Opinions by Benj Gallander | StockChase
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Benj Gallander

President

ON STOCKCHASE SINCE Apr 2002

Contra the Heard Investment Letter


Opinions by Benj Gallander


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2017-11-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Market. It is fascinating what has gone on. If someone had said at the beginning of the year that the market was going to do what it has done, most people would have said that it was unrealistic. The American market in particular, but now the Canadian market too has caught fire. It’s fascinating to watch, but it makes it much harder for him as a contrarian, to find value stocks he can buy during this tax loss season. Hopefully he can find some that he can cherry pick towards the end of the year.

Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-11-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Screening Criteria? He likes stocks that have been in business more than 10 years, that should be trading at $10 or less, with little or no debt on the balance sheet. Also, the stock has to be down 33% in the past year. He likes trading towards the low end of a 10-year range. Wants at least a 100% upside, often 200%, 300%, 400%, based on what the stock price has been in the past. Likes to know that management can do what they say they are going to do. Insider buying is something else he likes. If the sector is out of play, that is worth one of his points.

Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-11-24

N/A
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert 

Oil and gas? He doesn’t think this is very contrarian now. A lot of companies haven’t come back, and some have come back a fair distance. You can look at a number of companies that have been so-called survivors. Because they’ve survived this long, that increases the potential of them surviving into the future. There are still some that will go under, but thinks they have seen the worst of it. Definitely a sector worth looking at.

Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $0.020
Owned: _N/A

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2017-11-24

PAST TOP PICK
Aegon N.V. (AEG-N)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/16. Up 15%.) A huge Dutch insurer and operates in many countries. Had huge problems during the recession and had to be bailed out by the Dutch government. They seem to be getting their house in order. They could be on the comeback trail. They’ve been doing well over the past year. It wouldn’t surprise him if this ultimately tripled.

Financial Services
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $6.080
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

PAST TOP PICK
BlackBerry (BB-T)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/16. Up 44%.) He likes what John Chen is doing. He basically hits targets. When looking to turn around a company this big, it takes a huge amount of time. In this case, it was more difficult, because they had to get out of one space and more into another. One of the beauties of this company is that as they turn, the analysts are on it regularly, so more people will jump into it.

electrical/electronic
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $13.620
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
Brick Brewing Company Ltd. (BRB-T)

Has been very good to him. He bought it at around $.25 several years ago, when they were potentially on the verge of bankruptcy. Brought in a new CEO who had been at another brewery that got taken over. Sold out a few months ago at $3.99. It is still over $3, so it has zero interest for him.

breweries/beverages
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $3.250
Owned: No

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
Bellatrix Exploration Ltd. (BXE-T)

He would suggest looking at the goodwill on the balance sheet. If they have to write it down a long way, that would really hurt the BV. They have a tremendous amount of debt, so they are not out of the woods. Has huge upside potential. Oil and gas has come back in favour to some degree. Worth a look, but expects there will be more tax loss selling and it could go down a lot further.

oil/gas
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $2.480
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
CRH Medical Corp. (CRH-T)

Has been badly beaten up. In 2014, revenues were about $11 million, and are now looking at about $100 million. BV is around $.85, so it is still trading at around 3X BV. The important thing is that insiders have been selling like crazy. When this happens, that is not a good sign. Not a contrarian stock to his way of thinking.

biotechnology/pharmaceutical
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $2.520
Owned: No

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
Eldorado Gold (ELD-T)

When it appeared they might have come to an agreement with the Greek government a couple of months ago, he felt it was the 3rd inning. However, they’ve taken a step back. It’s an ongoing saga. They’ve put about $1 million into the mine and have employed a lot of workers. It’s on his Watch List, but he’s not willing to dive into it.

precious metals
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $1.570
Owned: No

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
Extendicare Inc (EXE-T)

He bought this 4 years ago at $7.01 and it is now $9.44. One reason he bought it was for the dividend as it was over 7%. Thinks this could go to $15. It’s a leader in the field and a wonderful demographic play. They’ve been growing by acquiring and organically.

other services
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $9.440
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

TOP PICK
First US Bancshares Inc (FUSB-Q)

A small bank in Alabama. Has 15 outlets and has done very well. Not huge revenues, but they are decent and fairly stable. Thinks this has tremendous upside. Their capitalization ratios are amazing. It’s rare to see a bank that good. He thinks it can double from here. Dividend yield of 0.7%.

Financial Services
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $11.990
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

COMMENT
General Electric (GE-N)

Has a new CEO, and all of a sudden people are selling like crazy. The new CEO bought about $1 million worth of shares, which is a good sign. They are looking to sell off a lot of assets. Has a big debt load, so it would be good to pay it down. There are going to be huge changes over the next few years. A great company with some great components, but there are going to be some major write-downs coming, and that always discourages investors. The dividend just got slashed in half.

electrical/electronic
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $18.190
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

TOP PICK
GMP Capital Trust Inc (GMP-T)

This is having a lot of trouble. Their space got hit, and a lot of companies have gone under. They do a lot of financing, and also have a good piece of Richardson Securities, which is doing very well in wealth management. The most recent quarterly earnings were down about 21%. They lost about $2.8 million. The commodity fields, which is their cache, has not been doing well, but has been coming back. Just did a crypto currency deal. He’d love to see them do some marijuana plays. This could move up quite a distance from where its at.

investment companies/funds
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $2.240
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

PAST TOP PICK
Innodata Isogen Inc. (INOD-Q)

(A Top Pick Dec 22/16. Down 50%.) This deals with digitalization, things like e-books. On the conference calls, they are always super optimistic. In the last 2 conference calls, they weren’t. Sales have flatlined and they’ve been losing money. Expects that over the next 5 weeks there will be tax loss selling on this. He is happy to hold it, but it probably won’t pay off for quite a while.

Business Services
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $1.080
Owned: Yes

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2017-11-24

DON'T BUY
National Bank of Greece SA (NBG-N (Unlisted)

The number of shares is absolutely insane. The share count has grown dramatically. They’ve been in survival mode for quite a while, but thinks they will survive. It wouldn’t surprise him if they did a share consolidation. Share consolidations are virtually always bad for stocks. A speculative play, but it could be good. Doesn’t think you will lose all your money. He doesn’t see putting dollars on it at this time.

banks
Benj Gallander

President, Contra the Heard Investment Letter

Price: $0.161
Owned: No

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