He admires Prem Watsa and the company he has built. Extremely well-run, but it is an insurance business, particularly in property and casualty. A highly, highly variable business. Sometimes the combined ratios are in your favour and you make a lot of money, and sometimes the premium intake doesn’t cover the expenses. This company has always relied on its investment acumen. People taking a longer term point of view stands a better chance of making money, but shouldn’t expect a smooth ride given the nature of the businesses that it is in. This doesn’t look like an unreasonable place to position yourself, but you have to be willing to be a long-term player.
This has gone up because it has been very leveraged to the commodity cycle, and commodities have done a bit better. However, it is a lot more dependent on coal than it used to be. Coal markets are not as in equilibrium as they had been, and have been under pressure lately, which gives him some concern. This is a more aggressive play. He has a little bit of this for some of his more aggressive accounts, but for lesser aggressive accounts, he uses Hudbay Minerals (HBM-T) as an alternative.
This has been the star of Canadian retailers, and has held up very well. It has done extremely well over the last number of years despite retail undergoing the biggest shift in technology in the way people shop. They have a new CEO, who he believes is going to take a longer-term focus and position them for going forward. It still looks a little expensive to him. If he saw it correct 10%-15% from here, he would be taking a really serious look at it.
(A Top Pick July 29/15. Down 19.79%.) People are a little concerned about its exposure to Asia and the slowdown that is occurring there. At this price you have the ability to buy a well-run insurance company that has de-risked its balance sheet greatly over the last number of years. It has changed its product mix to the extent that it is a lot less market sensitive than it used to be. Trading at less than BV, and is still a Buy.
The bulk of this company is their investment in Power Financial (PWF-T). You could look at either one of these, but today with Power Financial you are getting a little bit of a premium in the yield. For longer-term investors, they are going to see dividend increases in both companies. Of the 2, he would prefer Power Financial which has a yield of 5.2% versus 4.8%.
This has been positioned in a unique line of financing that makes it stand out. The only problem he has is the valuation. As a value investor, he finds it very difficult to pay for future growth without using a fairly severe discount rate on it. You have to take a longer-term view of the stock. This contains a great component of companies in a rather unique area.
Trading at 3X earnings, because earnings have done relatively well recently. He doesn’t like investing in airline stocks, which are capital intensive, highly unionized and very cyclical. This has just gone through a great positive cycle where earnings have gone up. You want to look at these when they aren’t earning very much and have been in a downtrend.
Markets. There is a lot of fear mongering by politicians, particularly with BREXIT and what we are seeing in the US. People are upset and politicians are finding it very easy to point fingers at globalization and free trade as being culprits, rather than at the effects of technology. Those jobs are probably never going to come back, but will be supplanted by technology to a great extent. We are undergoing a major shift in the workforce, which is having an effect on the markets. They have been trying to keep things going since 2008 through zero to negative interest rate policies globally. Today we have over $13 trillion of “negative” trading bonds in an attempt to keep the economy limping along. He questions if politics can trump economics in the end, but somehow doubts it. The economic cycle is alive and well, and we are going to go into a period of greater volatility. There is a bifurcation of markets with the bond market telling you things don’t look so good going ahead. At some point postings have got to come together, which will provide a real opportunity for value investors. Expects people will come to realize that expansion of trade and expansion of economics is good for jobs in the long run.