Today, Thomas George and Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA commented about whether BABA-N, IBN-N, V-N, NDVA-X, SPOT-N, TWTR-N, TCEHY-OTC, GOOG-Q, ZQQ-T, ZPW-T, ZWH-T, BCE-T, HMMJ-T, HUT-T, ETSY-Q, NTR-T, HEXO-T, NVDA-Q, SQ-N, RDS.B-N are stocks to buy or sell.
Marijuana Space. There could be a flood of oversupply. The top ten players are going to be about 2000 tons. Demand will be about 800. And the black market is not included in that supply. The space is very interesting and it will be a commodity once the bubble washes out. Marijuana is perishable so oversupply will have to be converted to oil quickly.
Given the M&A lens, if he was long in the space he would want the names that were trading below the average. This one is 8.5 times. The average is north of 16. This is a more attractive name. The medical side is interesting. He is not sure how the medical market is going to shake out once you get full recreational. This is better than being on pain killers.
Market. It looks like the extreme populous Italian movement and the national front party in Italy are coming together to form a government. This was thought to be the worst case scenario. It looks like it will be negative and the bond market pressure could ignite again. Spreads out of Italy are starting to widen. It will play out over the next couple of weeks. We could see an important technical level breached – see Educational Segment today. This could be as disruptive as Greece several years ago. Germany and France are not big enough to write a cheque for Italy. If this Italian government forms they will want a lot of freedoms that they don’t have in terms of austerity. NAFTA looks like it is in the final innings. Best case is that they agree on something new but it looks like we will not get anything, which adds uncertainty to the markets.
Educational Segment. The Bull Market in Bonds. The double bottom has one of the most efficacies of all. In the last couple of years we have gone down to the low single digit yields and experienced a double bottom in 2011/12 and then again in the last couple of years. 4.72% is the price target for 10 year bonds to go to. He thinks the world would fall apart of it ever got there. The world cannot handle higher interest rates in his opinion. He thinks 3.5% is the top. Late 2019 or 2020 the yield curve inversion is signaling a recession. As an alternative, he can see the bull market in bonds continuing as interest rates continue the previous down trend.
It is 100% speculative. You have to be ready for a bumpy ride. We saw a big M&A transaction today and you will see a lot more of them. There will be a handful of survivors. This is incredibly overvalued today. If the US went for legal weed use, it would be a game changer. Wait until it is a value play after the next recession.
5.2% yield. He likes yield for oil stocks. It keeps the companies honest. It is a great place to park money to play the potential upswing. We are positioned for another leg up. Geopolitics can cut both ways but it is a tailwind right now. He feels the Iranian barrels will get to market but there is the risk premium from it. He also likes that the yield is getting higher. It makes the hurtle rates higher for shale buys. Higher interest rates are good for everyone.