Bitcoin (BTCUSD) (CRYPTO:BTC)

The momentum is gone now, but it has before. Bitcoin is very volatile, lacking fundamentals, so it trades purely on emotion.

It's had such a strong rally. By nature, this is volatile, so the sell-off is the price of admission.

It trades like a future contract, and momentum is the most significant indicator. It's volatile.

His only speculative holding. Fidelity, Blackrock and other funds companies are rushing to market their crypto instruments, so he's still buying. Would not sell if it slid 15%, but would hold.

He pared some yesterday, as it had grown to a 6% position, making him very uncomfortable. Now he's at 2.5%. Didn't sell all, because seasonality starts early February, so you could take a small position now.  Will be volatile, susceptible to 5-10% swings. Has long-term applications.

Doesn't see a use case for Bitcoin, but expects this to keep rising based on supply and demand. It's up 11% this week.

Because of the ETFs, this will become scarce and so will go higher.

CRYPTO UPDATE

The triangle we spotted on Bitcoin was very effective and broke its resistance with a nice candlestick that made it take almost 6% in one day.

The take profit target is still located at $56,000, close to an important supply area (many sell orders pending in the order book). The price is currently operating a pull back on the resistance zone it broke recently, this is perfectly normal and occurs in about 60% of cases (Chartist analysis, by Francois Barron), this could also be a very good entry for investors who missed the low of the triangle and its breakout (we can also wait for the breakout of the last high.

Investors who took position at the low or middle of the triangle currently have a nice profit (+20-10% at the time of writing, +30-20% at the high), and can expect much more, if the pattern materializes until the end. The most sensitive (and they are right) to money management have already moved their stop loss beyond their entry point, and can no longer, regardless of future developments, lose money.

It is interesting to note the high correlation between Bitcoin and other cryptos. Indeed, since the break of the triangle on Bitcoin, the main other cryptos have all experienced interesting gains this week, including Ethereum (which also broke a triangle from above), and Solana (+60% for a week). The case of Solana is very interesting because we had two chartist figures, a triangle and a triple bottom that led to this rise of 60% in 1 week and 80% since March 11.

Although probabilistic, chartist analysis remains an extremely powerful tool to evolve with more confidence in the chaotic financial markets, no matter what the detractors say, provided of course to retain this elementary but crucial rule that is missing to 90% of investors, and allowing to extend its life (in the financial markets) on the long term: to have a perfect control of its money management.

CRYPTO UPDATE

Last time we saw that BTC was oscillating within an ascending triangle. The pattern has been effective and the price has indeed touched the $45,000 mark today, which is the resistance of the triangle and an area that many economic players are positioned on.

2 scenarios seem to be taking shape:

1. The price breaks the supply zone ($45,000-$46,000) and continues its ascent to the take-profit zone that we have defined at $56,000. Nevertheless, the price has reached the triangle resistance faster than expected and if there is a breakout in the next few days it would be a bit early (generally, a triangle has a better probability of success if the breakout occurs at 2/3 of the triangle length)
2. The price bounces off the resistance and continues its advance within the chartist pattern, hitting the $40,000 area before making its final ascent.

Traders who entered on the bounce on the triangle support are in profit and can choose to close their position now, or wait for the triangle to break and strengthen their position if it does. They can also choose to raise their stop loss to break even if they don't want to take any risk in case the price bounces back as seen in point 2. For the others, it would be quite risky to go long now, as long as the supply zone has not been clearly broken. Finally, the most reckless traders (who like to play against the trend while having a good command of money management and derivatives allowing to short) can try to rebound on the supply zone with a stop loss at $46200 and a take profit at $40,000 for a reward/risk ratio of about 3/1.

BITCOIN MINING, A STEP TOWARDS ENERGY INDEPENDENCE

In the U.S., more and more political actors are promoting the creation of a clear regulatory framework for cryptocurrencies. Many of them also argue that cryptocurrency mining would be an opportunity for the development of the energy sector in the US.

Many political leaders have understood, far from the usual clichés, the huge potential that cryptocurrency mining represents. For example, the city of North Vancouver, Canada, will be the world's first Bitcoin-powered city by the end of 2022, with an innovative low-carbon heating solution. In the United States, Congressman Pete Sessions says the mining farm industry could help America achieve energy independence.

It's true, in fact, that mining already prevents the waste of excess energy from already existing structures, but beyond that, the revenue from crypto mining provides funding for future energy facilities.

Since January 18, 2022, Bitcoin has been oscillating within a clearly visible ascending triangle in daily units. According to empirical statistics gathered over time, traders have learned to view this chartist pattern as one with a higher probability of leading to an upward movement.

Currently, the price is sitting at the $41,100 mark, which corresponds to the support line of the triangle (analysis done on the Binance Futures BTCUSDT chart). By taking the distance between the highest and lowest points of the triangle, and using this distance as a profit target, we get a profit zone of around $56,300.

An aggressive trader can therefore place a buy with a take profit at $56,300, and a stop loss below the support line at $36,700. The more cautious trader can monitor the triangle daily, waiting for the resistance breakout at $45,000 before taking a position. Keeping in mind that charting is not an exact science (and this is the main reason to have an extremely strict money management) and that the markets are even more uncertain in this period with the Russian-Ukrainian conflict that causes daily repercussions on all markets.

THE HIDDEN ACCUMULATION

After declaring in 2017 that Bitcoin was most likely headed straight for $0, and currently many bankers still criticize the volatility of Bitcoin and crypto-currencies, there is much less vehemence behind the scenes. It is known, for example, that as of June 2021, Morgan Stanley Bank has "officially" begun accumulating Bitcoins.

Moreover, a recent analysis by MacroScope, a specialist in institutional trades, shows that Morgan Stanley has greatly increased, in many of its institutional funds, the number of its BTC holdings (by buying shares of Grayscale BTC). Most of these are relatively large double-digit increases (e.g. +18% for Morgan's Growth Portfolio). Thus demonstrating the appetite and desire of the American bank for this asset, and it is certainly not the only crypto it accumulates.

According to the analysis, we can see that with the frequency and volume of these purchases, the bank could become the main whale (known) of Bitcoin, and very quickly. Indeed, the CPOAX would have recently bought about $71M in BTC (or more than 1600 BTC). We can therefore understand why JP Morgan Bank, "thanks to the influx of liquidity", is very bullish and sees a BTC of $150,000 in the long term