
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1918 Opinions
The hyperscalers are doing great, as are the connectors. The whole infrastructure buildout is doing well. That's sort of the bullseye, and then around them you have tools like the large language models. And then the applications surround all that.
Most of the large language models are private. Anthropic, Grok, and OpenAI. It's difficult to get all the information. Hopefully they'll go public and they'll have to be a lot more transparent, as that's the "glue" between the infrastructure and the applications for the end users.
They stick to their knitting on stock portfolios. They know where they want to enter and where they want to exit. There's a farm league of other companies that they'd like to put into the portfolio when they exit something.
Some of the magic they add is on the hedging. Sometimes it works, sometimes it doesn't. With the recent volatility in the market, they're finding that the hedge can actually contribute profits (rather than just acting as an insurance policy). They had dialled up the hedge to 80-90% of the notional value of stock portfolios (last time they did that, was in Spring 2020 going into Covid). This past Tuesday, they took almost all of it back.
Absolutely put money in today. Trying to find their way, but not giving full guidance and spending a heck of a lot of $$. Thinks they're purposely not communicating fully. Taking $$ from EVs and redeploying into retooling for Optimus. A lot has to go right on execution. On Tuesday, MS put price target at $475.
His team has been writing calls -- that's been working because the price has come down and the volatility's really high. One of three companies forming a monopoly, so you have to have a position. His price target is $1508, but expects the better part of the summer to see consolidation in a wide range.
Price target in 12 months of $182.25, long runway. Government side is massive, so fully integrated into so many defense systems around the world. Needs to strengthen enterprise side. CEO's abruptness turns people off in the way Elon Musk does. Definitely buy some here, more ~$115, and the rest ~$105.
Circuit boards and lighting for both commercial and defense contracts. Popped, as it was chosen for Canada's firefighting aircraft. Don't buy here, but hold if you already own it. Runway to price target is very close.
Keep it on your radar. If you can get it closer to $20, $19, and $18, you should do very well with it.