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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary
Signal
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COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Positioning, when bear/bull calls are split 50/50. Expect more market volatility, as seen in the last few months. 87% invested in two dozen tech vendors and end users, coupled with a 61% short equity indices overlay (hedge) on the invested stock portfolio. The hedge protects the portfolio if the stock market were to deteriorate. He has laddered NASDAQ put options. That hedge will incrementally grow as the delta on those put options starts to grow.
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Positioning, when bear/bull calls are split 50/50. Expect more market volatility, as seen in the last few months. 87% invested in two dozen tech vendors and end users, coupled with a 61% short equity indices overlay (hedge) on the invested stock portfolio. The hedge protects the portfolio if the stock market were to deteriorate. He has laddered NASDAQ put options. That hedge will incrementally grow as the delta on those put options starts to grow.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Upside missed with hedges in place? It's like an insurance policy, which has a premium attached to it. The beta in the stock market is greater than the beta on the hedge. As the market continues to melt up, he makes money, though perhaps not as much as the NASDAQ. Their benchmark, chosen by the OSC, is 50/50 NASDAQ/Russell, so it gets both sides of the cyclical/growth play. He doesn't make as much, but he's certainly protected on the downside. If the downside is more than 5-10%, the hedge makes money for his fund.
Show full opinionHide full opinionUpside missed with hedges in place? It's like an insurance policy, which has a premium attached to it. The beta in the stock market is greater than the beta on the hedge. As the market continues to melt up, he makes money, though perhaps not as much as the NASDAQ. Their benchmark, chosen by the OSC, is 50/50 NASDAQ/Russell, so it gets both sides of the cyclical/growth play. He doesn't make as much, but he's certainly protected on the downside. If the downside is more than 5-10%, the hedge makes money for his fund.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Tech sub-sectors. Bullish calls: he's overweight on semiconductor foundries, designers, integrated manufacturers both on memory and analog. Also overweight on the cloud stacks from AMZN to MSFT and GOOG, and the platform players that use the various infrastructures, plus SaaS. He's underweight on the gaming side and perhaps neutral on social media.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTech sub-sectors. Bullish calls: he's overweight on semiconductor foundries, designers, integrated manufacturers both on memory and analog. Also overweight on the cloud stacks from AMZN to MSFT and GOOG, and the platform players that use the various infrastructures, plus SaaS. He's underweight on the gaming side and perhaps neutral on social media.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Price targets and selling. When a stock gets within 5-7% of his price target, he starts to take some profits. You have to be disciplined. Have a price at where you're going to enter, but also have a stop on top of that.
Show full opinionHide full opinionPrice targets and selling. When a stock gets within 5-7% of his price target, he starts to take some profits. You have to be disciplined. Have a price at where you're going to enter, but also have a stop on top of that.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Stock weighting. He never holds more than a 6% weighting of a single stock in his portfolio. Once it gets up to 5%, he starts to take some money off the table. There are lots of other stocks on his shopping list to buy with the proceeds.
Show full opinionHide full opinionStock weighting. He never holds more than a 6% weighting of a single stock in his portfolio. Once it gets up to 5%, he starts to take some money off the table. There are lots of other stocks on his shopping list to buy with the proceeds.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. If interest rates rise, utilities, real estate ,communications and tech tend to be weak. Dividend stocks also decline as there are alternatives. However, markets have done well when rates were rising. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. If interest rates rise, utilities, real estate ,communications and tech tend to be weak. Dividend stocks also decline as there are alternatives. However, markets have done well when rates were rising. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 4, 2021
He expects the urban exodus to continue, driven by the spike in cases from the Delta variant. The homebuilding business continues to boom with supply not meeting demand. Remember that interest rates are absurdly low with mortgage broker backed up and struggling to meet demand.
Show full opinionHide full opinionHe expects the urban exodus to continue, driven by the spike in cases from the Delta variant. The homebuilding business continues to boom with supply not meeting demand. Remember that interest rates are absurdly low with mortgage broker backed up and struggling to meet demand.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 3, 2021
It's harder this year to find underfunded sectors, making it hard for ETF investors. Many sector rose rapidly starting last November (along with the market). It's hard to find value, but he is not selling assets. He's holding onto all his U.S. assets. His cash and bonds sits at 40%. He expects the market to rise. Also expects U.S. companies to buyback shares and raise dividends, because they sit on mountains of cash. For example, he bought US oil (not Canadian) last fall. Beyond FAANGs, US stocks are fairly valued. He's fine buying a broad market index of the S&P. Be ready for volality; he's been waiting for a 15% pullback in the past 6 months (which hasn't happened).
Show full opinionHide full opinionIt's harder this year to find underfunded sectors, making it hard for ETF investors. Many sector rose rapidly starting last November (along with the market). It's hard to find value, but he is not selling assets. He's holding onto all his U.S. assets. His cash and bonds sits at 40%. He expects the market to rise. Also expects U.S. companies to buyback shares and raise dividends, because they sit on mountains of cash. For example, he bought US oil (not Canadian) last fall. Beyond FAANGs, US stocks are fairly valued. He's fine buying a broad market index of the S&P. Be ready for volality; he's been waiting for a 15% pullback in the past 6 months (which hasn't happened).
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 3, 2021
Do you use puts to sell or buy stocks and generate income? He doesn't sell puts for income, because a BMO ETFs already do this for you. Why? His clients don't understand puts. Also, people who do sell puts for income leverage heavily which makes their puts very risky. He never leverages.
Show full opinionHide full opinionDo you use puts to sell or buy stocks and generate income? He doesn't sell puts for income, because a BMO ETFs already do this for you. Why? His clients don't understand puts. Also, people who do sell puts for income leverage heavily which makes their puts very risky. He never leverages.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 3, 2021
Tax-efficient US or Canadian ETF that pays no or low dividends? Look at a total-return swap-based ETF, like what Horizons offers. You don't get paid a dividend, but rather it goes into the total return. Last year, CRA was examining such swap ETFs. Look at the CRA site for updates about this.
Show full opinionHide full opinionTax-efficient US or Canadian ETF that pays no or low dividends? Look at a total-return swap-based ETF, like what Horizons offers. You don't get paid a dividend, but rather it goes into the total return. Last year, CRA was examining such swap ETFs. Look at the CRA site for updates about this.
COMMENT
COMMENT
August 2, 2021
No Berman's Call today due to the public holiday and markets being closed.
Show full opinionHide full opinionNo Berman's Call today due to the public holiday and markets being closed.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2021
Oil has recovered almost all the losses from the OPEC fears. OPEC production will use up spare capacity shortly. Demand growth is not faltering. Energy stocks have sold out since the OPEC meetings that has not come back. Key message is that the amount of free cashflow these companies are generating, every day that oil trades above $70 is a good day. Be a bit more patient. Companies will start messaging about what they are going to do with their free cashflow.
Show full opinionHide full opinionOil has recovered almost all the losses from the OPEC fears. OPEC production will use up spare capacity shortly. Demand growth is not faltering. Energy stocks have sold out since the OPEC meetings that has not come back. Key message is that the amount of free cashflow these companies are generating, every day that oil trades above $70 is a good day. Be a bit more patient. Companies will start messaging about what they are going to do with their free cashflow.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2021
We are seeing some large caps such as Shell or Chevron doing some share buy backs with their free cashflow but not many in the sector have started messaging about their plans.
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 30, 2021
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Would look at tech, industrial and consumer discretionary in the near term. We can most likely expect a drift up in the next few months. Interest rate and inflation fears are going away. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. Would look at tech, industrial and consumer discretionary in the near term. We can most likely expect a drift up in the next few months. Interest rate and inflation fears are going away. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free
COMMENT
COMMENT
July 29, 2021
REITs are a hedge against inflation. He thinks inflation will persist and this bodes well for real estate. Rents can capture inflation, and so cashflows go higher. Valuations go higher as replacement costs are higher, so inflation is positive. Unique this time is we're going into an environment where inflation rates persist and rise, but we still have lower interest rates. Combination of the two could be a great tailwind for real estate.
Show full opinionHide full opinionREITs are a hedge against inflation. He thinks inflation will persist and this bodes well for real estate. Rents can capture inflation, and so cashflows go higher. Valuations go higher as replacement costs are higher, so inflation is positive. Unique this time is we're going into an environment where inflation rates persist and rise, but we still have lower interest rates. Combination of the two could be a great tailwind for real estate.
A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary) Rating
Ranking : 5 out of 5
Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 29
Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 1
Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 11
Total Signals / Votes : 41
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