Market. The S&P500 has been having the longest bull-run in its history. It is hard for investors to focus on beaten down areas, like resource stocks, when everything else is doing well. The US tax cuts and deregulation have contributed to a breath of fresh air to the market. A strong US market should be good for base metals globally, as long as we can wade through the tariff issues. With countries agreeing to reduce or eliminate Iranian imports, it should allow WTI to stay between $70-$80 per barrel.
This is a name that is well held institutionally and in the retail market. There may be some acquisition overhang that will ultimately be beneficial. Management will do small acquisitions, but the big deals are likely done he thinks. This company has an attractive payout ratio (near 80%) and so the dividend should be sustainable. It has been a core holding of theirs for years.
This is a name he has avoided due to the uncertainty of their Guatemala silver mine investment. Social license is a big issue for some of these countries. Half of their net asset value is in this country. He worries about the potential for public company conflict with the various levels of government there.
There is a more technical based CEO there now. The company has gone through good expansion and now they are focusing on permitting in the Arizona mine. It has been a lengthy process to get approvals and expects 2019 to see approval. He is generally very light on holding base metals, especially in the face of current trade disputes.
A Colombian oil producer that they own currently. The company recently put itself up for sale. He thinks this company feels some of the assets may have reached a maturity point, especially the Colombian assets. He thinks the company is under-valued by about $2-$3 per share and that is why they continue to hold it.
He has owned this periodically, especially when production started in Peru and New Brunswick. Now they have diversified further into Africa. It is the largest independent iron producer and the balance sheet is impeccable. He also likes their leverage to zinc. He also worries about the social license of a public company in some of these countries.
It is one of about a dozen companies that will benefit from a positive FID statement on a west coast LNG project. He thinks the announcement of such a project could be weeks away. The company has one of the largest Montney land holdings in BC and it is trying to monetize that into real cash flow to de-risk the asset. They have had to sell other assets to keep things going.
He has always felt the crux of the issue was around the quality of management. Serial issuer of stocks and acquisitions – they took it too long too far. He thinks half of the 185,000 boed could be up for sale to help deleverage the balance sheet. They have strong assets, but he wondered how many years of inventory were necessary. The market has not given the new management team the benefit of the doubt. It is at all time lows in terms of valuation.
This company has traditionally been a core hold as it tends to have lower volatility. However, as he has become more bullish on gold, he is looking for more torque in the actual E&P list of companies at this time. He thinks $1100 per ounce is a floor for gold prices. (Analysts’ price target is $109)