PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 5/15. Down 6.83%.) (Short.) Covered his Short before the end of the seasonal period. He had a marginal loss with this trade. US housing starts tend to be very strong from October 28 to Feb 3, and tends to be relatively flat the rest of the year. He was trying to take advantage of that negative time. We have now seen housing starts being very strong, which has helped drive this particular security up. That is a positive signal that the next seasonal trade coming up in October has more of a tendency to work.

TOP PICK

(A Top Pick May 5/15. Down 0.29%.) This tends to do well from May until October. Sold his holdings on Aug 21, before the market dropped. On average, this is the best major sector of the market in October. This is a good sector as far as the broad market goes.

COMMENT

Canadian bank stocks? The best time to be in these is from Oct 10 until Dec 31, and sometimes you want to get out at the end of November. (There is another period from January into April.) This is because the banks Q4 ends on Oct 31 and they come up with earnings in November. Usually this is when they come out with their best earnings and when they do their dividend increases and have their stock splits. Banks have been beaten up because of what is happening in Canada. This year will be interesting because we will start to see some of the ripple effect from the oil patch. If we do see a pickup in October, it might be a good opportunity to step in, and use a Stop underneath.

WAIT

This is going to be based a lot on the economy overall. The chart is very positive as it had a positive break out from a long consolidation period. It has turned back down again. If it breaks down below its support line of around $15, that will be negative. Wait for a clear direction on the broad market.

DON'T BUY

In this kind of environment we have a lot of volatility taking place, and investors are not going to tolerate the lack of visibility going forward. The overall trend over 2014-2015 has been down. This is one that he would be staying away from.

COMMENT

Like all gold stocks, this has been absolutely pummeled. Gold stocks are very undervalued relative to gold bullion. This stock is in a base pattern. From a seasonal perspective, we are coming up to the end of the gold period for stocks, September 25. Gold and gold stocks have a historic pattern of underperforming in October.

COMMENT

Technically there is some support at around $37 from 2014. When the August correction took place, it did not come down to its support, which is a positive. From a technical perspective, if it holds the support, that would be a positive sign. If it breaks below $36-$37, we are actually in trouble.

COMMENT

This has been a roller coaster. There was some really strong performance in 2014, and it was getting way ahead of itself. There has been a pullback in the whole transportation sector. This one stumbled in Q2. Didn’t meet expectations. The sector has come back a lot. Fundamentally, the P/E ratio for the last 5 years has been about 19, and is currently trading at about 18.4. Seasonally the transportation sector tends to do well starting in October, so this is a good time to start taking a look at the railways. It may start a little bit late because of the overall drag of what has happened with the whole commodities sector passing through. Starting to look like a good opportunity.

WAIT

This had a strong run through 2014-2015. When you are doing growth by acquisition, you have to be able to execute on them. It pulled back down significantly. It is difficult in this type of environment. When the market is doing really well, there is a lack of opportunity for Canadian investors to go into other places. With energy doing so poorly, a lot of growth by acquisition stories were favoured. Chart shows a big correction that has taken place followed by a little bit of a bounce. He would wait for it to show a little bit more strength before stepping in.

COMMENT

Fertilizer stocks have a seasonal period that starts in late June and runs until the end of the year. The strongest of the sweet spot for a trade is October.

TOP PICK

There are 2 seasonal periods for natural gas. One is the cooling season in the summertime and the other is the heating season in the wintertime. Natural gas has a tendency to perform well from Sept 5 to Dec 21. Chart shows a nice base, and if it is able to break above that, it will be very positive.

TOP PICK

He is looking to deploy his cash as the opportunity comes up, which might be the beginning of October. Technology tends to do well and Canadian banks start to do well. There is still a lot of volatility in the market, but on average this is a bit of a softer time, so cash is pretty good for the short term. He looks to be fully invested by the end of October.