Opinions by Bryden Teich | StockChase
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Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Jan 2018

Avenue Investment Management


Opinions by Bryden Teich


Signal Opinion Expert Chart
COMMENT
General Market Comment 

May 11, 2018

Market. Earnings have come up very strong in the last couple of weeks. Also, oil and other commodities started to rally. 15 times earnings for the TSX is god value. Banks earnings are expected to come pretty strong. They are staring to trim some positions in US and finding value in Canada. The differential between US crude oil and what Canadian firms get has come down to 18 dollars from 30 dollars in the summer. Hopefully there is a positive regulatory approval with Enbridge (ENB-T) on Line 3 and the political debacle that has come from Trans Mountain. That should alleviate some of the differential. It feels like there is some inflation in the system. The Fed has signaled that they are looking to raise once a quarter. The Bank of Canada has been more cautious. Clearly the yield curve is flattening and that is signaling that we are in the 8th or 9th inning of this expansion. Commodities start to heat up in the last part of the cycle. 

Market. Earnings have come up very strong in the last couple of weeks. Also, oil and other commodities started to rally. 15 times earnings for the TSX is god value. Banks earnings are expected to come pretty strong. They are staring to trim some positions in US and finding value in Canada. The differential between US crude oil and what Canadian firms get has come down to 18 dollars from 30 dollars in the summer. Hopefully there is a positive regulatory approval with Enbridge (ENB-T) on Line 3 and the political debacle that has come from Trans Mountain. That should alleviate some of the differential. It feels like there is some inflation in the system. The Fed has signaled that they are looking to raise once a quarter. The Bank of Canada has been more cautious. Clearly the yield curve is flattening and that is signaling that we are in the 8th or 9th inning of this expansion. Commodities start to heat up in the last part of the cycle. 

Unknown
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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COMMENT
General Market Comment 

May 11, 2018

With interest rates rising should P/E multiples fall? - Exactly what is happening so far this year. For yields to really compete with stocks they should be upwards of 4 - 5 %. There is still room for the stock market to come down. There is geopolitical risk. But they are still constructive on the stock market particularly in Canada. 

With interest rates rising should P/E multiples fall? - Exactly what is happening so far this year. For yields to really compete with stocks they should be upwards of 4 - 5 %. There is still room for the stock market to come down. There is geopolitical risk. But they are still constructive on the stock market particularly in Canada. 

Unknown
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$0.020
Owned Owned
_N/A

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HOLD
Altagas Ltd(ALA-T) 

May 11, 2018

Dividend yield of 8.5%. They sold it in January. They took on a lot of debt to fund some recent acquisitions. The rating agencies have it on a negative watch because of this. They are trying to do private equity in public markets and they hit a window where funding is a little tight. He thinks the dividend is still safe. 

oil/gas

Dividend yield of 8.5%. They sold it in January. They took on a lot of debt to fund some recent acquisitions. The rating agencies have it on a negative watch because of this. They are trying to do private equity in public markets and they hit a window where funding is a little tight. He thinks the dividend is still safe. 

oil/gas
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$25.480
Owned Owned
No

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Down 14%) Still likes it. Hurricane season last year really affected their distribution center in the US. Same-store sales in the US were also weak. They are very well diversified. At 13.5 times earnings they like it even more now. They just added to their position. 

food stores

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Down 14%) Still likes it. Hurricane season last year really affected their distribution center in the US. Same-store sales in the US were also weak. They are very well diversified. At 13.5 times earnings they like it even more now. They just added to their position. 

food stores
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$53.600
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Down 14%) Still likes it. Hurricane season last year really affected their distribution center in the US. Same-store sales in the US were also weak. They are very well diversified. At 13.5 times earnings they like it even more now. They just added to their position. 

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Down 14%) Still likes it. Hurricane season last year really affected their distribution center in the US. Same-store sales in the US were also weak. They are very well diversified. At 13.5 times earnings they like it even more now. They just added to their position. 

0
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$48.370
Owned Owned
Yes

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BUY

Part of their commodity exposure. They added when it came off in mid-November. They shut-down some of their mines in the last couple of months. The goal was to clean up the market a little as there has been excess supply for a while. Now demand is starting to pick up. Great company. 

integrated mines

Part of their commodity exposure. They added when it came off in mid-November. They shut-down some of their mines in the last couple of months. The goal was to clean up the market a little as there has been excess supply for a while. Now demand is starting to pick up. Great company. 

integrated mines
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$14.730
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD

Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil. 

specialty stores

Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil. 

specialty stores
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$162.470
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Cenovus Energy(CVE-T) 

May 11, 2018

Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil. 

oil/gas

Had there been 4 top picks this would have been the fourth. He really likes it. They bought Conoco assets last year. The street didn’t like the deal and lost confidence in Management. They have new Management now with a new CEO that is on the path of right-sizing the company and its balance sheet. It is looking really well now, particularly if we go to a 80 – 90 dollars barrel of oil. 

oil/gas
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$13.990
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
CVS Health Corp(CVS-N) 

May 11, 2018

Have been caught up in the negativity about drugs pricing in the US. Because of this you are paying less than 9 times earnings. Good margins. Very consistent cash flow streams. Yield 3.1% (Analysts’ price target is $86.9)

specialty stores

Have been caught up in the negativity about drugs pricing in the US. Because of this you are paying less than 9 times earnings. Good margins. Very consistent cash flow streams. Yield 3.1% (Analysts’ price target is $86.9)

specialty stores
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$64.410
Owned Owned
Yes

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PAST TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

May 11, 2018

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Up 5%.)  He really likes it. Still one of his top picks. They have been pounding the table about this name. Double down on their position around mid-November. 

oil/gas pipelines

(A Top Pick March 1/18 - Up 5%.)  He really likes it. Still one of his top picks. They have been pounding the table about this name. Double down on their position around mid-November. 

oil/gas pipelines
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$43.140
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Enbridge(ENB-T) 

May 11, 2018

Just reported strong earnings. All the negative headlines are fully on the stock. They are putting 50-year assets in the ground. Yield 6.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $52.12)

oil/gas pipelines

Just reported strong earnings. All the negative headlines are fully on the stock. They are putting 50-year assets in the ground. Yield 6.2%. (Analysts’ price target is $52.12)

oil/gas pipelines
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$43.140
Owned Owned
Yes

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COMMENT

They had troubles last year with mortgages issues. Their last quarter was pretty decent. They prefer in the alternative lending space Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF-T). 

investment companies/funds

They had troubles last year with mortgages issues. Their last quarter was pretty decent. They prefer in the alternative lending space Timbercreek Financial Corp (TF-T). 

investment companies/funds
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$14.210
Owned Owned
No

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BUY

Basically, the merged company between Digital Globe and McDonald Dettwiler. Huge growth opportunity. They took a lot of debt to fund the acquisition. Valuation is good. Business is really good going forward. 

computer software/processing

Basically, the merged company between Digital Globe and McDonald Dettwiler. Huge growth opportunity. They took a lot of debt to fund the acquisition. Valuation is good. Business is really good going forward. 

computer software/processing
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$61.180
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Morgan Stanley(MS-N) 

May 11, 2018

Right time in the cycle to own a name like this. Wealth management, broader exposure to the US investment management business and investment banking side. They favor Bank of America Corp (BAC-N). It has more operating leverage. 

investment companies/funds

Right time in the cycle to own a name like this. Wealth management, broader exposure to the US investment management business and investment banking side. They favor Bank of America Corp (BAC-N). It has more operating leverage. 

investment companies/funds
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$55.200
Owned Owned
No

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COMMENT

They came under pressure in the last few years because of their exposure to retail and the sentiment around retail couldn’t be any worse. He thinks it is very difficult for them going forward to grow with their traditional assets. They prefer SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trst (SRU.UN-T) which has 25% tied to Walmart. It is more agile being smaller. 

property mngmnt/investment

They came under pressure in the last few years because of their exposure to retail and the sentiment around retail couldn’t be any worse. He thinks it is very difficult for them going forward to grow with their traditional assets. They prefer SmartCentres Real Estate Investment Trst (SRU.UN-T) which has 25% tied to Walmart. It is more agile being smaller. 

property mngmnt/investment
Bryden Teich

Portfolio Manager, Avenue Investment Ma...

PricePrice
$23.920
Owned Owned
No

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