DON'T BUY
Natural Gas ETF. In 1 year gas will definitely be higher than what it is now. Longer term, 3-5 years, it will probably be in the $6-$8 range. Most equities are pricing in $6 to $7 gas so there is not as much upside as you would think. This ETF is based on the next contract, which is 1 month. Contract is rolled every month and every time the price is higher you end up buying fewer contracts so you could actually lose money even though the price might be $6. Timeframe for an investor would be 2 or 3 days.
SELL
Most of its value is in Fort Hills. With the PetroCan (PCA-T) and Suncor (SU-T) merger this will be put on the back burner and it looks like Fort Hills will not even be discussed until next year. Would rotate out of this into PetroCan.
BUY
Merging with Suncor (SU-T) and would prefer to buy this rather than Suncor as the deal risk is minimal. Thinks government and shareholders will let the deal go through. A cheaper way to go.
HOLD
Short term, it looks like there will be a strike in Sudbury, which will definitely be negative as they have to process ores through Sudbury smelters. Not a lot of nickel plays out there.
COMMENT
Merging with Petrocan (PCA-T). Doesn't expect there will be a takeover offer as it would have been on the table by now and also not sure the government would allow it. When the 2 companies come together, it will be a flagship company.
COMMENT
Being acquired by Chinese Sinopec. There are other bidders but believes this deal will be done.
SELL
Doesn't see it going back to $5 as their last issue was dilutive. The Alberta royalty review will certainly help them somewhat but because of their balance sheet issues they can't drill as much as they really need to grow the company. Consider tax loss selling.
COMMENT
One of the lowest cost producers. Difficulty past year has been debt so had to do a stock issue. Also growing very quickly and declines were very high but are starting to slow down. Still trying to understand how they will look in 2011. Currently doesn't have balance sheet strength to grow. Could see another 15%-20% decline. Because of hedging, distribution should be safe but it could be cut for their financial stability. This could give a buying opportunity.
HOLD
Very cheap and very good asset base however over the past few years they have struggled to reach production targets.
WATCH
Technically have done a very good job on their 1st project of Pod 1. Have been trying to raise money for their next job, Algar. As a result have stretched their balance sheet. One of the most leveraged plays to oil. Could potentially be 20,000 barrels a day producer.
COMMENT
Very good assets. Did a very good job developing their last acquisition. Starting to look more attractive but need capital to grow more. Because of disappointments in the past they have struggled to get capital.
SELL
In an exceedingly precarious position right now because there debt to cash flow is 17 times. Normal for this time of the cycle is 2 times. Has the potential to go to zero.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Has a lot of leverage to oil prices and a fantastic asset base at Syncrude.
BUY
(Market Call Minute.) Have tremendous production growth out of Colombia.
HOLD
(Market Call Minute.) Very, very cheap stock. Fantastic balance sheet but it is very tough to see how they are going to grow.