Today, Greg Newman commented about whether QSR-T, MFC-T, TD-T, CNR-T, SGY-T, RY-T, CGX-T, CVE-T, PKI-T, CPG-T, ALA-T, GE-N, IPL-T, QSR-T, RUS-T, ENB-T, IFC-T, AQN-T, CHE.UN-T, CSCO-Q, WFC-N, BTE-T, SPB-T, EIF-T, REI.UN-T are stocks to buy or sell.
(A Top Pick June 16/17 - Down 22.7%) Chose it for better growth than its peers and a better valuation on a free cash yield. 2017 was messy with production outages and balance sheet concerns and lately with opposition to their line 3. Kind of a perfect storm here. Still believe they are growing earnings by 12% a year. The balance sheet is high, but they have non-core assets that they can sell.
Is the dividend safe? They had troubles with their franchises. A famous guy in the US disclosed recently that he shorted this stock. Management has done a good job turning around Burger King and Popeyes. Earnings growth 20% and trades at 18 times 2019. Way cheaper than its 4-year average. Nice and safe dividend yield of 3.3%. He thinks it is a winner.
The story is turning around here. He is modeling 55% cash flow growth 2018 to 2019. Trades at 5 times 2019 cash flow which is reasonable. The problem here is their balance sheet is 3.5 times debt to cash flow. This will come down if oil prices stay at these levels. A name you can own if you like oil.
Can I hold this for the next several years and forget it? Yes. Banks in general are cheap. Cheaper certainly than they were a year ago with better growth. Growth in their model is 5% here. Good capital ratio. If you are putting new money, he would look at other banks as this one is trading at a premium compared to peers.
A yield proxy. Its growth is not what it used to be. If you are going to invest in a yield proxy in a rising interest rate environment you need one of this two things: really good valuations or really good growth. He thinks these guys have that good growth with a joint venture they just got into.