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Markets. Santa Claus rally normally starts around the middle of December and goes right through until 2 trading days after the beginning of January. It is on track again this year. The question is, what is going to happen after that. All the economically sensitive sectors are probably going to have a difficult time going into the month of January and into February. Also on a technical basis, markets are overbought right now and are vulnerable to a correction, so be very careful after next Monday. The next big issue to watch is going to be 4th quarter results. This year the big impact is caused by the US$. On average the US$ makes up over 10% on a year-over-year basis. This crunches earnings by the big cap companies that have international operations and means 4th quarter results on a year-over-year basis is not so good for the big companies in the US. However, what is bad for the US is good for Canada. The Cdn$ has been coming down, so we have actually benefited from the currency. The average gain for the TSX 60 companies is about 7% on a year-over-year basis. Historically in a pre-election year in a US residential cycle, we have a huge run from the beginning of January right through until the middle of July with an average gain of about 12% over the last 85 years.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Still in an upward trend and is outperforming the Canadian market. All the technicals are lined up. On a seasonality basis it does very well 2 times in the year. From October right through until November, and then from February into May. You want to play these opportunities when they become available. On a short-term basis this is probably going to sit here for a while. As you get into February seasonality clicks in once again. Watch for a chance to buy on weakness between now and the end of February.

COMMENT

US financial service industry has a period of seasonal strength from around the middle of December right through until the end of April. Credit cards have done very well during the recent Christmas period, so look for them to report some pretty good numbers. Technically this looks very, very good. This is the highest priced stock in the industrial average, and has the biggest impact of any stock in the Dow Jones. Technically it is in an upward trend, and if the Dow is going to go higher in 2015, watch this stock in particular because it will be a leader in what happens to the Dow.

BUY ON WEAKNESS

Has just recently gone to a new high which is a very good sign. Typically most energy stocks do very well from the end of January right through until May of each year. We are not into a period of seasonal strength yet, but are getting close so you want to continue to hold this. Technicals are also good. Look to buy on any kind of weakness in the next month or so.

DON'T BUY

Seasonality is usually the best between May and October of each year. Technically it is not so good. Has been in a trading range, and is now getting close to the bottom of it. It will be reporting lower earnings for the 4th quarter. There are better opportunities elsewhere.

HOLD

Disney (DIS-N) or Yahoo (YHOO-Q) for a one year Hold? Both stocks have done very, very well and are both in a period of seasonal strength right now. This one’s period of strength is from October right through until at least the end of February and sometimes even longer. Hold them both, but both of them are getting closer to the end of their period of seasonal strength.

HOLD

Disney (DIS-N) or Yahoo (YHOO-Q) for a one year Hold? Both stocks have done very, very well and are both in a period of seasonal strength right now. This is a technology company, and its period of strength tends to peak around the end of January. On this one you can hold a little longer. Consider taking some money off as you get into late January.

COMMENT

US banks ETF? This is an excellent choice, because seasonality is really clicking in from about the middle of December right through until April of each year. The ETF’s that are most useful is the SPDR Financial (XLF-N), or, if looking for large caps, SPDR S&P Bank (KBE-N). KBE looks very interesting on the charts right now.

BUY

US banks ETF? This is an excellent choice, because seasonality is really clicking in from about the middle of December right through until April of each year. The ETF’s that are most useful is the SPDR Financial (XLF-N). If you are looking for large caps, this one looks very interesting on the charts right now. Started having momentum in the last few days and is starting to outperform the market.

WATCH

Gold companies are looking for opportunities to lower costs and stay economic. Lower gold prices have made it difficult for them. This one has been hammered during the past year and is trying to form a nice little base pattern. Gold has 2 periods of seasonal strength, July through to October, and the middle of December through to the middle of March. Watch for gold and gold stocks to move significantly higher on a seasonal basis.

WATCH

Gold companies are looking for opportunities to lower the costs and stay economic. Lower gold prices have made a difficult for them. This has been hammered during the past year and is finally showing signs of bottoming and starting to form a nice little base pattern. If it moves above its trading range, then it is off to the races. Gold has 2 periods of seasonal strength, July through to October and the middle of December through to the middle of March. Watch for gold and gold stocks to move significantly higher on a seasonal basis.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 1/14. Up 12.62%.) Seasonality for transports is normally from mid-October right through until around the end of November. It then takes a bit of a break and then, right around the end of January, it clicks and goes up until April. Technically it is underperforming the market.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 1/14. Up 7.17%.) Historically this tends to move up from the middle of October right through until around the end of the 2nd or 3rd week in January. We are getting closer and closer to the period where you want to take some profits. Look for an opportunity to take profits on news around the middle of January.

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick Oct 1/14. Up 11.05%.) On a seasonal basis, this still looks very good. This particular security has a positive seasonality from the middle of October right through until the end of April.

COMMENT

Technicals on this company are not great. Chart shows a long period of a downward trend followed by a short downward trend. Seasonally this usually does well from about May right through until October of each year.