Latest Expert Opinions

Signal
Opinion
Expert
WAIT
WAIT
July 31, 2018

Tata Motors sold off dramatically after Trump’s anti-foreigner rhetoric started. So did Subaru. These companies are trading at very attractive levels. He’s not a fan of the auto sector and so he doesn’t own it, but he sees a potential trade here. Tata sells one of the cheapest cars and has a huge addressable market. He would like to see Tata go a little lower before buying it.

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Tata Motors sold off dramatically after Trump’s anti-foreigner rhetoric started. So did Subaru. These companies are trading at very attractive levels. He’s not a fan of the auto sector and so he doesn’t own it, but he sees a potential trade here. Tata sells one of the cheapest cars and has a huge addressable market. He would like to see Tata go a little lower before buying it.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 31, 2018

The company sold off after the merger and has come back up. The valuation level might now be a bit too high. There are only so many places where you can get potash. He sees it as a national champion asset in Canada. He thinks this is a good quality company.

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Nutrien Ltd. (NTR-T)
July 31, 2018

The company sold off after the merger and has come back up. The valuation level might now be a bit too high. There are only so many places where you can get potash. He sees it as a national champion asset in Canada. He thinks this is a good quality company.

DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
July 31, 2018

Comparing this to Salesforce.Com (CRM-N). Both of these companies are attractive because their business (electronic customer relationship management) brings large, recurring revenue. However, he struggles with the valuation of both companies. They are too rich for his clients. In the context of concerns that tech’s valuation might be too far extended, he thinks it would be wise to step back from this one. At this time, if he was buying a tech stock, he would prefer one that showed more potential for structural growth. He gave IBM as an example of a tech company that is currently “on sale”.

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Hubspot Inc (HUBS-N)
July 31, 2018

Comparing this to Salesforce.Com (CRM-N). Both of these companies are attractive because their business (electronic customer relationship management) brings large, recurring revenue. However, he struggles with the valuation of both companies. They are too rich for his clients. In the context of concerns that tech’s valuation might be too far extended, he thinks it would be wise to step back from this one. At this time, if he was buying a tech stock, he would prefer one that showed more potential for structural growth. He gave IBM as an example of a tech company that is currently “on sale”.

BUY
BUY
July 31, 2018

This is one of the few tech companies that is “on sale” at this time.

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IBM (IBM-N)
July 31, 2018

This is one of the few tech companies that is “on sale” at this time.

BUY
BUY
July 31, 2018

After the global financial crisis, all banks under-earned because interest rates came down so far. As interest rates come back up, financials are starting to approach their historical earnings range. Banks in the US and Canada are leaders in this pack. European banks are a bit behind. 40% of HSBC’s business is in Europe, which has yet to see higher interest rates. 40% is in Hong Kong, which is the booking point for Asian business. Because the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, this part of HSBC’s business is pegged to the US interest rate cycle. Higher interest rates in the US are good for HSBC in Asia. He thinks the global banks are undervalued, and are good buys, especially for people with a multi-year horizon. This is not a good trade for 3-to-6 months but he thinks it will do well for someone willing to hold it for 3-to-5 years.

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After the global financial crisis, all banks under-earned because interest rates came down so far. As interest rates come back up, financials are starting to approach their historical earnings range. Banks in the US and Canada are leaders in this pack. European banks are a bit behind. 40% of HSBC’s business is in Europe, which has yet to see higher interest rates. 40% is in Hong Kong, which is the booking point for Asian business. Because the Hong Kong dollar is pegged to the US dollar, this part of HSBC’s business is pegged to the US interest rate cycle. Higher interest rates in the US are good for HSBC in Asia. He thinks the global banks are undervalued, and are good buys, especially for people with a multi-year horizon. This is not a good trade for 3-to-6 months but he thinks it will do well for someone willing to hold it for 3-to-5 years.

BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
July 31, 2018

This is an industrial enzymes company, spun out of Novo Nordisk. It has been a solid performer with a good balance sheet. The problem is that there are rarely good buying opportunities. It trades at a high earnings multiple and rarely misses earnings estimates, for example. This would be a good company to buy in a recession.

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This is an industrial enzymes company, spun out of Novo Nordisk. It has been a solid performer with a good balance sheet. The problem is that there are rarely good buying opportunities. It trades at a high earnings multiple and rarely misses earnings estimates, for example. This would be a good company to buy in a recession.

PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
July 31, 2018

This is a great company but its business has evolved. Its penetration in developed markets is very high and so its sales are replacement cycle. In less-developed markets, the phone is so expensive that it is difficult to increase penetration. The company has a lot of cash, but it is not using it. In addition, the company has grown so quickly over the last few years that continuing the momentum will be a challenge. For someone who has owned this company for a while, he would recommend taking the cost basis off the table. He doesn’t expect this to have a huge correction, which is what he expects for Twitter, but he does expect Apple to become range-bound.

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Apple (AAPL-Q)
July 31, 2018

This is a great company but its business has evolved. Its penetration in developed markets is very high and so its sales are replacement cycle. In less-developed markets, the phone is so expensive that it is difficult to increase penetration. The company has a lot of cash, but it is not using it. In addition, the company has grown so quickly over the last few years that continuing the momentum will be a challenge. For someone who has owned this company for a while, he would recommend taking the cost basis off the table. He doesn’t expect this to have a huge correction, which is what he expects for Twitter, but he does expect Apple to become range-bound.