Today, Don Vialoux and Joe Mazumdar commented about whether AMZ-X, TK-X, MRZ-X, ATC-X, NVO-X, GUY-T, ROXG-T, ZINC-X, PG-T, COR-X, IVN-T, CDB-X, NHK-T, MRZ-X, MOZ-T, DML-T, CNX-X, CNL-T, NDM-T, NLC-X, THO-T, MSFT-Q, MX-T, RCI.B-T, BIIB-Q, DOL-T, AQN-T, YRI-T, ORCL-N, ZEB-T, KL-T, ATRL-T, TD-T, RY-T, META-Q, TECK.B-T, GIB.A-T, ECA-T, INTC-Q, MFC-T, FHG-T, FHQ-T, DIA-N, CASH, SOIL-N, XGD-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Seasonally it is strong from the middle of October until January and then from the end of February until the end of May. It did not work last year. We are about to enter the period and it is in an upward trend, testing the all time high. If it breaks out it could go to the $75 level. Stick with it or buy some more.
He does not know the seasonality on this one but chemicals do well from October to January and February until May. Technically, there is mild encouragement. It is forming support and is in a trading range. It has been going sideways. If it moved above the trading range, you could get a nice move up.
Gold.Exploration has been falling from its peak in 2012 at about 20% a year. Most of this was due to falling commodity prices. At one point, in the late 90s and early 2000s, Barrick spent 8% of their revenue on exploration, and are now spending 3%-4%. They seem to be less interested in exploration and more interested in optimizing their current assets and are focused on their core assets, which worked at lower gold prices. He is looking more for those assets that work at $1200, which are not being found, because no one is doing exploration, especially grassroots exploration.
Had owned this because the Escobal project was one of the best silver deposit out there. The problem has always been Guatemala, which is why he sold his holdings. In July they had a court decision that suspended the mine. They have to deal with the suspension as well as a legal blockade, and in the interim, they have had to readjust their guidance, amend their credit facility, as well as suspend all dividend payments. As a single asset company, they get very highly discounted. There is still a lot of risk embedded in the stock.
Has never owned this. The deposit was looked at by Rio Tinto and Anglo which spent a lot of money on it, but then both walked away. His investment thesis on any exploration or developing companies is for an eventual take out. When he sees 2 majors walking away from it, it makes him think twice. Also has problems with the economics as some of the high grades is much deeper.
Newmont is one of the more active majors out there and their pipeline suggested a need for them to take Conga out of reserve, which was a big impact on their reserve. Colombia would be a new jurisdiction for them, and believes they wanted to take a significant footprint in this, but not do an overall takeover until they were more comfortable with Colombia. The asset is great, but he has some issues with some of the resource, but in terms of some of the development, they have a top-notch COO developing the project and thinks Newmont is very comfortable with it. This looks really good but he is not interested in development plays. Most of his money is going into exploration right now.
He likes his present position, but is not adding to his holdings. They are drilling a lot in the New Brunswick area, and basically adding a resource together at their Nash Creek and Super Jack projects. They are trying to build up to a preliminary economic assessment, which should be available in the latter part of 2017 or early 2018. His initial interest was more in the Flin Flon mining district in Manitoba.
What is the most seasonally predictable? The base metals sector is quite reliable. Stocks are more predictable than ETFs. Commodity prices are more reliably seasonal than stocks.