Everything has happened wrong with the stock. Bad weather, falling nitrogen prices due to China exports, etc. Now you have falling corn prices. Had elevated natural gas prices, but now have lower prices which should help. The bottom line is that farmers are spending only 30% of their budgets on fertilizer, which is the lowest in a decade. He sees the trend normalizing eventually. Sees really big cash flow coming on in 2015, mostly from cost cutting and synergies. Has potential for dividend growth, buybacks as well as a higher share price. This has a very long term secular tailwind of population growth and the need to increase yield per unit of farmland.
Nobody wants to buy this at its high price, but it is cheaper than its peers. 6.2% times 2015 estimates versus the peers at around 6.5%. Given the quality of this name, their higher return on assets, buybacks, dividend growth and acquisition opportunities, they should trade higher at 6.75%. US price is about $110, and he sees it going to $150 US. Raised their guidance on sales and margins in Q1, and he sees upside for both North American and European margins. He estimates they can grow their dividend at 31% in 2015 as well as a 16.5% buyback.