iShares Barclays 20+ Yr Treas Bond
TLT-Q
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Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
October 24, 2019
Bond ETFs have come off a bit, as interest rates have started to move up. For every portfolio, you want some exposure to bonds as a buffer in a correction. He owns IEF, lesser duration bonds. Don't avoid fixed income. If equity markets take a turn for the worse, at least your bond portfolio will do well.
Bond ETFs have come off a bit, as interest rates have started to move up. For every portfolio, you want some exposure to bonds as a buffer in a correction. He owns IEF, lesser duration bonds. Don't avoid fixed income. If equity markets take a turn for the worse, at least your bond portfolio will do well.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
October 21, 2019
It is long US treasuries. It is one of the best asset classes to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn. He believes we go into an economic recession in 2021.
It is long US treasuries. It is one of the best asset classes to protect your portfolio during an economic downturn. He believes we go into an economic recession in 2021.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$138.530
Yes
BUY
BUY
October 1, 2019
TLT is important to play the US 10-year yield, which has made a double-bottom in the past 5 years. Then, the 10-year recently pulled back and made a higher low. If that low holds, then we'll see a series of higher lows, which will lead to the sell of a generation of that US 10-year. Now, we're seeing a big, long-term peak put into place. An uptrend is developing.
TLT is important to play the US 10-year yield, which has made a double-bottom in the past 5 years. Then, the 10-year recently pulled back and made a higher low. If that low holds, then we'll see a series of higher lows, which will lead to the sell of a generation of that US 10-year. Now, we're seeing a big, long-term peak put into place. An uptrend is developing.
E.T.F.'s
PARTIAL SELL
PARTIAL SELL
September 30, 2019
It's had a fantastic year from falling interest rates. Take profits or, if you don't own it already, look elsewhere.
It's had a fantastic year from falling interest rates. Take profits or, if you don't own it already, look elsewhere.
E.T.F.'s
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
September 27, 2019
Wouldn't touch it because it's short. It's betting that the 20 year price bond will go down. It looks like everybody is piling into the long end of bonds. You might lose your short.
Wouldn't touch it because it's short. It's betting that the 20 year price bond will go down. It looks like everybody is piling into the long end of bonds. You might lose your short.
E.T.F.'s
SELL
SELL
September 26, 2019
US Bond ETF. It has been good to him as a firm. The world has gone to these recessionary hiding places and then gone back to thinking we are in recovery and TLT-Q has traded perfectly with that. He thinks it is incredibly over valued right now. Run for the hills from this one.
US Bond ETF. It has been good to him as a firm. The world has gone to these recessionary hiding places and then gone back to thinking we are in recovery and TLT-Q has traded perfectly with that. He thinks it is incredibly over valued right now. Run for the hills from this one.
E.T.F.'s
TOP PICK
TOP PICK
September 23, 2019
Look what the 30-year bond did in 2008. In the next recession the 30-year will do very well. Also, the Canadian dollar will weaken in the next recession, so you get a double-whammy with rates going down.
Look what the 30-year bond did in 2008. In the next recession the 30-year will do very well. Also, the Canadian dollar will weaken in the next recession, so you get a double-whammy with rates going down.
E.T.F.'s
WATCH
WATCH
August 29, 2019
Gone kind of ballistic. It's overbought, so it could pull back. If we have any lift of the fear, then TLT may not be such a good place.
Gone kind of ballistic. It's overbought, so it could pull back. If we have any lift of the fear, then TLT may not be such a good place.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 23, 2019
Tracks treasury yields. It popped up with falling interest rates. Seeing more money going to the long-end of the yield curve. The second the interest rate starts going up, this can go down 15-20%. Would be cautious about parking money there. A 5 year bond fund or GIC might be better to park money there.
Tracks treasury yields. It popped up with falling interest rates. Seeing more money going to the long-end of the yield curve. The second the interest rate starts going up, this can go down 15-20%. Would be cautious about parking money there. A 5 year bond fund or GIC might be better to park money there.
E.T.F.'s
HOLD
HOLD
August 1, 2019
In 2008, it returned over 60% to Canadian investors. When there's a recession, and growth retracts, people want their capital returned. So, long-duration assets, like 20-year bonds, go up a lot. Don't sell any of this. Most people are underbalanced in bonds, because they get complacent in equities.
In 2008, it returned over 60% to Canadian investors. When there's a recession, and growth retracts, people want their capital returned. So, long-duration assets, like 20-year bonds, go up a lot. Don't sell any of this. Most people are underbalanced in bonds, because they get complacent in equities.
E.T.F.'s
BUY
BUY
July 29, 2019
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$131.510
Unknown
COMMENT
COMMENT
May 9, 2019
To play potential interest rate volatility. He trades this often. To buy a call on a put, you have to buy a premium. He thinks interest rates will stay flat in the coming 12 months.
To play potential interest rate volatility. He trades this often. To buy a call on a put, you have to buy a premium. He thinks interest rates will stay flat in the coming 12 months.
E.T.F.'s
PAST TOP PICK
PAST TOP PICK
April 16, 2019
(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.
(A Top Pick Jan 29/19, Up 2%) Volatility was very low. It enjoyed a 63% return in 2018 because of the strength of the USD but mostly because of US treasuries. We had a growth shock in 2018. This actually did well in the December correction. Canadian portfolios should hold US bonds.
E.T.F.'s
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 16, 2019
What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.
What ETF shorts the market? Don't short and avoid leveraged ETFs, but if you have to, then look at HIU-T or HIX-T. When you short, you're fighting the dividend and the natural drift upward of equities. Don't short. Instead, look at the TLT-T (up 63% in 2008) or HTB-T (up 29% in 2008); you get the outsized returns from owning a US-denominated bond and get paid to wait.
E.T.F.'s
BUY WEAKNESS
BUY WEAKNESS
March 18, 2019
US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.
US Long Bonds. TLT-Q is the benchmark for long bonds. He just bought some in all his portfolios. Trade the range. Buy on dips. This will be the best protection in the next global economic downtown. These bonds are always the flight to safety.
E.T.F.'s
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTA
Chief Investment Officer, Partner, ETF Capital Management Inc.
$121.677
Yes
Comments
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