COMMENT
US implicit guarantee to backstop all bank deposits.

Capital markets don't like to see that too often, that transfer of moral hazards. You'll be OK if you do well, and you'll still be OK if you don't. He'd like to see maybe more banks at the margin be allowed to fail, which has not happened in recent times. These decisions take away the whole incentive. Money managers are measured on did you do what someone in your position should have the knowledge and experience to do? It's obvious that this wasn't always the case with management of some of the banks that went down last week. They're probably afraid of something similar to what happened with the S&L crisis in the 1980s. 

COMMENT
Fed decision.

We'll see what happens this afternoon. They might have more insight than outsiders in terms of where the problem children are. If there are too many, it may cause them to pause. If it's not looking that detrimental, then maybe we will have that quarter point raise. It's really at the margin as to which way it's going to go.

COMMENT
Binge of debt accumulation by governments and consumers.

He's never seen an instance of rates going up by a significant amount where you don't see some business failures along the way. We've just been through a surreal period of very inexpensive debt, which caused businesses and governments to binge. Looking forward to next year, interest on Canadian debt will hit $40B or so, that's quite frightening. 

COMMENT
Markets.

Fed Reserve always says they're data driven, but there's a lag effect of 6-12 months for the real effects to set in. We're not out of the woods yet. Going to see some choppy markets, which will put much more emphasis on value stocks and those that are in a strong financial position. 

HOLD
Sell or hold?

Three big projects on the go, and the question was how were they going to be financed. Yesterday, they issued about $450M in two tranches of debt. With buildouts over the next 2 years, may see free cashflow go down a bit. Longer term, one of the better companies in wind energy, etc. Reasonable place to be. Not a tremendous yield of 3.5%. You're buying it for future increases in FCF.

DON'T BUY

Margins not as robust as some peers. Stock's done fairly well in last 2 years. He prefers other names in the group, though they all look expensive right now. He'd look at WSP or STN. Owns ARE, but that's a different kind of story.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

One of the better, if not the best, managed in the group. If you own it for the long term, hold on. Add on any setbacks. He'd seriously consider a position if price was 10-15% less. Company's doing well.

BUY

Natural gas prices have been clobbered. Prices usually decline this time of year. Surplus of nat gas. Astute management. Potential deals for LNG. Nat gas prices may not hit prior robust levels, but any boost will benefit ARX.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

One of his larger holdings. Very astute purchasers. Recent purchase of 2400 stores and car washes will really add to retail capability down the road. In a good position to roll out EV charging in their network. Not sure if he'd add today, but any price rollback would be an opportunity.

WEAK BUY

Management pretty astute. Expanding fairly aggressively in Ontario. Lots of opportunities. Yield is over 5%, relatively safe. Good at measuring credit in the small business sector, and delivering personal service to small business clients. Reasonably good buy if you have a longer term focus.

COMMENT
Trust returns within an RRSP.

If your T3 or T5 is from within an RRSP, he doesn't believe you have to file it, but don't quote him on that. Best to check with your accountant.

BUY

Management good at diversifying. A recent Top Pick. Growing fairly well over the last number of years. Previous years did see some stumbles. Internal rates of return on investment have been extraordinary. CEO an extremely good manager. Impressive yield over 8%, which should increase as cashflows do. More assets in US than Canada. No hesitation in recommending.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 18/22, Down 7%)

He'd still recommend it at these levels. Extremely well capitalized at 127%. Interest rate increases hit bond portfolios of all insurance companies, should get better with rates stabilizing. Internationally diversified. Yield is 4.5%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 18/22, Up 11%)

He wouldn't like to see the company split up. Aggressive US managers are pushing for change. Extremely inexpensive. Continues to recommend. Yield nearly 5%.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 18/22, Down 4%)

Facing extreme increases in cost of building out. Over 90% contracted revenues, so dividend is fairly safe. Yield close to 7% is extremely attractive, company anticipates growing it 5-7% per year. Inherent value going up all the time, because of replacement value of current assets. Continues to recommend holding.