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Basically a financial services company. Historically the US financial service sector starts to get positive on a seasonal basis in the 3rd week in January. It usually goes higher until around the end of April. Currently, the stock has already gone above a key resistance level. The trend is on the upside already. You have all the requirements for an interesting seasonal trade right through until around the beginning of May.
He doesn’t know the seasonality on this, but the technicals show that it has been in an upward trend for quite a period of time. During the last little while, it has been in a trading range between around $19 and $22. It is not unusual for a lot of stocks in the consumer staples sector to have this kind of a pattern. You want to be a buyer of the stock on any kind of weakness close to support, which in this case is around $20. This is for the possibility of a break out above the $22 level. The stock is in an upward trend which is positive. Stick with the stock as long as it stays in an upward trend.
This starts its period of seasonal strength this week, and continues right through until the beginning of May each year. The chart shows this has been in a trading range for quite a period of time, with a slight upward trend. Once it breaks above the resistance level, then you can expect the stock to take another move on the upside.
This is involved in the merger with Potash (POT-T) right now, which will have an impact on pricing for the next little while. Seasonally, the stock has done well from around the beginning of October right through until the 2nd week of February. However, the merger is going to have a greater impact on the stock, one way or another. The period of seasonal strength ends in the middle of February, so it has about another 3 weeks to go.
Gold has 2 periods of seasonal strength. We have just entered one during the last couple of weeks. Historically it does very well from around the 2nd week in December right through until approximately the 1st week in March. Currently it is forming a nice little base and is starting to pick up. Looks like a good trade for the next couple of months.
Seasonality on this is very different than the average retail merchandising US company. He is not even sure of the seasonality. Looking at the technicals, the stock is going in the right direction. The longer-term trend is on the upside. The shorter term trend is still even stronger to the upside. On a relative basis, the stock is very, very strong.
The seasonality for this depends upon when they are using their planes most frequently. That would be Christmas time and summertime. The chart shows this is currently in an upward trend. It has been lagging a little relative to the market during the last 2-3 weeks, but that is not unusual. If you own the stock, you may want to wait until the next period of seasonal strength, around March, for a seasonal trade right through until June.
Seasonal strength appears to be from January through to May of each year, when things are being constructed. We are now just at the beginning of a period of seasonal strength. It’s currently in a trading range, so you want to wait until it breaks above that, but then you have a pretty good chance of seeing the stock test the previous high.
Historically, oil service stocks as well as Canadian energy stocks, reach a very important low early next week. And then they have a very good seasonal trend right through until at least the middle of April. Next week we start the period of seasonal strength just as the stock is establishing an intermediate upward trend. Continue holding the security, and on a break out, buy some more.
