A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert

A Commentary

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Analysis and Opinions about A Commentary

Signal
Opinion
Expert
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 2, 2021
Depending on the company, those with multiples are fine as long they're growing rapidly with strong outlooks. The easy money in the recovery is probably behind us. Higher interest rates normally accompany a stronger economy, which is what is happening, and he sees continuing as we recover. He's not a commodity investor, though there is a serious recovery here; the easy money has been made. Once people can drive in the summer for vacations, he expects this demand to keep oil prices strong. Renewables require a lot of copper and steel to build that infrastructure. In recovery stocks, he owned a few cruiselines, buying low, but sold some.
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Depending on the company, those with multiples are fine as long they're growing rapidly with strong outlooks. The easy money in the recovery is probably behind us. Higher interest rates normally accompany a stronger economy, which is what is happening, and he sees continuing as we recover. He's not a commodity investor, though there is a serious recovery here; the easy money has been made. Once people can drive in the summer for vacations, he expects this demand to keep oil prices strong. Renewables require a lot of copper and steel to build that infrastructure. In recovery stocks, he owned a few cruiselines, buying low, but sold some.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
OPEC. The Saudis have reduced production. Can they can keep oil prices higher? The demand for energy will increase as the world re-opens. The world does not need higher oil prices. Oil producing countries do want higher prices. The world is well supplied. There are calls for $100 oil. $60 oil is probably in the upper range of oil. Looking at the futures market on crude oil, there is an inversion in the curve. Futures are still pushing towards $50. For the next year or so, there may be elevated prices but it is tough to sustain. Demand may never come back to pre-covid levels.
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OPEC. The Saudis have reduced production. Can they can keep oil prices higher? The demand for energy will increase as the world re-opens. The world does not need higher oil prices. Oil producing countries do want higher prices. The world is well supplied. There are calls for $100 oil. $60 oil is probably in the upper range of oil. Looking at the futures market on crude oil, there is an inversion in the curve. Futures are still pushing towards $50. For the next year or so, there may be elevated prices but it is tough to sustain. Demand may never come back to pre-covid levels.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Bond yields. When Powell was asked his thoughts on higher yields, his response was benign. However, the world cannot handle higher yields. How much higher can yields go before the equities markets get stressed? We saw some hints last week that the markets get choppy with slightly higher yields.
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Bond yields. When Powell was asked his thoughts on higher yields, his response was benign. However, the world cannot handle higher yields. How much higher can yields go before the equities markets get stressed? We saw some hints last week that the markets get choppy with slightly higher yields.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Buying US stocks with Canadian dollars. The CAD has strengthened much more than expected. It is linked to OPEC tightening supply and oil prices going higher. Fundamentally, the CAD should be around $0.75. There is a case when there is reflation and oil prices that rise. 75 - 85 cents is the broad range for the next couple years. You could hedge the foreign currency exposure. You could dip into buying US stocks since he does not think the CAD will go below 75 cents in the near term.
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Buying US stocks with Canadian dollars. The CAD has strengthened much more than expected. It is linked to OPEC tightening supply and oil prices going higher. Fundamentally, the CAD should be around $0.75. There is a case when there is reflation and oil prices that rise. 75 - 85 cents is the broad range for the next couple years. You could hedge the foreign currency exposure. You could dip into buying US stocks since he does not think the CAD will go below 75 cents in the near term.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Covered calls. When you are selling calls and the market falls as quickly as it did last March, and then recovers, you get called away since the stock price goes up. When you're bullish, you do not want covered call exposure. You must trade a little, especially during sharp declines and options expire.
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Covered calls. When you are selling calls and the market falls as quickly as it did last March, and then recovers, you get called away since the stock price goes up. When you're bullish, you do not want covered call exposure. You must trade a little, especially during sharp declines and options expire.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Inflation. We are getting asset price inflation and supply constraint inflation. It is very different than demand pull from higher spending power from consumers and regular folks. Until the labour's share of income rises and is willing to spend more, inflation will not be too much of a problem. There is labour market slack in the next couple years so there will not be material core inflation.
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Inflation. We are getting asset price inflation and supply constraint inflation. It is very different than demand pull from higher spending power from consumers and regular folks. Until the labour's share of income rises and is willing to spend more, inflation will not be too much of a problem. There is labour market slack in the next couple years so there will not be material core inflation.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Fixed income. In an inflationary environment, real return bonds makes sense if you have to be in fixed income. You don't have to be in fixed income though. Private debt is an area that gives reasonable yields. You can generate 5-7% returns without additional risk. Floating rate notes is another way to play a rising rate environment.
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Fixed income. In an inflationary environment, real return bonds makes sense if you have to be in fixed income. You don't have to be in fixed income though. Private debt is an area that gives reasonable yields. You can generate 5-7% returns without additional risk. Floating rate notes is another way to play a rising rate environment.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Educational Segment. Interest rates have risen pretty steadily this year. Every time bond yields go up, someone calls the end of the bull market. Bond vigilante is an investor that is gut-check against central banks when they lose control of the fiscal purse. Interest rates have been falling for the last 40 years and this trend continues. In 2017-2018 Feds raised interest rates. The US 10 year needs to get above 3.5% and remain higher to say the trend is changing. We simply cannot afford higher interest rates however. The next tool is Yield Curve Control. Interest rates will be kept low.
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Educational Segment. Interest rates have risen pretty steadily this year. Every time bond yields go up, someone calls the end of the bull market. Bond vigilante is an investor that is gut-check against central banks when they lose control of the fiscal purse. Interest rates have been falling for the last 40 years and this trend continues. In 2017-2018 Feds raised interest rates. The US 10 year needs to get above 3.5% and remain higher to say the trend is changing. We simply cannot afford higher interest rates however. The next tool is Yield Curve Control. Interest rates will be kept low.
N/A
N/A
March 1, 2021

Market. The growth stocks initially did well when the pandemic started, then the cyclicals did well as inflation expectations increased. Inflation expectations have been increasing since last August but got ahead of themselves. Expectations for inflation should pull back somewhat. On a seasonal basis you find inflation tends to pick up until March. Industrials and materials tend to perform well in March and April, but there might be a turning point coming up here shortly.

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Market. The growth stocks initially did well when the pandemic started, then the cyclicals did well as inflation expectations increased. Inflation expectations have been increasing since last August but got ahead of themselves. Expectations for inflation should pull back somewhat. On a seasonal basis you find inflation tends to pick up until March. Industrials and materials tend to perform well in March and April, but there might be a turning point coming up here shortly.

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The initial reaction to higher interest rates is the worst typically. There is some profit taking going on and investors are rotating sectors. Earnings are strong and we must keep a long term view. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. The initial reaction to higher interest rates is the worst typically. There is some profit taking going on and investors are rotating sectors. Earnings are strong and we must keep a long term view. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
The reopening looks more likely and sooner with JNJ's vaccine being approved. Overlooked reopening plays include Ford, Ulta, Federal Realty and others. The airlines are obvious plays, but their balance sheets are in tatters.
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The reopening looks more likely and sooner with JNJ's vaccine being approved. Overlooked reopening plays include Ford, Ulta, Federal Realty and others. The airlines are obvious plays, but their balance sheets are in tatters.
COMMENT
COMMENT
March 1, 2021
Technical analyst Mark Sebastian explains VIX volatility Is there a volatility spike (quick) or swell (slow rise). If you want stocks to rise higher, you want a spike, like today's sharp rally, or in early June and early November. Buy! In swells, volatility slowly rises which happened last August into September as the S&P rose higher--then, markets fell in the autumn. Last week was a classic spike, so expect more upside in stocks; the VIX and S&P were not moving in tandem which happens in swells. We're not in the early stages of a major sell; in fact, the panic is over and the market is starting to roar.
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Technical analyst Mark Sebastian explains VIX volatility Is there a volatility spike (quick) or swell (slow rise). If you want stocks to rise higher, you want a spike, like today's sharp rally, or in early June and early November. Buy! In swells, volatility slowly rises which happened last August into September as the S&P rose higher--then, markets fell in the autumn. Last week was a classic spike, so expect more upside in stocks; the VIX and S&P were not moving in tandem which happens in swells. We're not in the early stages of a major sell; in fact, the panic is over and the market is starting to roar.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 26, 2021

Interest rates. Yesterday the bond rates traded at 1.6%. Rising interest rates means good economic growth. A little rise in bonds is also a good thing. How high should it go? Historically, as long as it does not go above 270 basis points from the low, it's okay. US rates could go back to 3.26% before you get into the pain points, almost a doubling from today. Near term interest rates has caused an intermediate correction in equities of 7%-10% which has happened. Once it's behind us, in the next 2 months, we see a good ride up for small caps and cyclicals. It could be a year for Canada to shine this year.

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General Market Comment
February 26, 2021

Interest rates. Yesterday the bond rates traded at 1.6%. Rising interest rates means good economic growth. A little rise in bonds is also a good thing. How high should it go? Historically, as long as it does not go above 270 basis points from the low, it's okay. US rates could go back to 3.26% before you get into the pain points, almost a doubling from today. Near term interest rates has caused an intermediate correction in equities of 7%-10% which has happened. Once it's behind us, in the next 2 months, we see a good ride up for small caps and cyclicals. It could be a year for Canada to shine this year.

COMMENT
COMMENT
February 26, 2021
FANGS. They peaked around November of last year and they are trailing even today. Overall rates will impact on the near term, but the correction depends on which sector you are in. S&P will be less affected than the tech stocks.
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General Market Comment
February 26, 2021
FANGS. They peaked around November of last year and they are trailing even today. Overall rates will impact on the near term, but the correction depends on which sector you are in. S&P will be less affected than the tech stocks.
COMMENT
COMMENT
February 26, 2021

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. There is lots of worry over interest rates but central banks have vowed to keep interest rates low for at least another year. The current rise comes from sentiment and supply and demand. US bond auctions did not go well this weak due to weaker demand and rates spiked. Inflation may spike but this has not been the case historically with other periods of stimulus. Balance in sector weighting is key. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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General Market Comment
February 26, 2021

Billy Kawasaki’s Insights - Billy’s most-liked answers from 5i Research. There is lots of worry over interest rates but central banks have vowed to keep interest rates low for at least another year. The current rise comes from sentiment and supply and demand. US bond auctions did not go well this weak due to weaker demand and rates spiked. Inflation may spike but this has not been the case historically with other periods of stimulus. Balance in sector weighting is key. Unlock Premium - Try 5i Free

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A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert(A Commentary) Rating

Ranking : 5 out of 5

Bullish - Buy Signals / Votes : 45

Neutral - Hold Signals / Votes : 7

Bearish - Sell Signals / Votes : 24

Total Signals / Votes : 76

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