iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond (TLT-Q) Stock Predictions - Stockchase
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iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond (TLT-Q)

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iShares Barclays 20+ Yr T...

TLT-Q

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iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond (TLT-Q) SAVE Apr, 24, 2019, 3:56 pm

123.56 0.99 (0.8%)

What the experts are saying about TLT-Q



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Signal Opinion Expert
PAST TOP PICK
(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.
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(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.
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Mike Philbrick

President, ReSolve Asset Manage...

Price Price
$122.210
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.
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What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.
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Mike Philbrick

President, ReSolve Asset Manage...

Price Price
$122.210
Owned Owned
Unknown

BUY on WEAKNESS
US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.
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US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.
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Larry Berman CF

Chief Inve, ETF Capital Manageme...

Price Price
$121.677
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.
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He think interest rates will be cut this year and would buy $130 calls on TLT. He doesn't see a rate cut, but if you do then buy the calls. These are portfolio bonds with a 20-year term. The duration is 17 on this ETF, so a 1% drop in rates means should translate into a 17% hike in the ETF's value. Yes, do it.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$122.290
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK
Tracks US bonds, and it's volatile. This does well when equities do poorly, just like last fall, or in 2008 when it returned nearly 64%. This offsets portfolio loss.
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Tracks US bonds, and it's volatile. This does well when equities do poorly, just like last fall, or in 2008 when it returned nearly 64%. This offsets portfolio loss.
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Mike Philbrick

President, ReSolve Asset Manage...

Price Price
$121.020
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
Sideways over the last couple of years. Not going anywhere but a good trade. Good to buy at around $115ish
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Sideways over the last couple of years. Not going anywhere but a good trade. Good to buy at around $115ish
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Keith Richards

Portfolio , ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

Price Price
$120.800
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK
Long-dated U.S. treasuries in this ETF. It'll rise in price as yields drop and you'll benefit from the CAD weakening against the USD, a double whammy for Canadian investors.
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Long-dated U.S. treasuries in this ETF. It'll rise in price as yields drop and you'll benefit from the CAD weakening against the USD, a double whammy for Canadian investors.
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Jason Del Vicar

Portfolio , HollisWealth...

Price Price
$0.000
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT
What ETF will hold capital over the next 12 months to buy for a RRSP account with USD? A USD GIC or a money market funder if you don't want to lose any money. At best, the market will offer single-digit returns. Look at the Spiders (ETFs), the grandddaddy of them all, or TLT. Do a 50/50 split.
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What ETF will hold capital over the next 12 months to buy for a RRSP account with USD? A USD GIC or a money market funder if you don't want to lose any money. At best, the market will offer single-digit returns. Look at the Spiders (ETFs), the grandddaddy of them all, or TLT. Do a 50/50 split.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$119.170
Owned Owned
Unknown

TOP PICK
A strictly defensive buy to park money. Write an option out to June, buying at $118.50 and a $3.75 call and netting $114.75. Excluding dividend, you get a 3.27% return if TLT stays where it is. Downside protection at $114.75. He doubts interest rates will go up much in the coming 12 months.
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A strictly defensive buy to park money. Write an option out to June, buying at $118.50 and a $3.75 call and netting $114.75. Excluding dividend, you get a 3.27% return if TLT stays where it is. Downside protection at $114.75. He doubts interest rates will go up much in the coming 12 months.
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$119.170
Owned Owned
Yes

DON'T BUY

It's a great summer play and is now weakening. For the past year it's been consolidating. It could find support, but seasonablity works against it--bonds do well until October, then get out. Why? As on October, risk-on trade takes hold. With rising US rates and risk-on trade, he's no confident that TLT will get a big pop. He's not excited about this.

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It's a great summer play and is now weakening. For the past year it's been consolidating. It could find support, but seasonablity works against it--bonds do well until October, then get out. Why? As on October, risk-on trade takes hold. With rising US rates and risk-on trade, he's no confident that TLT will get a big pop. He's not excited about this.

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Keith Richards

Portfolio , ValueTrend Wealth Ma...

Price Price
$117.500
Owned Owned
Unknown

PAST TOP PICK

(A Top Pick July 10/17 Up 0.4%)   He might have been a little late on acquiring this, he thinks.   In 2008, when markets dropped over 40%, this went up 50%.  This is the best hedge for the market out there.  He does not own it now, instead he owns the 10 year bond equivalent.  He expects he will get back into this in the next 12 months. 

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(A Top Pick July 10/17 Up 0.4%)   He might have been a little late on acquiring this, he thinks.   In 2008, when markets dropped over 40%, this went up 50%.  This is the best hedge for the market out there.  He does not own it now, instead he owns the 10 year bond equivalent.  He expects he will get back into this in the next 12 months. 

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Jason Del Vicar

Portfolio , HollisWealth...

Price Price
$119.910
Owned Owned
No

PAST TOP PICK

(Past Top Pick on June 15, 2017, Up 6%) He'd assumed interest rates would rise. They didn't. Rates rise and the value of TLT goes down. He sold a $126 call and he wanted it to close below that. It closed at $128 instead. He made 6% on the trade because he got more premium when he sold the option than when he would've had to buy it back on the last day of trading (last June).

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(Past Top Pick on June 15, 2017, Up 6%) He'd assumed interest rates would rise. They didn't. Rates rise and the value of TLT goes down. He sold a $126 call and he wanted it to close below that. It closed at $128 instead. He made 6% on the trade because he got more premium when he sold the option than when he would've had to buy it back on the last day of trading (last June).

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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$118.600
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK

All 3 of his top picks have an element of defensiveness to them. This is the Long Bond in the US and his favourite way to hedge against equity risks. This one is negatively correlated with equity markets. Because it is denominated in US$, Canadian investors have 2 opportunities to make money. 1.) If we see the markets tumble, he expects long dated treasuries to do well because it probably means rates are coming down and there is a flood to safety. 2.) The US$ being the world’s reserve currency, whenever there is uncertainty in the markets, people will flood to the US$ and US treasuries.

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All 3 of his top picks have an element of defensiveness to them. This is the Long Bond in the US and his favourite way to hedge against equity risks. This one is negatively correlated with equity markets. Because it is denominated in US$, Canadian investors have 2 opportunities to make money. 1.) If we see the markets tumble, he expects long dated treasuries to do well because it probably means rates are coming down and there is a flood to safety. 2.) The US$ being the world’s reserve currency, whenever there is uncertainty in the markets, people will flood to the US$ and US treasuries.

E.T.F.'s
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Jason Del Vicar

Portfolio , HollisWealth...

Price Price
$122.900
Owned Owned
Yes

TOP PICK

*Bear Call Spread* Thinks interest rates are going higher. If so, bond prices are going lower. This is the most liquid bond ETF in the US, and has very liquid options. He suggests the sale of December $126 Calls and Buying a December $133 Call. If the stock closes below $126 in December, both options will expire and you keep the net credit of about $2 a share.

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*Bear Call Spread* Thinks interest rates are going higher. If so, bond prices are going lower. This is the most liquid bond ETF in the US, and has very liquid options. He suggests the sale of December $126 Calls and Buying a December $133 Call. If the stock closes below $126 in December, both options will expire and you keep the net credit of about $2 a share.

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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$126.100
Owned Owned
Yes

COMMENT

There is a lot of volatility on these Puts, so you need to be aware of that, so they are not cheap. His inclination would be to do a Bear Call spread. This has a duration of about 14 or 15 right now, and if you get a 1% rise in rates, you will get a 15% drop in value of this, which would be good for the Puts. You need to recognize that the Puts are expensive for the amount of volatility that is inherent long-term on this product. If you are going to take a shot on it, he would Buy on the money, and probably 2 months out at best, mainly because they are expensive. Another way to do it would be to Sell a Call, and Buying a Call at a higher strike, just so you got limited risk. If the bonds go down or stay where they are, you get to keep the credit.

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There is a lot of volatility on these Puts, so you need to be aware of that, so they are not cheap. His inclination would be to do a Bear Call spread. This has a duration of about 14 or 15 right now, and if you get a 1% rise in rates, you will get a 15% drop in value of this, which would be good for the Puts. You need to recognize that the Puts are expensive for the amount of volatility that is inherent long-term on this product. If you are going to take a shot on it, he would Buy on the money, and probably 2 months out at best, mainly because they are expensive. Another way to do it would be to Sell a Call, and Buying a Call at a higher strike, just so you got limited risk. If the bonds go down or stay where they are, you get to keep the credit.

E.T.F.'s
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Richard Croft

President, R.N. Croft Financial...

Price Price
$117.810
Owned Owned
Unknown

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