COMMENT

High USD. Incredibly tough for the global economy to manage, as there's so much EM and foreign debt issued in USD. It becomes harder for them to service that debt, which forces them to buy US dollars, and it becomes a vicious cycle. Fed's aggressive rate hikes underpin the whole thing with a high USD and is a negative for the global economy.

Unknown
COMMENT
Markets. Part of the cocktail of a poor market. 10-year in the US just broke 3.60%, and that's never good for valuation of equity markets. Compounded with weak European and Japanese foreign exchange, it makes it hard for trade to flourish, as there are such distortions in the FX market that make planning difficult. War in Ukraine, supply chain issues, after-effects of Covid. Never great for the stock market to have all these unknowns.
Unknown
COMMENT
Asset allocation right now. Tough the last few years, as the bond market didn't give you, really, any rate of return. Bonds are now safe to enter. Despite roaring inflation, we've discounted quite a bit of it doing about 2/3 of the tightening. The yield curve's inverting, so the long end is outperforming the short end, as central banks can't influence the long end. Even at 6%, you're losing money on an inflation-adjusted basis, but the bond market is poised to do better in 2023-24 as a recession most probably hits. Central banks will probably pivot and lower rates in the second half of 2023.
Unknown
PARTIAL BUY
Inverted rates at the long end mean the market's telling you high probability of a recession. Not a bad entry point to dip your toe in. Curve might re-steepen temporarily, if inflation is stickier. Partial position now; if he had $1, he'd put 50 cents in right now.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
Diversified away from MG, reducing exposure to 25-30%. Problem when assets are outside North America. European headwinds, foreign exchange, slowing economy. Underperformed this year. Better industrial plays out there.
property mngmnt / investment
DON'T BUY
Office, residential, industrial. Not focused enough for him. Good numbers last quarter. Will probably reinstate dividend soon. It's fine, but not one of his favourites.
property mngmnt / investment
DON'T BUY
Great infrastructure play. Huge backlog. You can feel governments starting to spend. Biggest problems are wage increases, input costs, and labour shortages. Many contracts are fixed. Margins compressed. Stay away.
contractors