COMMENT

Market. Investors in energy have been moving away from the energy space in Canada and the US. Energy is becoming less relevant to investors as the space is becoming more complex (due to widening differentials for example). He thinks you need to see more hostile takeovers to change things. Despite reduced valuations and strong cash flow margins there is a lack of interest. Over 10% of Canadian oil demand is off line with refinery maintenance with the BP Whiting turnaround. When sentiment changes back to normal situations, he expects to see several doubles or triples going forward especially the larger cap energy stocks.

COMMENT

Why is energy not benefiting despite rising oil prices? He thought this was going to be a great year for WTI prices – hitting $70 per barrel. It did not and LNG projects were positive. There always seems to be another concern for investors. He is not sure what the unicorn is needed to change things. He things hostile takeovers and share buybacks are needed in 2019.

COMMENT

What is a good yielding energy stock? For a reasonable dividend you are limited to Vermilion, Whitecap and Torc. His preference is Torc (TOG-T) as he trusts management, it has high-quality assets and the market cap is large enough to attract interest from CPP as an investor. It is trading at 4 times cash flow with a yield of about 4%.

HOLD

He thinks there is an opportunity with this one as the light oil differentials will compress again soon. The company sells into the Cromer market, where differentials are much tighter. This translates to high-quality valuations at a good discount. He expects steady eddy growth.

DON'T BUY

He is not enamored by the service fluid space. He feels there is not a strong negotiation position with customers, so he does not think they are benefiting from higher commodity prices.

DON'T BUY

He thought this was going to be a great year for WTI prices – hitting $70 per barrel. There always seems to be another concern for investors. He is not sure what the unicorn is needed to change things. He would prefer to purchase high-quality Permian producers.

DON'T BUY

He met with the new management and is convinced it is not enough to change investor perception. The level of distaste for the name is at all times high. Exposure in Utah is also hurting as investors see them alone and it is risky and boring.

HOLD

This company has struggled to gain investor interest and he believes it will continue to do so despite the high yield. It is about 50% light oil so its exposure to wide differentials is limited. He thinks the dividend is sustainable. Yield 9.2%.

DON'T BUY

The company holds a lot of acreage in the Montney, but they face the challenge of growing cash flow and production with a natural gas concentration. There are better opportunities elsewhere. He is still bearish natural gas.

DON'T BUY

Although he is an oil bull, selling assets to clean up the balance sheet has limited the ability to improve financially despite the rise in oil prices. There are better companies to choose from.

DON'T BUY

He holds no natural gas stocks in his portfolio as he remains bearish on natural gas. It is trading 5 times cash flow – near trough levels – but it is difficult to excite investors and the variability of weather is too uncertain.

BUY

He has been averaging down on this one. It holds a premiere asset base with paybacks being less than one year. He thinks they will be able to unlock the asset value over the next two years. He thinks this could trade back above $10.

DON'T BUY

He would avoid this one as it is a small cap stock that investors have no interest in presently. It has failed to gain any institutional interest. Without that support, valuations will not improve. There are better opportunities out there.

DON'T BUY

This stock was a sell on fact situation following the announcement of Shell to proceed with LNG on the west coast. There is long term exposure to BC natural gas out to 2023. They are having trouble proving the value of their acreage. He would not own this as he remains bearish natural gas.

DON'T BUY

LNG Canada is coming on in 2023 – a long time to protect the balance sheet. He does not like the level of debt as it handcuffs any financial gains. He would not own this.