Market Outlook China is a huge consumer of commodities -- about 1/3 of all raw materials in the world. He thinks a trade deal between China and the US will eventually be reached. Technically, the advance-decline line for all the major US indices closed at recent highs, suggesting there is still room for things to go higher for the next year. He thinks the semi-conductor space is a leading indicator for the Purchasing Manager Index (PMI). He thinks by next summer the PMI will be increasing based on activity for semi-conductors today, which will lead to continued support in the market. The US Fed taking the foot off the pedal is going to bring support to the US housing market he thinks. This will bring greater consumer confidence.

Interest rates. If there were to be a rate cut, means economy probably slipping into recession. GDP might be 2-2.5% around the world, not great growth. For multinationals, organic growth is not as expected.

Comments on the Fed. They're in a bind, because unemployment is as low as possible, but they're not getting that 4-5% GDP growth that goes with it. And technology has taken care of wage increases, so you're not getting inflation. He thinks they should do nothing for a while. Companies are passing costs along to consumers, and this isn't being talked about yet. And 2/3 of the US economy is made up of consumer purchases.

Pharmaceuticals. Have to look at where the revenues are coming from. If 40% revenues from the US, you might want to avoid it. For example, type 2 diabetes expected to grow in China and India. Demographics are a huge tailwind to medical devices.

ETFs. There is no regard for what the valuation is of the companies – what you are paying for it. ETF selling probably accelerated the selloff in the December.

Market Outlook - Retail sales were surprising but seems reasonable to assume that the reason behind it was the market downturn of December. The problem with the telcos is that they have gone the Huawei road and it is going to cost them if there is a ban on it. Given his academic background on defense policy he agrees when the 5 eyes (US, Canada, Australia, UK and NZ) say that they have real concerns about this company integrating in the system. Canada doesn't have the spine to ban the company by itself. If this happens this can happen in conjunction with Canada's trading partners.

Can you recommend a tax efficient ETF? On thing about ETFs is that if it is an index-based ETF is that the only time that you get a trade is when a stock is replaced on the index. So it is very tax efficient. If you don't need the income then you can look at the total return ETF of Horizon because they don't have distributions as they use swaps. There is a little bit of risk but they never had a problem and he doesn't see that probable.

2019 earnings were supposed to be up 8-10%, but investors' expectations have come down among fears of a global slowdown. This includes the U.S. economy. Yelp's data shows a slowdown in parts of the world (Yelp reported positively today). The U.S. created an unncessary fear in markets by raising interest rates late last year. America can't afford to go into recession, because rates are already low. He thinks the Fed won't do anything for a while. It's dicey now, and the wrong decision could tip the U.S. economy into recession. The Fed may even lower rates. Also, there are so many political issues, namely the US-China trade war. That said, he's bullish about 2019.