A Comment -- General Comments From an Expert (A Commentary)

Educational Segment. When China slows, credit is contracting in China. When markets in the region goes sideways, then China needs to increase growth by increasing credit. The cycle has been reliable at inducing forward stock prices. Since the US has ramped up the tightening talk, the yield curve is flattening again. Once it inverts, then you have to be careful. Feds are downplaying the yield curve, but this could be a place for policy mistakes. There will be trouble steepening the yield curve. Inflation is persistent. We could see the yield curve invert and a recession. Growth is likely coming from the Asia Pacific markets. US will likely pull off. Look oversees for opportunities.

Surprises out of the Bank of Canada and Feds. BoC did not raise rates like he expected, and the Feds were hawkish. Level of uncertainty is very high. Technical levels are indicating that there was a tradable bottom. If earnings remain good, markets could stabilize. Risk of a policy mistake is really big.

The old adage of "so goes January, so goes the year" sticks. In the second year of a president is the worst year normally. There is a seasonality of it being a poor year. Hard to be bullish. Looking at international exposure. Value over growth this year.

Interest rate increases caused by higher inflation are positive for real estate which involves real assets. However you need to have good pricing power involving positive supply/demand fundamentals. Geography is important - consider areas where there is employment growth. The office market is facing a headwind because of more working from home. There could be a net reduction of 15% in the office market.

Caller wanted to know which of their funds would be best to buy. There are many types of products - go to the website, read the descriptions and choose which is best for the caller.

The growth selling may be over and the rally may have begun after today's huge move. This month has been a nightmare for growth investors after Jay Powell turned hawkish. The turning point may have been Netflix's earnings report on Jan. 20; shares tanked. Another was on Jan. 26 Servicenow reported a tremendous quarter and mentioned labour costs and other issues that weren't tied to rising rates. The day before, Microsoft reported a strong quarter, which rallied. Last Thursday, Apple reported that it had overcome supply shortages; they and Mastercard reported blockbuster quarters and no factory shortages. That said, Robinhood reported a bad quarter, but still popped. Today, Netflix's CEO reported he bought a lot of shares. He's never believed in the growth vs. value dichotomy. If you want a value stock, pick one without supply and labour shortages.

Carly Garner, technical analyst, predictions--some contrary Even though the FEs is reducing bond purchases, we've had two years of massive QE. That overhang (history says) will last years, not months. Why? Because QE enlraged the suppl of money. QE is relatively new, sreally started in the Great Recession. Now feels a lot like 2010-11 when the Fed injected a lot of QE which pushed stocks higher. In that period, we saw a boom in commodities just like now. Corn could head to another boom. Crude oil is near overbought status, so the upside could be limited with a strong ceiling around $90/barrel, then could fall back as low as $62, but the bottom is cushioned by the overhang of QE. A decline in oil prices could reduce the number of interest rate hikes. Gold and silver could see a lot of upside, just like in 2010-11. The market is very bearish bonds, but Garner detects a long-term bull market in metals. If Powell takes a Janet Yellin approach, his rate hikes could span years, not months. In short, the momentum of recent years will push assets higher.

Can Jay Powell engineer a soft landing by tapering and raising rates. Critics say Powell is behind the curve--not raising rates fast enough, so now he's sounding more hawkish and accelerating hikes. Some say he will hikes seven times this year. He disagrees, because Powell learned a lesson in late 2018 when he hiked rates quickly. This time, Powell has succeeded in navigating Covid and in allowing full employment happen before he makes a move.

Believes oil will hit $100/barrel by 2023. Fundamentals support continued strength in energy prices. Biggest mistake shareholders can make is selling too early. Normalization of oil demand, end of US shale hyper-growth and low investment will raise oil prices.

Average Canadian energy company can privatize + pay off debt in under 3 years using cash flow at $100/barrel. Remains bullish on oil prices. Sees Canadian energy as a 5-6 year investment thesis. Average Canadian energy company has 133% potential upside at $100/barrel.

Markets. Tech selloff means some opportunities. Despite talk of rate increases, 30-year US treasuries still yielding only 2.1%, which suggests supply chain issues are transitory, and inflation will fall back sooner rather than later. Supply issues are starting to abate, and semiconductor issues will be resolved in the next 12-18 months. High bond yields won't be much of an issue to stop equity markets.

Does Fed have scope to raise rates? Yes. Healthy that interest rates get lifted a number of times. One, to make clear that the Fed won't let inflation get out of control. Two, gives them more tools down the road when the next recession comes along. Rates won't get to levels seen over the past several years anytime soon, but they will most certainly be higher than they are today.

Streaming competition. There will only be a few companies left at the end of the day, and NFLX should be one of them. He owns BCE, DISCA, and DIS. Prices will probably go up as the field narrows, underpinning profitability.