BMO Long Federal Bond Index (ZFL-T)

When you buy any bond fund or ETF, you have persistent rate risk. Very different from buying a bond that matures. If you want to take advantage of falling yields, you have to own long-term bonds that don't mature for a long, long time. So if interest rates fall, you get the advantage of that.

For a bet on falling interest rates, long bonds are the way to do it. ZFL contains long-term federal government bonds in Canada. In the US, use TLT. Best bang for your buck, but highly volatile and highly risky. Long bonds right now are facing a tremendous wall of supply, and he's not sure they're going to fall that much in price. He's quite cautious on long bonds right now.

Long bonds have not been performing as well. Rate cuts not occurring as quickly as anticipated. Would recommend small position. Strong markets not good for product, but if market crashes - is a good product. 

The largest ETF giving you exposure to purely CAD long bonds. Same theme as the TLT.

Canadian federals, a growing category. Good way to add in alongside cash and take on some duration-risk exposure. Barbells in a bit of rate risk in a capital-efficient way. One of the few asset classes in a portfolio that would zig should the market zag into a recession.

Bonds offer a nice diversification against a recession or slowdown in economic growth. ZFL pays a 3.6% yield, so it offers investors a solid yield while central banks determine their final monetary policy decisions. Largely, we think that we are near the end of the hiking cycle, inflation is coming down, it is near the target rate of 2%, and while the consumer is resilient, a tightened credit market can lead to negative outcomes occurring eventually, and bonds are essentially insurance against this. It's possible that the BoC increases rates two or more times by the end of the year, however, if inflation slows faster than expected, these goal posts may change and thus bond prices can be buoyed. We would be comfortable holding bonds here as insurance, however, we would prefer to wait until Canada's next inflation reading as well as the BoC decision to add to the position.
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