Latest Stock Buy or Sell? Make More Informed Decisions!

Markets. Target Date funds in the US. You buy a retirement package that matures late in your life. Dropped in 2008 even though it was designed not to. They don’t eliminate volatility, but over the long run they do well. The growth of this sector is fantastic and they are now coming to ETFs. You can buy target date ETFs. 17 basis points cost. A robo-advisor is a program on the Internet that spits out a portfolio when you put in your risk tolerance, etc. There will be a correction at some point. This is when you need your advisor.

The only bank that has not made all time highs yet. It is his least favourite. He prefers TD-T, or BNS-T even more because of Latin American exposure. Reaching out to cheaper assets outside of North America has created the best growth profiles. ZWB-T is the better way to play banks right now.

Over the last year we are seeing some distribution coming in. The highs this year are going to be tough to take out. In the next year or two they will come back to test it. It is a $120 to $140 trading range. If it goes below $120 it could go to $80. Internally the stock is starting to weaken relative to major stock indices. Tighten up stops.

You get a partial return of capital as part of your 6%. It is tax efficient for now.

REITs are interest rate sensitive. It looks like the Fed consensus is to raise the interest rates around mid-next year (March to June). The market knows this. The economy needs low interest rates right now. He thinks the rise in interest rates when it comes will be little.

Because volatility is right now at all time lows. The cheapest form of insurance is options. A put option on the S&P or TSX will hedge you against a 5%+ decline and cost about 5%. Buy put protection from the indexes. He thinks the correction will be 5-10%, but not 20%.

Has a lot to do with what the Canadian dollar does. They have done well recently as the Canadian dollar has done well. The Canadian dollar has done the best of its rally for now. There is decent support around $14ish, but rallies will be limited. You are trading-range bound. He is a bit cautious about the prospects for the US housing market.

Markets. Rates: They are looking for lower for longer. The US economy should do better in the second half. Longer data rates should inch higher in the next year. As data from the markets comes in stronger, the Fed should be pushed a little. Jobs data coming out later this week should be mild. There should be no rate adjustment in Canada in the next while and the economy should lag the US in growth. Play a bit defensive, overweight good quality corporations. Get some US dollar exposure. Maintain a short duration portfolio.

Rising Interest Rates – how to play in the short term: You don’t want to get too bearish on bonds too soon. Own a fund that has the ability to own floating rate bonds, rather than own them directly, so they can manage them.

Floating rate high yield. Chart is almost flat. You are waiting for central banks. You will wait for another year. It is dead money for a while.

Bonds 2026. Tricky company. It is making a massive bet on the ‘C’ series jet. Risk rewards are suggesting looking elsewhere.

Educational Segment. Does Rally Have More Room to Run? Divergence readings continue to build and sentiment indicators are not extremely bearish or bullish. Market breadth lets you see what’s going on under the market. Advance/decline lines show how many stocks go up vs. down. NYSE A/D line has made higher highs whereas the NASDAQ has not. Russell 2000 stocks corrected 10% this year and other small caps corrected up to 20%. The large cap market did not correct during this time. Last week the R2000 came very close to a high. The NASDAQ has not made a new high. History tells us that the Large Caps should follow suit, but he is only looking for a 5-10% correction. There is no reason for a bigger correction at this point.

Convertible Debentures. Tricky security. Make a lot of sense in theory. If the stock does really well you have upside participation. The strike price is usually 25-50% above the current price of the issue, and the paper is subordinate. You want to be careful about where you are in the capital structure.

8% bond maturing June 15/20. (Top Pick Aug 13/13, Up 13.00%) It no longer qualified as capital under new rules. They exchanged this bond for qualifying capital. It is essentially the same credit. He still likes the bank.

10.5% bond maturing April 27/17. (Top Pick Aug 13/13, Up 16.00%) US$ Bond. It is a cement company that is being consolidated in China. He bought more after it dropped.