HOLD

A behemoth bank, domiciled originally in Spain, but has global operations. When the US lowered interest rates, ultimately the rest of the world followed. As the US exported capital, hot money moved to different markets. When the US starts to raise rates, capital will flood from other markets. Ultimately there is an expectation that we will see higher rates across the globe when the US raises rates. This bank has big operations in Europe and in south America. An interesting company. Good governance and didn’t blow up during the crisis. He thinks there is more upside here.

DON'T BUY

This has been one train wreck after another. Governors are involved; regulators are involved. Even though there are expectations that rates are going to rise, this is probably one of the most damaged stories in financials. There is probably more upside in the US banks.

COMMENT

Looking at a 30-year chart the stock went from $50 to $50 and peaked out at $500. What is going to be interesting to watch are the “good banks-bad banks” components to see whether or not there is going to be some recovery, and whether ultimately or not that is going to lead to higher returns on a go forward basis. He thinks there is upside here, but we are going to need to see more details once we see higher rates. It is pretty good value here.

COMMENT

Outside of North America, 50% of the company’s revenues come from emerging markets and 50% comes from developed markets. Has a very good dividend and has grown its dividend. Feels the dividend is safe. They are getting to a point where they are probably going to do an acquisition. If you hold this for 10 years, you are going to be fine. However, if your time frame is less than that, you definitely get a great dividend, see some downside, but definitely not the kind of upside that potentially could be offered in other segments.

COMMENT

Why are Telecom stocks down 3%? You need to look at the global telco space. They are all down, and this is on the expectations that we are going to see higher rates. The dividends are growing in the segment and that is going to continue, but we are at a point where secular rotation is going to start to push funds into other areas of the economy, and are going to take capital from areas that have worked. He wouldn’t sell if you are looking for dividends, but if looking for capital gain, this may not be what you are looking for longer-term. Great story and the dividend is safe.

WATCH

The upside for the Internet delivery model, the Cloud, all the back model that is being offered through this company is only going to get better. It is a very pricey stock. To get into it you would need a selloff, but if you are looking for more upside, he would look at Ali Baba (BABA-N). He thinks the space is going to become increasingly interesting as we move into the next phase of the economy, particularly under Trump. This is one to watch.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 4/15. Down 36.53%.) Sold his holdings when it was down about 5%, but with the US currency, he is probably ahead. It is the biggest brewery globally, and went down on slowing Chinese demand. They earn income in Renminbi and report in Hong Kong dollars, which is tied to the US$. It has recently found a floor and is starting to rise up again.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 4/15. Up 12.92%.) Very active in the Florida/Northeast corridor. There is more upside. They don’t have a lot of investment banking business so the regulatory is clear and regulators are not going to be there.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 4/15. Up 18.14%.) This has effectively transformed itself by spinning off their financial assets and its real estate. It has a good dividend. As the US economy and global operations in Europe continues to recover, there is more upside here.

WEAK BUY

There is a lot of heat in these stocks, and they have obviously done really, really well. Thinks they are very hyped at the moment. The best of these stocks, will ultimately be acquired. If you are looking for upside with a lot of speculation, this may be a category to look at, but not the kind of thing you want to risk your savings on.

WAIT

We are starting to see global infrastructure everywhere. These kinds of companies are going to benefit. However, in terms of upside and expectations how many of these projects are shovel ready. You can wait 6 months or so to see how this plays out. It is definitely a segment to watch. He prefers SNC Lavalin (SNC-T).

DON'T BUY

A very well known insurer in the UK. Like all insurance companies, it has had a pretty dismal past 5 years. Higher interest rates will be good for them. The regulatory hammer that is going to be on financials in Europe are still going to be there for a while, so you want to look for companies that have operations outside of Europe.

BUY

Looking at the 10-year chart, this has been a fabulous story. If you take children to their theme parks, you walk away with a lot less money than what you had. The movies tend to move the window from time to time. Sports is also a big thing. Feels the longer-term story is a good one. It is one that you could just put into your portfolio and wait.

COMMENT

Higher rates will push this higher. Higher rates will be stimulative and will create job opportunities in the financial services sector in the US. The banks are well capitalized and the dividends are safe. You might want to start with the regionals, and if you see a freeing regulatory environment, then definitely buy some of the money centred banks like this.

COMMENT

The 5 big banks in Canada are effectively an oligopoly. They are well positioned, but without higher rates the average Canadian is leveraged to the gills. Mortgage debt is very, very high. There will be some upside, but there is going to be more upside in US operations. There is some upside here, but not to the same extent that there is in the US.