A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)
COMMENT
US Healthcare? Healthcare generally under-preforms in election years. A safer pick would be GILD, for their COVID-19 research and HIV drugs.
Shane ObataUnknown
COMMENT
Gold levered ETFs? The US dollar has been on fire lately, crushing all other currencies. This is generally not good for gold. He likes gold as he thinks interest rates will stay low for a long time to come as the opportunity cost to hold gold is dropping. He was surprised to see how much gold has fallen lately. If you don't understand how futures curves and swaps work you should avoid buying levered products due to the inherent decay in them.
Shane ObataUnknown
COMMENT
Gold levered ETFs? The US dollar has been on fire lately, crushing all other currencies. This is generally not good for gold. He likes gold as he thinks interest rates will stay low for a long time to come as the opportunity cost to hold gold is dropping. He was surprised to see how much gold has fallen lately. If you don't understand how futures curves and swaps work you should avoid buying levered products due to the inherent decay in them.
Shane ObataUnknown
BUY
COMMENT
Small caps? Small caps have historically out performed bigger companies. However, coming back to safety, big players that can still grow earnings at 20% are the safer way to go. Stick with the bigger names for now.
Shane ObataUnknown
COMMENT
USD? He is not a currrency specialist. Exposure to the US and Europe and Canada, creates a natural hedge for them. He has heard chatter for a potential accord to weaken the US dollar and the US government would not be adverse to it. You can choose to hedge your exposure through various Canadian offerings.
Shane ObataUnknown
N/A
Market. He showed a chart that was pre-empted on Monday's educational segment of Berman's Call. Vix readings are same as the extremes in 2008 following the Leman bankruptcy. The Vix stayed elevated for months and months until March of 2009. He would encourage people to understand the VIX and north of 40 is indicates too much volatility to catch falling knives. He then outlined money falling into money market funds. At some point we are going to get a phenomenal rally. People ask where the bottom is but we need to see the VIX below 40. It is 75-80 recently. He was aggressively buying with the S&P at these levels at Christmas of 2018 but now he is not.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
N/A
Banks. The analysts have not started to assess long term numbers. Wall Street is predicting a 'V' shape. Earnings will fall. He feels we will hit 1400 on the S&P.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
N/A
Hedged or unhedged. The US dollar is an asset class to protect people as the Canadian dollar goes down. Yesterday he hedged all his holdings back to Canadian Dollars.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
N/A
Why are bond ETFs going down? Bonds are not very liquid right now. The discount in ETFs is reflecting where the true markets are. Spreads are blowing out to very wide levels. The ETF trades at a discount to the underlying because of illiquidity of the underlying bonds.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
WATCH
Pot Stocks and increased demand from Pandemic. In this part of the cycle where recession is the biggest risk, you want quality companies with clean balance sheets and not a lot of debt. Look at getting back into it when things normalize again.
Larry Berman CFA, CMT, CTAUnknown
COMMENT
The economy is shutting down and we're heading to the PM invoking the War Measures Act. One in four businesses could go out of business, and is delaying the tax-filing deadline. Small businesses need help. How deep will this go? This is happening while the global economy was slowing down and we just came off the trade war. This could be a long, slow recovery, but the good news--this will end. It always does, but how long will it take to dig out of that hole? The hard thing is to decide to buy in this market and not get scared out of it. Stay invested, but prudently buy. Look for companies with strong financials that will survive. There have been dramatic dividend cuts in energy, but in this environment why pay dividends at all? Why not hold onto capital?
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