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Markets. It is a special day today, July 17th. On average the S&P over the last 20 years has peaked on Feb 17th, then down until the middle of October. Today is the average day for the start of a correction. For the TSX it is similar. It peaks about July 17th. There is volatility and there is lower volume. Volatility starts rising about the beginning of July. The markets bottom in October. The VIX is doing about nothing right now. The spike in volatility has not happened yet this year. All this means is a selloff to come. There are some interesting buying opportunities.

HOLD

It has been technically been showing some interesting patterns. It broke out into a new high in the last few days. You would prefer to buy it back in the trading range. It is good between September and December of each year, but we are not into the period of seasonal strength. Stick with it if you own it.

DON'T BUY

The technical picture does not look good. It is in a downward trend and not showing signs of support. It is underperforming the market.

COMMENT

AMZN-Q vs. QQQ-Q. You can buy very few AMZN-Q shares if you want. There are huge earnings coming in from the technology sector and they report next week. The QQQ-Q’s seasonality reaches its peak on July 17th (today). These stocks are overbought right now. The stocks are starting to struggle. We have already seen the peak in QQQ-Q.

SELL

AMZN-Q vs. QQQ-Q. You can buy very few AMZN-Q shares if you want. There are huge earnings coming in from the technology sector and they report next week. The QQQ-Q’s seasonality reaches its peak on July 17th (today). These stocks are overbought right now. The stocks are starting to struggle. We have already seen the peak in QQQ-Q.

WAIT

This stock has finally is showing early signs of recovering after being in a downward trend. It is in a trading range and late last week reached above it. It is starting to look interesting, but on a seasonal basis it is strong October to December of each year. It is a bit too early to play the seasonal trade right now.

WATCH

REITs in general are strong in the summer, different from most sectors. Last summer it had a pretty good run. Right now it is in a trading range. If it breaks above it you will run into an upward trend. It will continue until September.

DON'T BUY

The chart is not looking too good. There is a distinctive trend down. It may be trying to form a base, showing an early sign of bottoming. You want more than just early signs. Seasonally these stocks do well from January to April.

WATCH

The base metal stocks over the last three weeks are showing some very strong technical strength. The long term trend is still to the upside. The resistance is at the $5.50 level. Strength will continue seasonally until the end of July. It is outperforming the TSX and above the 20 & 50 day moving averages. Watch for it to move above the $5.50 mark.

DON'T BUY

It was in an upward trend and then broke it and is in a downward trend. It is underperforming the TSX and broke below the 20 & 50 day moving average.

PARTIAL SELL

There are unconfirmed reports that it is going to spin off or sell the John Hancock unit in the US. Seasonality is from mid-September until the end of the year. It has gone sideways ever since. It has recently been testing its all time high. It is outperforming the market and trading above the 20 & 50 day moving overages. This will probably go down with the market. It is a good time to take money off the table if you are a trader.

COMMENT

Seasonality is strong from Feb. to May. We had a little bit this year. Technically it has been trading in a range over the last 3 months. There is no indication in which direction it is going. Auto stocks in general have been doing well, but are now showing signs of rolling over so he would be careful here.

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Educational segment. The VIX. It often rises in the summer, connected to a correction in the markets. This year it could be a problem in Korea or a problem in the congress of the US. Not everything goes down when you have a spike in the VIX. Gold. When the VIX spikes in July to October, so does gold. We are seeing early signs of XGD-T bottoming. Momentum indicators are starting to turn higher. Stocks are moving off their 20 day moving averages. There are early signs that gold has bottomed. Look at bullion and stocks and pick the one that is performing the best. It looks like gold stocks are the way to play the seasonal trade this year.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Apr 8/16, total return up 95.93%) Most people thought of it as being purely in the energy space because of plastic fuel tanks. It is plastics and packaging. He has other packaging companies now. There are so few great Canadian stocks to own that this one got away with itself. He feels it went too far too fast.

PAST TOP PICK

(Top Pick Apr 8/16, Up 6.35%) He likes the tech business. He likes what they have been able to do. They are a world leader. He feels very strongly about CGI. He would still buy it.