PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/22, Down 5%)

"Baby with bathwater." Net interest margin compression, credit provisions picking up. Credit cycles follow interest cycles like night follows day. Nothing likely to derail the dividend, verging on 5% and growing at 7-8%. HSBC acquisition will cement leading position further in Canadian banking.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Dec 15/22, Down 26%)

Diversified into a vertically integrated healthcare colossus. Aetna business is weighing them down, but could be temporary. Compelling 8x earnings, very cheap, well capitalized, nice dividend. As long as Americans need healthcare, CVS will be part of that.

WAIT

Peak earnings in 2022, down since then, though this may not disrupt cadence of dividend growth since it's well capitalized. Dividend may grow more modestly but with a higher payout ratio. Still more downside risk with downslope of commodity cycle. Quality company.

WATCH

He owns JNJ. Lots of regard for KVUE, but hasn't initiated a position. Needs a period of seasoning to transition from IPO to reality. He's watching and waiting. Meaningful discount to CHD, but of similar quality.

BUY

Good combo of income (around 5%) and secular growth, predicated on global infrastructure deficit. Global. Great opportunities in data centres. US CHIPS Act should be a big catalyst. Pullback is pretty buyable.

BUY

Great shareholder alignment. Fantastic compounder over decades, 30-year compound annual rate of return around 18%. Pullback mainly due to real estate pressures is very buyable. Sharp, capable operators.

BUY

Biggest pure play on uranium. Bullish on uranium, as it's getting a rethink. Short-term supply is tight, prices are high. A bigger and better company than in past. Increasingly being added to ESG portfolios.

DON'T BUY

Not best in breed. Primary issue is the Latin American business, where returns were never commensurate with the risk. Acquisitions have proved tricky to integrate. C-suite transitions. He'd be on the sidelines.

BUY

He also owns CP. Some sensitivity to volumes in an economic downturn. Historically, has outperformed the TSX during downturns. Long and strong this name. Wouldn't shy away from adding here, despite economic clouds.

TOP PICK

Halloween is the core selling season. Largest chocolate producer in NA. 45% dominant share in chocolate, 30+% in general confectionery. Small, but fast-growing, salty snacks business. Small business selling into both EMs and developed markets. 

Best-in-class operating margins, 10 points above peers. 26% ROIC at 3x its cost of capital, leading all peers. Best ESG rating. Pullback due to price increases and volume declines. Trades at 20x earnings vs. long-term average of 24x. Yield is 2.35%.

(Analysts’ price target is $252.05)
TOP PICK

Largest industrial gas company in the world. Good mix of end markets, some in defensives and some in growth. Usually take-or-pay contracts with commodity cost pass-throughs, ensuring high and stable ROE. 3+ decades of annual dividend growth. Yield is 1.37%.

(Analysts’ price target is $421.76)
TOP PICK

After recent merger, now one of the top 10 banks in the US, operating in 32 states. Merger will bring cost savings. Strong suit is commercial banking and lending. Large Canadian wealth management, good-sized NA capital markets, plus a smaller insurance business. 13% ROE plus 7% growth rate in dividends, resulting in a double-digit return over the coming cycle. Yield is 5.17%.

(Analysts’ price target is $127.24)