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COMMENT
Market Outlook A large oil stock build this week when a draw was expected has put downward pressure on oil prices. We have almost 100 million barrels more in storage than last year and another 5 weeks before the summer driving season begins. We might see another run towards the low-$50s for WTI soon. Be a buyer on weakness. He thinks debt is still high for some key players like CPG-T and will hold back companies from buying back shares to improve per share metrics.
DON'T BUY
A Montney producer, which did not hit the production levels the market expected. They have had four good wells come online and more production increases to come in Q4. Their debt needs to be cut by $100 million before he would be interested. The market is penalizing companies that can not get their debt under control.
oil
gas
WEAK BUY
Their debt is very low and acceptable and have lots of cash. Book value is over $10 per share. A high yield and good company in the right fairway. They are liquids rich. He thinks this is a very cheap stock, but there are so many others that you can own. There could be another 5-10% downside for weakness. Yield 7.5%.
oil
gas
WAIT
It has been beaten up and trades below December lows. Investors were disappointed when the MEG-T deal did not go through. There is a decent yield. He wants to do more work on this one. If the cash flow is as strong as they say, it is very possible they could increase the dividend -- maybe to $1 per share per quarter.
oil
gas
COMMENT
Why look at energy? He has seen two incredible bull trends in energy in his career. The last bull market was from 1999 to 2003. There were several 10-baggers during those cycles. He thinks a new bull trend started in February 2016 when we were at $26 per barrel. He is now watching India as the next source of major demand -- eventually growing to over 5 million barrels per day over the next five years. In the next five years, he thinks a five-bagger is possible in TSX Energy in the next handful of years.
BUY
WAIT
He met management for the first time last week. They are the largest condensate producer in Canada and will continue to build their "super-pads". The stock is cheap. There will be more natural gas takeaway capacity out the province. He believes they will use their excess cash flow to help reduce their 45% decline rates and pay down debt. He is doing homework to decide if he adds it to his list. They could become the consolidator of condensate production in Canada.
Energy
COMMENT
