COMMENT

Believes price of natural gas could fall to $0 in the coming months (warm weather, surging production). 
Advising investors to sell natural gas holdings.
Certain companies such as Tourmaline able to mitigate falling natural gas prices.
In contrast, oil demand at a record high. Expecting further growth with re-opening of China.
Expecting oil weighted equities to perform well in 2023/24.
Investors need to tune out noise and listen to fundamentals on oil demand growth.
OPEC out of spare capacity, shale growth over.



TOP PICK

Multi-year bull market for oil.
Large exposure to Clearwater oil play (most profitable in North America).
Largest shareholder of company (~44 million shares).
Returning 50% of free cash flow by the end of the year.
Meaningful upside in 23/24'.
Large reserve life buildup.
$100 oil price would see 200% upside to stock.

TOP PICK

Largest shareholder in company. 
Very large reserve life index.
Company is now debt free.
Will return 75% of free cash flow starting in April.
Expecting major share buybacks.
Trading at 1.8x cash flow @ $100 oil.
Tax losses worth $0.44 per share.
5x multiple would suggest a $6 share price.

TOP PICK

Pledged 100% of cash flow return to shareholders.
Confidence in new CEO.
Laser focused on reducing debt. 
30 year reserve life index. 
Expecting meaningful share growth. 
6x multiple on share price not out of question.
Good company for long term shareholders.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/22, Up 16%)

Will continue own shares.
10% weighting of fund (largest holding).
35 year reserve life index.
Publicly declared 100% return of free cash flow by the end of the year.
Has pledged to buyback shares.
6x multiple (12% free cash flow yield) equates to $47 share price.



PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/22, Up 26%)

Pure USA Bakken & Marcellus play.
12-15 years of drilling inventory.
Trading at 2.2x times cash flow (fair value = 5x).
Expecting meaningful appreciation of shares.

PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Mar 04/22, Up 5%)

Primarily a condensate producer.
Already hit debt target - will return 75% of free cash flow.
At strip gas, trading at 50% of fair value.
4x multiple (conservative) would imply 94% upside on share price.

DON'T BUY

Not a great company to own in the energy space.
Value trap where you can get better assets.
Lean on inventory with weak prospects.

BUY

Consolidator of Bakken assets in USA & Canada.
Trading at 1.8x cash flow @ $100 oil.
Currently trading at 19% free cash yield @ $80 oil.
Has committed to returning 75% of free cash flow yield.


BUY

Largest shareholder of company.
Expects shares to rise to $20 (believes fair price of shares).
Increasing production in Eagle Ford play.
Currently drilled top 15 of all Clearwater oil wells.
Expecting debt to reach target level by Q2.
Has pledged to return 50% of free cash flow yield.
Expecting a 12-20% dividend yield.
Currently mis -priced shares.


BUY

Small player in energy space ($270 MM market cap).
Believes dividend is sustainable (~11% yield).
Not many large funds buying.
China re-opening will increase oil price and lift share price.
Good for retail investor.


BUY

Owns shares in the company. 
Projecting a $22 share price given $80-$100 oil.
PDP reserves at 6 years.
Highly discounted at current share price.
75% free cash flow committed in Q2.
Believes company will raise dividends.
Also expecting large share buybacks.


HOLD

Does not own shares.
Better opportunities in mid-cap oil weighted names.
Quality company with assets in USA.
Trading at discount to other names in sector (PrairieSky etc.)

DON'T BUY

Not a great company to own at current share price.
Good time to sell shares.
Currently not covering dividend with strip price
Will have to take on debt.
Better names to own in sector.

DON'T BUY

Not a great company to own.
Value trap that has geopolitical risk.
Better names to own in sector.
Very risky buy.
Inventory depth not as great.