A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Oil outlook He doesn't own commodities, including Canadian energy. He needs to see in a stock consistent growth and cash flow. Oil is at the whim of global prices. Too volatile and inconsistent. He owns oil indirectly, like through CNR which ships oil.

Market Outlook He thinks we are in a "Booming Depression" in the market. The market no longer trades on fundamentals -- it trades on liquidity. And it looks like the central banks are already talking about more QE coming up. A year end rally into January is happening right now. Fair value on the S&P, he believes, is around 3720 -- compared to today's 3275 level. His quant model has been pointing to this value for some time now and with liquidity still coming in, thanks to QE, there is a real potential for a market "melt up".

CAD$ He sees nothing positive in the Canadian market presently. Real estate in the Toronto market is ridiculous. It would be interesting if the CAD$ dropped to the mid-$0.60s. Watch your exposure in Canada, he warns.

Your funds under performing? He is a value trader. Value beats growth 7 out of 10 years, but this has reversed in the past three years. The liquidity coming from Central Banks is reversing this right now. When Value stocks return, there will be massive swings in this trend back to normal.

2020 outlook: more gains to come. Markets can trend for a long time, and the cycle isn't ending anytime soon. Trump trade issues look they're fading and Brexit problems may soon fade. The outlook is good for stocks. True, anything can happen in world news. Iran stood down in the war threat this past week with America. Today's jobs numbers were good enough, not great, but good enough. Manufacturing is weak in America and the world. Boeing has continued woes. Earnings season is coming and will telegraph the future.

Better to sell a stock, pays the capital gains, then buyback at least 25% lower, or use new money to buy it (in an unregistered account)? If you're very bullish--confident that a high-flying stock will fall, then you can do sell-and-buyback later 34-50% lower. But you can't know that for sure. This is a tactical swing, based on a longer-term plan and a firm asset allocation (say, 60/40 stocks/bonds). It will work if you guess it for sure.

Difference between cash flow and EPS? In oil, you talk cash flow per share growth; EPS with banks. Payout ratios apply to both metrics, and be very different sometimes. Say a power stock has a payout ratio of earnings at 200%, but 42% free cash flow--vastly different. Hard to summarize the difference. Instead, you must know the company and balance sheet.

Market. December of last year was very bad and then we had a fantastic year and then news came out and who know what will happen. She is a bottom up stock picker. The strategy is to look for good management teams. Investors should expect more volatility. The political events seem to be digested very quickly even if creating a lot of noise in the market. It's going to continue to be a tale of winners and losers.

People are worried about where things are going from here. The most important thing is knowing when you need the cash. You should not be forced to sell into a depressed market. Also you need to stay balanced.

A good year for 2019? 2019 turned out be the best year of the decade for the TSX, up 95% in total returns when you include dividends. Dividends are often neglected when investors tally up their total returns.

Is there more juice in 2020? We think so. Doesn't see any reason why we don't march higher perhaps toward triple digit returns in the next decade, though not in a straight line. What was anomalous in the past decade was the subdued volatility. Expects higher prices over the next decade, but in a choppy fashion.

What does 2020 hold for the Canadian oil patch? In the first inning of a resurgence in energy. We won't go back to the days of $140 a barrel, but the psychology and sentiment of last fall are about as abysmal as you're going to get. Investors are ignoring the sector, yet the producers are generating a lot of free cash and buying back shares, things that the market will reward in due course.

What do you look for on rumours that a company's being acquired? You wouldn't like to sit on a stool with only 1 leg, so they look for companies that have 3 or 4 legs to the stool. So look for other qualities. Assess the credibility of the bid, regulatory approvals, sharehold approval, any competing bids.

How to invest in the theme of water as the new oil? Likes the theme of infrastructure. Owns it indirectly through BAM. For a direct play on infrastructure like water, Brookfield Infrastructure would be good.