Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Today, Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA and Stephen Groff commented about whether WBA-Q, AUTO-LN, QSR-T, LIT-N, FIE-T, HNU-T, APHA-T are stocks to buy or sell.

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Market. New highs but the TSX has been lagging world markets for a considerable time. We are heavily weighted in banks and energy. The banks bounced back and we had some GDP growth. Curbing the growth in housing is going to be a huge problem. Oil will stay at $50 for 5 years so there is not a lot of optimism for growth. It looks like in the US we are going to get a vote on the tax bill in mid-January. This will not solve any of the problems the US economy has. AMZN-Q is destructive. The stock has been the best stock for the last 15 years (38% over the last 15 years). They lost almost a billion dollars in their core retail operation. They are only great at disrupting so where is this going to go. As a value investor he does not get the story.

DON'T BUY

He prefers to play the broad space rather than figure out who wins the race. He prefers the HMMJ-T ETF. We are close to a market high so he thinks the market risk is high. The next broader market correction will pull this one back. He would keep your powder dry. In a 10% allocation to speculation he would put 1% in Marijuana. Maybe 3 or 4 if you are really speculative. He would prefer speculating more in AI.

RISKY

Uranium as a contrarian Investment. It has been a value trap for many years. Look at URA-N. It does look like there is a longer term bottom forming. He likes it. This is a speculative area he would be okay having a percent in. He does not have any right now. We are getting close to this.

DON'T BUY

A double leverage natural gas ETF. He would not hold for the long term. Go for HNY-T as you lose 3-5% per month based on losses in the nature of the futures contracts in the leveraged ETF. He also likes the Junior Natural Gas ETF ZJN-T for longer term.

PARTIAL SELL

Preferreds and dividend payers. It is a great holding bu concentrated in the sector. It is at all time highs. He is reducing his exposure to the financial sector now. If it goes higher he would reduce more.

DON'T BUY

Energy. He does not like the energy sector. He likes what they are doing for fracking over the next 5 years but he is not company specific.

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Gold. He thought we could get to $1300 where he is a seller and he is a buyer at $1100. He is adding to his exposures at $1250. It is in a trading range. He does not see it breaking for the next year.

WATCH

There is froth in the sector and he would wait for a 20% minimum pullback before nibbling at these companies. We should get a correction and you should buy the correction.

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Educational Segment. The Canadian Dollar. It has been on a roller coaster ride this year. The 2 year spread between US and Canadian is the highest correlation to the Canadian dollar. Our bonds usually yield more than the US. But back in 2015 that changed. Short term this is a negative factor. In the futures market, speculators in the Canadian dollar shorted this year but now are net long. That potentially has some downside for the dollar.

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[Three Guests] Market. [Groff] The 16k number is a nice physiological number but does not affect what he does. He is bottom up. There are parts of the market that are fully valued. And parts that aren’t. [Rohinton] The risk reward is not in your favour in banks today. He does not think this is the day for this opportunity. He prefers US banks and others outside of banks such as the payment sector. [McNamee]. He does not think there is a bubble in the FANG stocks. He has owned names within that group and still likes names like Google. CSCO is not a name he has invested in. He looks at other value players like MSFT-Q that are into new technology transitions such as ‘Cloud First’. [Groff] There are pockets of real estate that are fully valued.

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How do you evaluate an opportunity? Looking at Tech stocks: The customer has to like the product. The company should be continually gaining market share over the years. Then they can continuously grow. [Rohinton] A finance stock has to give you comfort over the downside. You have to look through the balance sheet to understand the risks. Then he looks at the upside. [Groff] Avoiding losses is important, especially when markets are hitting new highs and there is complacency.

BUY

He likes it long term and would own more if it was cheaper. They are having to reinvest and it is hurting margins. He does not know short term and it is reasonably fully valued, but he likes the business long term. They are good at doing M&A and taking costs out. They are a royalty model so they care about growth in absolute units.

TOP PICK

They have grown 50% a year. Last year they had an execution issue and dropped their guidance. He found they were growing too aggressively and it was irritating customers. People didn’t understand this was the problem. Over the last two quarters they have been beating expectations. They are at 20% free cash flow growth now. (Analysts’ target: $165.00).

TOP PICK

It is all online. He likes it because it has a terrific brand but de-rated significantly due to BREXIT, consumer confidence and residual values of cars in the UK. You can buy it at a price where it makes sense. (Analysts’ target: 430 pounds).

TOP PICK

It only went public last December. It was owned by a company in the Netherlands. They are now the largest in the US market. They have no debt and no holding company debt. It has 10 to 11 times earnings. (Analysts’ target: $61.00).