Market Outlook The market is telling you the summer was full of political bad news. The last six months the market is not down, where is all the gloom. The market is behaving as it should. Rates are as low as they can get, you are not seeing it help the economy. The psychology is positive right now. The Dow is following the previous bull market that ran 1982-2000 -- it has about 10 years to go. He doesn't expect a 20-30% plunge is coming.
Gold is not expensive. Barrick increased its dividend and he likes their management. The Chinese Central bank has been steadily building gold inventory. They want to move their reserves up to the likes of the US, Germany, etc. No major reserves are being discovered, so eventually prices will rise. Gold prices today will start some exploration across the sector. Gold prices could find resistance around $1719 /oz. Seasonally, gold prices usually rise from after US Thanksgiving into the spring.
Why are REITs selling off? REITs are falling off on the threat of bond yields rising again. If bonds go up, it will create competition and money will move to safer yields.
He owns this and has for quite some time. It is more sensitive to market moves as it has a large presence in the financial capital market space. So if you are bullish the market it will do better than the other Canadian banks.
How big is their real estate exposure? A good bank for sure. Real Estate is studied internally to evaluate overall exposure. Don't worry too much about where they are concentrated, the banks have been doing this for over 170 years.
Will they continue to outperform their peers? Every cycle sees the laggard become the leader and then vice versa. The Canadian banks are all about the same in long term returns. CM is the smaller of the Big 5 banks. RY has been consistently the largest bank, however. CM-T does have the highest current dividend yield.
Will they continue to outperform their peers? Every cycle sees the laggard become the leader and then vice versa. The Canadian banks are all about the same in long term returns. CM is the smaller of the Big 5 banks. RY has been consistently the largest bank, however. CM-T does have the highest current dividend yield.
Canadian Economy The Canadian economy is disappointing because a large portion of the driving force is being held back from contributing fully (interviewer, "You mean oil and gas"). Hopefully now a minority government and the two main partners agree on energy to allow the correct legislation to allow the energy space to grow again. China has hurt us as well.
Down 10% today Amazon has not a substantial impact on the bigger box stores yet -- Canadian Tire included. The stores remain busy. Consider them as trading opportunities. The fourth quarter is usually a good earnings time. If you can buy it today at a discount you should.
It is a Hong Kong focused Asian bank -- two hot spots right now. Democracy will hopefully prevail in Hong Kong, but it is tough for the bank right now.
(A Top Pick Nov 06/18, Down 18%) He got "Trumped" on this one. The company is solid, despite the trade war issues. It will bounce back if the trade deal gets signed. China is the main market for this. He will continue to hold it.
(A Top Pick Nov 06/18, Up 20%) He is still bullish on financials. When the yield curve normalizes all the banks will make a lot of money. They are doing well going into the headwinds currently. He likes the technical price breakout now too.
Tech stocks will always have air pockets -- momentum comes and goes. They are part of exchange indexes now, so they will benefit when the market goes up (funds need to buy) and when markets breath they will go down.
All the European banks are struggling with a negative yield curve and spot rates negative. Brexit will solve itself, they will probably leave, and then things will go back to normal. He would position for that if you believe things will stabilize.