3rd largest bus transportation company in North America. The key driver for growth is fleet buses, the number of buses they are operating, which is currently 13,000. However, revenues are shrinking at about two thirds of what they used to be. The other issue is the greater CapX required. In 2014, this was $28 million, and for 2016 it will be $60 million. Historically they have paid a very, very robust dividend, currently 10.7% through serial issuance of debt and equity. Effectively you are buying a high-yield bond.
If you are looking for a longer-term growth play with some income, then he would recommend this. Currently trading at about 9X price to cash flow on a forward basis. He would like it at about 8X, which would be in the mid to high $40 area. If you are interested in being in energy, this is probably one of the best places to be, because you have a great amount of certainty with cash flows and an excellent portfolio of assets in their pipeline. Dividend yield of 3.6%.
Has a significant amount of cash on the balance sheet. Valuation is trading low, but right now they are in somewhat of a limbo phase. There is not a great deal of excitement with regards to any of the new ventures they are going into. Over the long-term, you could see incremental increases in their dividend. There is a big CapX spend coming up, and most of the analysts don’t know what it is in respect to. This is cheap in absolute terms.
Senior housing and senior living has seen a lot of M&A activity. A lot of the US REITs are coming up to Canada to pick away at some of our assets, as valuations are cheaper and Cap rates (the net operating income generated versus the cost to buy them) are higher. Currently it is a little bit expensive. Price to AFFO is 17X. Dividend yield of close to 5%. He would prefer Sienna (SIA-T), which has a higher yield and a lower payout ratio and trading at a Price to AFFO of 13X.
(A Top Pick July 18/14. Down 41.99%.) Reduced his holdings by half in October. This is probably one of the better companies to be able to ride out the storm. Have significantly reduced CapX by about 30%. They are trying to rein in on going just for the production development that is going to be required, and hold off on any future CapX spending. Have wonderful assets in thermal oil sands that they can just sit on and wait until there is a better opportunity. Very clean balance sheet.
(A Top Pick July 18/14. Up 14.85%.) Acquired Covidian at about $43 billion, and moved their headquarters to Dublin Ireland for lower taxes. The acquisition transforms them into the largest medical device company globally. It also gives them line of sight to be more significant in emerging markets, as well as general surgical tools. Dividend yield of 2.16%.
A lot of these heavy income names have taken a tumble. You are looking at a forward price to cash valuation of 4X. Ultra, ultra cheap. Management historically has serially issued equity to be able to pay out dividends. Now they are using existing cash flow. Cash flow is still very healthy. They are probably going to be able to ride out the energy problem better. If there is a recovery in oil, this will rebound much faster than others. Excellent assets with light oil exposure. Dividend yield of 7%.
Markets. Global GDP is going to be muted. The reason you saw the Fed make the stance that they did, was that they threw in this component of having to be concerned about what international markets are doing. It makes a problem much more multi-layered than just looking at jobs and inflation in isolation. As an investor, you just stay the course, but you have to be selective. What is happening, especially in the Canadian market, is that you are getting a bifurcation. Anything that is tied to commodities is completely ignored for the time being. There is going to be more volatility that the investor has to accept. A sector for all seasons would be healthcare, as well as some areas within technology, where you are going to be able to drive a margin expansion story. For companies this means cash flow growth, and this is where you hang your hat.