Today, Jerome Hass and Michael Smedley commented about whether TOY-T, MIDD-Q, LULU-Q, HLTH-A, ENGH-T, CAR.UN-T, CTC.A-T, CSH.UN-T, BEE-X, MSL-T, GIB.A-T, CXR-T, JKPTF-5, GUD-T, NA-T, MITL-Q, GXE-T, GSY-T, CPH-T, IFA-T, ASG-X, WEF-T, PHM-X, KLS-T, EUO-X, TSGI-T, NYX-X, HNL-T, GRC-X, CSW.A-T, DCI-T, FRU-T, CWB-T, M-X, PRW-T, ORT-T, QTRH-T, LB-T, CXI-T, CGX-T, CBL-T, SJ-T, ACQ-T, ECI-T, SFD-T, HCG-T are stocks to buy or sell.
Took it on the chin this summer, largely on concerns of what has been happening in Australia. Thinks these are mis-founded concerns. They introduced Tap & Go. Instead of using your credit card, and typing it in, you can just tap it in, which had a significant impact on the use of ATMs in Australia. Management estimates that there is about a 10% reduction in transactional volumes in Australia, so during Q2 they pushed about a 6% price increase in Australia, which helped to mitigate some of that slow down. Also, pushed through a 20% price increase in Canada, following suit of what the banks had done, so we are going to see the full impact of that in Q3. Thinks it is going to be pretty decent. The company is very cheap. Dividend is sustainable. At the end of the day he thinks this is going to be a great long-term performer.
Pernod, the parent, owns about 51% of the company, so there is no chance of a take out. This controls 1 in 5 Spirit bottles in Canada. They can always make licensing in, or brand acquisitions in Canada, so there is some scope for growth. For him it is a liquidity issue. Institutions are very scared of a stock like this because it is hard to get in and very hard to get out. If you are in the name you have to be willing to stick around for a very long time.
A royalty trust, which essentially takes stakes in companies. Currently has 25. In exchange for that they take a royalty on the sales of the business. He likes that royalties are based on revenues rather than earnings. The royalty profile is a lot more stable than the typical private equity fund or venture capital fund. It also gives him exposure to a broad number of names. He wants this to eventually have 50-75 names, so the specific risk in any one company is relatively small. Non-resources, so no extraction, no oil and gas, etc. Very cheap at these levels. Dividend yield of 8.46%.
(A Pairs trade. Long NYX and Short Amaya.) This IPO’d Dec 30 and he thought it was under covered and modestly valued relative to the rest of the sector. Also, liked the business model. They provide the hardware and software behind a lot of the online gaming. It got caught in the downwind of the rest of the sector, and in order to get some protection he shorted Amaya.
Markets. You have most things descending, because it a bear market. It is also a summer lull market, and we are also inflicted with amazing global events, which he thinks has stunned us. We also have political events. A bit of a frustrating market. As we come out of the summer, perhaps we will slowly get into a better theme, but he doesn’t think stocks will be up by the end of the year. The refugee situation is a massive historical change.
Sold his holdings last December and hasn’t looked at the valuations since. However, as a long-term story, he thinks it is a great one. Dividend yield of over 10%, which usually indicates a bit of a warning signal. If you own, he would just stick with it right through this downturn. 3-5 years from now you will be very happy.