Alex RuusChord Energy CorpCHRDHOLDNov 15, 2024

At 3% of the S&P, no one in the US cared about energy. The world's changed post-Iran. They'll have to care now. He can envision a scenario where we head into a global recession, and the only sector that works is energy.

All the large caps are fairly valued, so people will have to go down-cap. Screens very well on spreadsheet math. Roughly 10 years of high-quality drilling inventory left. Perhaps 50% upside at $80 oil.

Prefers other names. If you hold (and tax implications aside), consider letting it run.

Pure-play Bakkan producer with ~10 years of stay-flat inventory (for a US shale company, that's actually quite good). Share price has taken a 50% haircut, with some of it due to oil price. 

The bigger macro is that energy is in Canada's DNA, while energy is only 3% of the S&P 500. Energy isn't big enough for most US investors to care; they're out chasing technology and bitcoin and such. So there isn't the same flow of funds to lift mid-cap names.

Screens well on spreadsheet math, but he can't see any catalyst to push the stock up. In a post-shale world, Canada will receive a lot of fund flows. He'd look at Canadian energy such as ATH.

Poor performer. Poster child of a US mid-cap oil company, when all anyone wants to buy is bitcoin or NVDA. Actively buying back stock. Operationally doing just fine. Better-than-average inventory depth. Trades at 3.3x cashflow, very cheap.

No one cares about energy on the S&P. Can't see how this name could outperform. Consider using it for tax-loss selling. See his Top Picks for a place to put the proceeds.

Unlike the TSX, oil comprises a small part of the US market, about 4%. So, nobody cares about a smaller-cap oil company. Rather, these stocks need a sentiment shift. The company itself is fine with over 10 years of stay-flat inventory. Drilling results are decent. Pays a 5.4% dividend yield. Sell this and buy WCP, which pays a higher dividend and gives you Canadian tax efficiency.

Welcome to the U.S. Has no buyers. Also, Enerplus shareholders (in the merger) are getting CHRD stock and have been selling it. CHRD has 10 years of stay-flat inventory, not decades in the Oil Sands, though is good for a US shale company. Trades at 14% free cash flow yield and returning 75% to shareholders. Deep value, but you need US investors to care in this name (Canadian ones have opportunities in Canada). CHRD is stuck. No catalyst, except higher oil prices which he doesn't expect until next year.

Chord Energy's 2025 free cash flow, with only about a fifth of its daily oil production hedged against WTI volatility, could be relatively exposed to likely declines in crude benchmarks this year. Still, its total production could climb 17% to 271 MBoepd, using the midpoint of guidance, which may outpace the 14% increase in its E&P and other capital spending, which should aid FCF. While these increases should be driven by the first full year of the Enerplus acquisition, a growth in synergies from the deal could contribute to this relatively lower rise in capex. With its potential, its dividend and its valuation, we would be OK holding still. 
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Has it in his main fund and his income fund. Pure-play Bakken producer. Off the radar of US institutions, as it's just too small for that market. Vast majority of free cashflow will come to shareholders as buybacks, and over time this will drive a re-rating. An opportunity for very good upside.

Owns shares in energy income fund. Strong dividend yield that is sustainable. Excellent inventory, with good shale exposure. Premium pricing in North Dakota. Better names for capital appreciation, but a quality name. Would recommend for income investors. 

Likes it, owns a little. Trades at 3.5x cashflow, big enough scale. Good capital appreciation prospects.

He's been buying, now a full position of 4%. Returning 75% of free cashflow via buybacks. Report by Raymond James says it has the deepest inventory in the area of any producer. Ability to drive rerating over time. Target $243, 37% upside modestly, probably closer to 50% upside.

They recently bought Enerplus and remains a pure play on North Dakota. His favourite US name, though prefers Canadian oil. A good $14 free cash flow yield, but there are better opportunities.

ERF is being bought by a North Dakota producer, Chord Energy Management. He's bullish oil. Using an $80 per barrel baseline, CHRD next year (after they absorb Enerplus) should trade at 3.4x cash flow and 14% free cash flow yield (vs. most names at 7-8%). At a 5x multiple next year, CHRD would trade at $253 price target or 42% upside.

Recently re-established a small position, about 3%. Paying 75% of free cashflow to shareholders, debt free, significant discount to US peers. Big enough to attract institutional investors once the sentiment tide turns to energy. 50% upside at $80 oil. 

Pure play USA Bakken company. Good US option. Returning 75% of cash flow to investors. Strong management team. Better opportunities in Canada. Expecting 50% upside at $80 oil.