Stock Opinions by Paul Larson - Stockchase Experts
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Paul Larson

On Stockchase since : Aug 2008

Equity strategist at MorningStar Inc.

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Paul Larson Latest Top Picks...

Stock Opinions by Paul Larson - Stockchase Experts

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BUY
Microsoft(MSFT-Q) 

August 22, 2008

Have such a fantastic core business that anything acquired is dilutive. The core Windows and Office Franchise continues to generate well over $1 billion in free cash flow every month. Have over $30 billion on the cash sheet waiting to be deployed. Trades at it free cash flow yield of close to 8%.
computer software/processing
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0 comments
Have such a fantastic core business that anything acquired is dilutive. The core Windows and Office Franchise continues to generate well over $1 billion in free cash flow every month. Have over $30 billion on the cash sheet waiting to be deployed. Trades at it free cash flow yield of close to 8%.
computer software/processing
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$27.840
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Apple(AAPL-Q) 

August 22, 2008

High-quality company. Good products giving them a good competitive position. FMV is only 10% higher than the current stock price. Would consider buying a little lower down.
electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
High-quality company. Good products giving them a good competitive position. FMV is only 10% higher than the current stock price. Would consider buying a little lower down.
electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$176.790
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Not a stock for investors. Strictly for gamblers. In a position of duress at the moment. Thin slice of equity sitting on a very large trading book. This is endemic across the entire investment bank sector.
investment companies/funds
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0 comments
Not a stock for investors. Strictly for gamblers. In a position of duress at the moment. Thin slice of equity sitting on a very large trading book. This is endemic across the entire investment bank sector.
investment companies/funds
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$14.410
Owned Owned
No

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DON'T BUY
Visa Inc.(V-N) 

August 22, 2008

A top-shelf company. A financial stock that takes no credit risk and is benefiting from this shift of going from cash to plastic. The organic growth is very robust. Strong competitive position. Valuation is not quite as interesting as it is only slightly undervalued.
other services
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
A top-shelf company. A financial stock that takes no credit risk and is benefiting from this shift of going from cash to plastic. The organic growth is very robust. Strong competitive position. Valuation is not quite as interesting as it is only slightly undervalued.
other services
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$74.090
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Very interesting natural gas company focused in Wyoming. Has the highest return on investment capital and highest organic growth rate in their sector.
oil/gas
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Very interesting natural gas company focused in Wyoming. Has the highest return on investment capital and highest organic growth rate in their sector.
oil/gas
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$65.650
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
General Electric(GE-N) 

August 22, 2008

Fair value estimate is $40. High quality, relatively low risk.
electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Fair value estimate is $40. High quality, relatively low risk.
electrical/electronic
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$29.120
Owned Owned
No

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BUY
Pfizer Inc(PFE-N) 

August 22, 2008

Worth considering at this price. Very cheap. Double-digit free cash flow yield and very attractive dividend yield. Lipitor will be coming off patent and pipeline of new drugs is relatively thin. Will be lucky to have 0% growth over the next 5 years but over the very long term they will get the pipeline filled.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Worth considering at this price. Very cheap. Double-digit free cash flow yield and very attractive dividend yield. Lipitor will be coming off patent and pipeline of new drugs is relatively thin. Will be lucky to have 0% growth over the next 5 years but over the very long term they will get the pipeline filled.
biotechnology/pharmaceutical
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$19.750
Owned Owned
Yes

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HOLD
Costco Wholesale(COST-Q) 

August 22, 2008

Fantastically positioned. Perhaps the best of the warehouse stores in the US. Performing quite well.
department stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Fantastically positioned. Perhaps the best of the warehouse stores in the US. Performing quite well.
department stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$67.430
Owned Owned
No

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TOP PICK
Cemex SA(CX-N) 

August 22, 2008

Incredibly cheap. On track to generate roughly $3 billion in free cash flow this year. That equates to nearly 20% of the current stock price. Strong competitive position.
cement/concrete
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Incredibly cheap. On track to generate roughly $3 billion in free cash flow this year. That equates to nearly 20% of the current stock price. Strong competitive position.
cement/concrete
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$20.620
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
eBay Inc(EBAY-Q) 

August 22, 2008

Things have been slowing down but they are switching up their fee structure. Very inexpensive. Roughly $4 a share in cash and no debt. Trading at a free cash yield of 6%. Growing at near 20% year-over-year.
specialty stores
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0 comments
Things have been slowing down but they are switching up their fee structure. Very inexpensive. Roughly $4 a share in cash and no debt. Trading at a free cash yield of 6%. Growing at near 20% year-over-year.
specialty stores
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$25.030
Owned Owned
Yes

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TOP PICK
Lowes Companies Inc.(LOW-N) 

August 22, 2008

Negative same-store sales. Just reported earnings and year-over-year they are off only a couple of pennies. Will be earning roughly $1.50 a share this year.
misc industrial products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Negative same-store sales. Just reported earnings and year-over-year they are off only a couple of pennies. Will be earning roughly $1.50 a share this year.
misc industrial products
0 0 0 0 0
0 comments
Paul Larson

Equity str, MorningStar Inc....

Price Price
$24.860
Owned Owned
Yes

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