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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary
Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2020
Market Outlook It is important to differentiate the short term and long term outlooks (post-2021). There is demand deferral accounting for about 26 million barrels per day, being associated to the number of COVID cases worldwide. The outlook for oil is positive going forward as we were already expecting global production to be slowing in growth and for US shale production already being mortally wounded with low oil prices. Shut-ins will begin to counteract the volumes increased by Saudi Arabia if new OPEC agreements are not worked out. At these prices, every oil company (outside OPEC) would be bankrupt -- so we know these prices are not sustainable. Companies with good hedging strategies and sound balance sheets will emerge from this. A price of $20 into 2021 could be catastrophic for some small cap producers, due to their outstanding debt.
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Market Outlook It is important to differentiate the short term and long term outlooks (post-2021). There is demand deferral accounting for about 26 million barrels per day, being associated to the number of COVID cases worldwide. The outlook for oil is positive going forward as we were already expecting global production to be slowing in growth and for US shale production already being mortally wounded with low oil prices. Shut-ins will begin to counteract the volumes increased by Saudi Arabia if new OPEC agreements are not worked out. At these prices, every oil company (outside OPEC) would be bankrupt -- so we know these prices are not sustainable. Companies with good hedging strategies and sound balance sheets will emerge from this. A price of $20 into 2021 could be catastrophic for some small cap producers, due to their outstanding debt.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 3, 2020
Insider buying? Insider buying is a critical indicator as to management's belief they will survive in difficult times. The average energy CEO makes about $3.2 million, so their lifestyle would allow them to buy shares. If a CEO is not stepping up now, you should be asking, why not?
Show full opinionHide full opinionInsider buying? Insider buying is a critical indicator as to management's belief they will survive in difficult times. The average energy CEO makes about $3.2 million, so their lifestyle would allow them to buy shares. If a CEO is not stepping up now, you should be asking, why not?
N/A
N/A
April 2, 2020
Educational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEducational Segment. Market. He suggested last week that the rally was more about a rebalance between bonds and stocks on a quarterly basis. That is now clearly what it was. Part of the legislation in the US says that any corporations that are going to need help from the government are going to have a restriction on share buy backs or dividend issuing until the loan is paid off. He showed a chart of expected dividends from the S&P and how three months ago they would go up steadily. Now they will take a dip and then climb back to what they are now in about a decade. His sleep at night portfolio (ZZZD-T) sank with others until about a week ago and then rose and has lost less than his other comparisons YTD.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
EFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
Show full opinionHide full opinionEFTs Selling Holdings. 95% of units bought and sold of an ETF involve one unit holder selling to another. Ultimately when the market maker is accumulating positions and does not want to hold them, they are forced to sell them. Other than this 5% of transactions, there is no impact on the underlying shares.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Buffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. Go to the innovator website to see their videos. You are long the underlying, and then it buys a put and pays for it with a put at a lower strike and then a call at an upper strike. It is done at a zero cost to the ETF. The protection plays out over an entire calendar year. During an aggressive sell-off, you get a little short volatility. At the end of the year, if the market is within the range of buffered support you will not lose any money, but if it is lower like it is now, then you will have a loss. He likes the strategy and he uses them in private portfolios.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBuffered ETFs – It seems they got dragged down with everything else. Go to the innovator website to see their videos. You are long the underlying, and then it buys a put and pays for it with a put at a lower strike and then a call at an upper strike. It is done at a zero cost to the ETF. The protection plays out over an entire calendar year. During an aggressive sell-off, you get a little short volatility. At the end of the year, if the market is within the range of buffered support you will not lose any money, but if it is lower like it is now, then you will have a loss. He likes the strategy and he uses them in private portfolios.
DON'T BUY
DON'T BUY
April 2, 2020
Japanese tech gaming companies. He has not looked through it nor through the sector because it does not appeal to him to invest in longer term. There has been a lot of speculation on companies that benefit from people staying at home more. He can't tell you whether these companies in Japan are better than those here.
Show full opinionHide full opinionJapanese tech gaming companies. He has not looked through it nor through the sector because it does not appeal to him to invest in longer term. There has been a lot of speculation on companies that benefit from people staying at home more. He can't tell you whether these companies in Japan are better than those here.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 2, 2020
Will the gold miners catch up to the gold price? They should but they are equities with risk. The monetization of debt that will be necessary by central banks around the world is a bullish scenario and gold stocks will eventually come. A lot of these mines aren't working today, however. He has positions in the sector.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWill the gold miners catch up to the gold price? They should but they are equities with risk. The monetization of debt that will be necessary by central banks around the world is a bullish scenario and gold stocks will eventually come. A lot of these mines aren't working today, however. He has positions in the sector.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 1, 2020
Market Outlook He thinks there is crisis on three fronts: health, economic, and financial. The government was a little late to get the virus contained, but he is seeing indications that curve is not rising as quickly. From an economic and financial crisis place, the government was quick to respond -- dusting off the 2008 crisis aid book. It will take time to work through the system. For him, he wonders if this is enough? Does the government have anything left? Interest rates are effectively zero and they released the bazooka on financial relief. He is hearing up to 6 million jobs may have been lost this week in the US. People need to be defensive right now. There is going to be trouble in the Canadian oil patch for sure. Risk management is more important than ever -- this includes defensive stocks, bonds and even cash. He is sitting with short term cash as a tactical holding, so they can purchase equities at lower prices.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket Outlook He thinks there is crisis on three fronts: health, economic, and financial. The government was a little late to get the virus contained, but he is seeing indications that curve is not rising as quickly. From an economic and financial crisis place, the government was quick to respond -- dusting off the 2008 crisis aid book. It will take time to work through the system. For him, he wonders if this is enough? Does the government have anything left? Interest rates are effectively zero and they released the bazooka on financial relief. He is hearing up to 6 million jobs may have been lost this week in the US. People need to be defensive right now. There is going to be trouble in the Canadian oil patch for sure. Risk management is more important than ever -- this includes defensive stocks, bonds and even cash. He is sitting with short term cash as a tactical holding, so they can purchase equities at lower prices.
COMMENT
COMMENT
April 1, 2020
Bonds? Bonds are an important part of a portfolio as they have half the volatility of stocks in times of stress. With interest rates effectively at zero it is tougher. Big institutional players have been forced to raise cash, making inventory of bonds available that are investment grade. Yields of 3-5% are available for A or AA rated companies.
Show full opinionHide full opinionBonds? Bonds are an important part of a portfolio as they have half the volatility of stocks in times of stress. With interest rates effectively at zero it is tougher. Big institutional players have been forced to raise cash, making inventory of bonds available that are investment grade. Yields of 3-5% are available for A or AA rated companies.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 31, 2020
He expects an economic recovery, though doesn't know how long this downturn will last. He is 80% invested with 20% in cash. He isn't timing the market, but making returns for clients. He's up 16.5% YTD by making singles, not swinging for the fences. He was up 10% last year, because he had a hedge in place due to concerns over high valuations. He has stuck with that hedge. Late 2019 he started putting some put options, three tranches of Nasdaq puts. That helped him earn this year's return (YTD). The hedging overlay is really important these days.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe expects an economic recovery, though doesn't know how long this downturn will last. He is 80% invested with 20% in cash. He isn't timing the market, but making returns for clients. He's up 16.5% YTD by making singles, not swinging for the fences. He was up 10% last year, because he had a hedge in place due to concerns over high valuations. He has stuck with that hedge. Late 2019 he started putting some put options, three tranches of Nasdaq puts. That helped him earn this year's return (YTD). The hedging overlay is really important these days.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 31, 2020
What is a hedge overlay (mentioned in his opening comment)? He shorts equity indices, using as benchmarks the Nasdaq and Russell futures as well as those around the world. He employs a 75% short equity index overlay atop his stock portfolio, because he's not sure if the market will go up or down. In late-2019, he built a near-100% equity index overlay, because he was very concerned about the market. This overlay protects the downside and reduces portfolio volatility.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWhat is a hedge overlay (mentioned in his opening comment)? He shorts equity indices, using as benchmarks the Nasdaq and Russell futures as well as those around the world. He employs a 75% short equity index overlay atop his stock portfolio, because he's not sure if the market will go up or down. In late-2019, he built a near-100% equity index overlay, because he was very concerned about the market. This overlay protects the downside and reduces portfolio volatility.
N/A
N/A
March 30, 2020
Market. These huge declines in the market are not driven primarily by the CoVid19 conditions. About 20% are related to it and the other 80% is related to US and Europe and has been related to an expected deflationary shock expected before the virus hit. What you have seen is massive movement and liquidity hitting the market. Everyone should look at the US dollar. Even the US stimulus is not enough. We have to wait and see. Today is the first day we are seeing volatility going down. The deflationary shock is over. It has been averted.
Show full opinionHide full opinionMarket. These huge declines in the market are not driven primarily by the CoVid19 conditions. About 20% are related to it and the other 80% is related to US and Europe and has been related to an expected deflationary shock expected before the virus hit. What you have seen is massive movement and liquidity hitting the market. Everyone should look at the US dollar. Even the US stimulus is not enough. We have to wait and see. Today is the first day we are seeing volatility going down. The deflationary shock is over. It has been averted.
WATCH
WATCH
March 30, 2020
West Texas Crude – When to buy. Looking at other oil prices, Wyoming sweet oil is on the low end at -19 cents. There is no real control over these prices. Trump wants the US & Canada to put tariffs on foreign oil. These are strategic assets. If that happens all these stocks will jump.
Show full opinionHide full opinionWest Texas Crude – When to buy. Looking at other oil prices, Wyoming sweet oil is on the low end at -19 cents. There is no real control over these prices. Trump wants the US & Canada to put tariffs on foreign oil. These are strategic assets. If that happens all these stocks will jump.
BUY
BUY
March 30, 2020
Canadian Banks. Going back to the great depression, a lot of Canadian banks didn’t cut their dividend. Some are trading at EBV -3 so he would be a buyer. The hedge fund community is after these guys but they are down enough.
Show full opinionHide full opinionCanadian Banks. Going back to the great depression, a lot of Canadian banks didn’t cut their dividend. Some are trading at EBV -3 so he would be a buyer. The hedge fund community is after these guys but they are down enough.
N/A
N/A
March 30, 2020
[Berman's Call was pre-empted today by the Prime Minister's Update on the COVID-19 situation.]
Show full opinionHide full opinion[Berman's Call was pre-empted today by the Prime Minister's Update on the COVID-19 situation.]
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary) Rating
Ranking : 4 out of 5
Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 36
Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 4
Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 39
Total Signals / Votes : 79
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