
President and Portfolio Manager at Black Swan Dexteritas
Member since: Jun '18 · 1855 Opinions
You can definitely see the winners and losers. Even with the Mag 7, META took it on the chin. As did MSFT. But on the other side of the coin (and a bit of a surprise), AAPL is a shiny apple ;) NVDA earnings come out 2 weeks today, and that'll be the end of earnings season.
Earnings have definitely been a catalyst to send the NASDAQ for the better part of almost 2000 points. Once NVDA comes out, it may go back to the macro side of things.
If you look on the charts, the NASDAQ (the barometer of the tech arena) is 12-14% above its 50-day moving average. Whenever it gets up here, it tends to fall off.
A lot of people are going to be writing calls at this point. There's been a lot of FOMO, especially by the retail community. He thinks it's sort of the last gasp.
Levels of the stack: infrastructure and picks/shovels, platforms that facilitate workflows, and then end users make up the top stack. Today, everyone's flooding toward the picks & shovels. But that's because of the earnings that came out.
When he was on the show about a month ago, investors were looking at the end users and enterprise companies that were applying AI tools. This shows through in healthcare, banks, and industrials (such as ETN and TT). These companies are talking on their earnings calls about how AI is feeding to the bottom line.
His 12-month price target is $107.50. Celebrating its 50th anniversary! And it's a leader, competing so well with the big consultancy companies. Tough business in this environment, where the focus is less on consulting and more on hardware.
One of its businesses involves helping small- to medium sized companies manoeuvre through the AI stack. Thinks that's the way going forward.
Reported last night, down ~16% as of right now. Beat on top and bottom. Problem, again, was on guidance. He suspects they weren't as efficient on the supply chain. His position is less than 2%. Great buying opportunity. Thinks analysts' price targets may come down to ~$170.
CSCO is a competitor and reports next week....should be interesting.