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Interest rates. The Fed will raise interest rates this week. Friday’s payroll was pretty decent, so there is no room for them not to go. Three rate hikes are pretty much priced in to the Fed Fund’s curve out to the end of the year. If we go into Europe and European elections, Netherlands actually starts this week, but we are really looking at the French election as the key one, April 23-May 7. If Marie Le Pen wins the election, that is going to be very destabilizing globally, far more than BREXIT, far more than the US election, and far more than the Italian election. We haven’t seen any impact from British breaking trade agreements with the EU, other than the weakening of the British pound. If France decides to leave the EU, and it goes back to the French franc, the whole European project begins to come apart. BREXIT was a warning shot across the bow, and this would be breaking it apart. If it is not this one, maybe it is the Italian election, sometime within the next year. If one of these goes extreme right wing it is going to start falling apart. That is what he is really worried about. The US economy, for all its ills, is still the strongest economy in the world. The restructuring that Trump is trying to put into place should be very, very good in the long run. There is lots of execution risk. We are now hearing Congress may not go for these trade deals, it has to be revenue neutral for tax cuts, etc., thus execution risk for the next couple of quarters We just have to be cautious on the markets.

Oil. Hedge funds may be a bit too long on oil. Tom McClellan points out that the “net short” position of the commercials, the opposite side of the speculators, are very net short; in fact, the most “net short” since oil was over $100, and they are the smart money. The speculators are on the other side of this trade. There is probably some more downside to go here. It could push oil down to the low $40s, as those positions unwind. $40-$60 is probably the range for the next couple of years.

Why would bank stocks lose value when interest rates are increased? This isn’t necessarily so. The general perception is that if interest rates go up, their revenues are going to rise which would make them more profitable. It really has to do with interest rate differentials. Banks tend to borrow Short and lend Long. It’s the shape of the yield curve that matters. Typically, the bulk of the lending is going to be in the 5-year range, the home equity lines of credit, the corporate mortgages, commercial mortgages. So it’s Short term rates versus Long-term rates, and if that curve is actually flattening, that means margins get compressed by the Banks. It depends on why interest rates are rising. Are they rising because the economy is taking off and inflation expectations are growing, in which case your yield curve steepening; or is it rising because the Fed is tightening and maybe too much, causing a perception that the economy is going to slow down, and therefore your yield curve is flattening, which would affect bank profits negatively.

Gold? He was buying gold mid December, and sold out at the beginning of January and February. Last week, for the 1^st time, he started nibbling again. He’s been buying pullbacks as a general rule. Doesn’t think gold stocks are going to see the major resistance of last summer of $1350-$1400 any more, so he is inclined to range trade it. What is going to force gold up are bits and pieces of inflation, flight to safety, supply and demand. When it dips below $1200 you Buy, and up above $1300-$1350, you Sell.

Canadian dollar in 3-6 months? A big factor is what oil prices are going to do. What is the spread between interest rates between Canada and the US going to do? Those of the 2 biggest factors. If you look at positioning right now, it is very similar to the oil story. Speculators and the futures market, are long the Cdn$ because they believe oil is going to do well, so there is room here for the Cdn$ to sell off.

This is a bunch of companies that are utilities, telcos, consumer staples; not that different than what you see in Canada, the US and Europe. Not cheap right now. The theory is that if we go into a bear market that is ugly for a while, these are safer stocks. They’ll go down less in a bad market, about half to three quarters of the rate of the broader indexes.

Will the rise in value of this ETF continue? The TD Bank and Bank of Montréal launched some structured products into the market that were linked to the payouts of the preferreds, and they were wildly successful. The demand for these preferreds went through the roof. He doesn’t think this is sustainable and he sold into the rally. He doesn’t like the value up here and is reducing his exposure.

This invests in healthcare related securities, and believes the enhancement comes from an option strategy overlay. Like any other sector, this is fine when it is going up. This ETF tends to have a lot of volatility compared to some of the others. He doesn’t use this, so doesn’t know that much about it. It’s a fine product and he has no issues with it. It has a pretty significant yield, which tends to be what attracts a lot of people. Dividend yield of 8%+ right now.

A Cdn$ Dow Jones Unhedged ETF’s? This is one, but is not sure if other ETF providers in Canada have an unhedged Dow.

Educational Segment: Market Drawdowns. What he calls “market noise” is a 5% correction or less. He looked at the peaks and the lowest lows in a 4-year business cycle since 1920. Looking at the drawdowns over the years, you can see the great depression, where 86% was the drawdown in US large caps. We’ve had several in the 50% range. However, the average surprisingly was 13.4%, and the average was only 10 months long. You tend to get a 5%-13% correction at least once a year, so it is pretty normal to get volatility in the markets. Drawing down a little further, he has a one-year version, which shows that we get more frequent declines. The interesting thing is, if we are down 13.4% from the previous peak, and we look out one year knowing that the bear decline is about 10 months, this is the time to start investing, to get aggressive once the markets are down. Your forward returns go up exponentially from a low point, compared to putting money to work at a high point. We are probably due for a downturn that is going to be about 24% at some point in the next year or 2, so he is playing defence because of that. Once we are down 13.4%, he’ll be thinking about buying.

Market. He is not too concerned about higher rates right now. Everybody is well aware it is coming and it is all priced in. We don’t know if any of Trump’s proposals are going to happen. It’s speculation which makes him nervous. He is not sure Trump’s policies are going to help in the long run. Protectionism and border tax scares him. A lower corporate tax is good. However, he is still fully invested. He is in the fortunate position of doing recommendations and doesn’t manage portfolios. Managing a portfolio would be harder because it would be difficult to unwind a big position. If you have to unwind bigger positions, he would recommend lightening up and going to more conservative, less cyclical type names.

Management has done a good job at trying to turn it around. They made a lot of good moves by shutting down the hardware business or at least slowing it down, and getting into software. It’s a tough task. ROC is very low, and in fact is negative. It is still a long way away from being a good turnaround idea.

He loves this as a long-term hold. A really solid company. A disruptor in a good way. It has been very, very consistent over the years. Always investing in new ideas.

Uranium is always difficult. Every uranium company has had a difficult time earning an acceptable ROC. This has a 4% ROC, and he would have trouble justifying the price.

Got a little bit ahead of itself. A really good company. Very consistent for over 20 years. On either Q3 or Q4 it missed earnings estimates, and the stock got taken down a little, but he wouldn’t let that shake you out. It is still undervalued.