing power. Last quarter's report had revenue growing 13% YOY, net profit up 9% YOY. Well positioned to participate in growth of semiconductor industry and the rise of AI.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jun 12/23, Down 15%)

Sold, based on disappointing recent earnings report. Lowered guidance for the full year, which prompts him to get out of the name and ask questions later. 4% decline in global same-store sales, 11% drop in China. Missed expectations. Channel of lower highs and lower lows since mid-2023, technically not great. Trading below 200-day MA, which itself is moving lower.

Sees 12% growth rate going forward, but now they have to fix what's happening in China. Geopolitical issues are affecting consumers globally. Brand continues to be iconic long term. He can see a point when he'd get back in, but not today.

BUY
How to monitor the threat of AI to GOOG's dominance, particularly in Search?

AI is still in very early stages. We don't know who the leaders will be in 10 years. He has no concerns that GOOG won't be one of the 2 or 3 companies that will lead the AI market, just given what they do. Most of its revenues come from digital advertising, and that business will continue to grow.

AI is not a large part of its revenue at this stage. It needs to grow that segment as do other tech companies.

WAIT

Ranks very well on his screens. Earnings continue to be very strong, seeing 12-13% for the next few years. Shares almost at an all-time new high. Leadership name. Close to being overbought at 52 RSI. Might be a cheaper place to get in, say, closer to the 100-day MA around $470-480.

Not really that fantastic a performer against the S&P 500 with 40% tech. It hits a lot of the markers on many different levels to be included in his portfolio, but it just hasn't quite made it yet. On his screens, it is in the top 25% of US growth names.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Great performer, hitting all-time highs, continues to like it. Combination of steady earnings with good secular growth. No meaningful competition. Charts don't get better than this, a series of higher highs and higher lows for the last couple of years. 200-day MA trending higher, and price is above that. Overbought at 77 RSI, so not buying for new clients.

Earnings are pretty steady. 10% growth rate, decent. Member loyalty is astounding, price has been increased slowly over time. Pricing power is so powerful because they have fewer different items, but in higher volumes.

(Analysts’ price target is $835.00)
WEAK BUY

Chart looks pretty good, trading above 200-day MA. Higher highs and higher lows this year. Pretty good PEG ratio, fairly cheap valuation. Trades at 15x estimated earnings, not bad at all.

Prefers growthier areas, such as weight loss and diabetes, and distributors such as CAH and MCK.

BUY

In pharma space, prefers growthy areas such as distributors like CAH and MCK.

BUY

In pharma space, prefers growthy areas such as distributors like CAH and MCK.

HOLD
For a TFSA?

The one drawback is that, unlike with an RRSP, you are subject to the 15% withholding tax on dividends paid from US companies. But he wouldn't let that keep you from owning US stocks in a TFSA, as it's all about total return and US stocks have outperformed Canadian ones for quite some time. Huge lift in the USD compared to CAD over last few years, and now we have interest rates moving down here.

Well run. 48% of revenue from wealth management, 42% from institutional, 10% from investment management. Should see a lift in these big names from falling interest rates and improving equity in fixed income markets. Some of the other banks have done better over the past year, like JPM or Citi or WFC. You'll do OK with MS as interest rate conditions improve. Paying 1.7x price to book, others are cheaper. Yield is 3.5%.

He prefers the payment companies like Visa and MA. Less competition. See his Top Picks.

DON'T BUY
QQQ vs. XQQ

NASDAQ is primarily tech companies, and you pay up for that. Growth rate for a lot of those companies is strong. But he sees the market broadening out to other sectors. As the economy and the monetary environment improve, we'll see industrials and financials improve. We might even see some rotation.

The US version of a US-stock ETF will always be cheaper. For QQQ, you're paying 20 bps; XQQ is 39 bps, almost double. XQQ is hedged, which hasn't helped you, might help you going forward but doesn't see CAD having a big push against the USD. He'd prefer QQQ, but be cautious on tech at this point.