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COMMENT
What’s pushing markets down? Since October, and especially this past week, fight between earnings and interest rates and the consequent uncertainty. Optimism on earnings side from analysts, giving way to pessimism that earnings will slow down plus rising interest rates. Earnings expectations too rosy going into 2019. Yields are down from their highs, but Fed is conveying rising rates both in US and Canada, affecting equity prices. All this is taking the bloom off equity markets.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Negative push towards Canada from outside (housing levels, debt), and this includes the banks. But he’s positive on Canadian banks, they earn a lot of money. If housing does decline, those profits let banks weather the storm. Trade at good values, good profits, dividends are safe and valuable in times of market volatility. If you have a position already, you can afford to nibble away at it.
banks
DON'T BUY
Buying opportunity? It has some fantastic brands, but subject to fads, which could have a material effect. But he has some concerns such as high valuation for consumer products company, management structure, and Toys R Us issue in the States. Be cautious on this name. You could be seeing some profit taking right now.
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Making inroads against Amazon. Good earnings, recent acquisition is working. Current pullback is indicative of the market overall. Positive time of year for them. As online becomes a bigger component of sales, that will be reflected in the valuation. A defensive name, a stable investment, so it would go down less in a down market.
department stores
DON'T BUY
Earnings looked good. They freed up capital for buybacks. Interest rate hikes are positive, but might take time to come through. Product sales are good in Asia, so fundamentally in good shape. Overhang of US lawsuits, which will go on for a while. Negative Canadian bias from outside of Canada. Stock won’t move until things get cleaned up. Prefers the banks.
insurance
WAIT
Add more? Has hung in fairly well compared to other tech. Viewed as more of a traditional tech company. Well managed. Cloud services are growing. Doing all the right things fundamentally. Tech spend will continue to increase. Sees core businesses growing. If you already own it, hold, but wait to add more and see if it comes down and holds around $95.
computer software
processing
BUY ON WEAKNESS
Positive on the name. Whenever anything happens in the financial space, Goldman is there. Has more torque than a traditional bank, as its earnings are a bit more leveraged. Keeping money to grow the business instead of returning it to shareholders, a positive. Conservative on loan reserves. Would be looking to add, not exit.
investment companies
funds
BUY ON WEAKNESS
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Feb 14/18, Up 6%) Good holding for a long term investor. Pipeline company for water, infrastructure, toll roads. They tend to buy low, make it better, sell it, and redeploy the money. Yield is 4.5%, and yield is valuable in uncertain markets.
Energy Infrastructure, Industrials & Utilities
